A Swede who lives in Finland and who is lost in Euroland - the wonderful world of Eurovision
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Saturday, March 14, 2015

Melodifestivalen 2015: open goal for Måns

Woke up feeling a small amount of butterflies in my tummy, which is my favourite way of waking up on any day with a bigger ESC-related event.

What these butterflies think they are doing is a whole different question, though. I can't recall the last time I found it easier to predict a Melodifestivalen winner. How far back do we have to go? Carola 2006? Carola 1991?

Predicting some other placings - like the ones from 2 to 12, for instance - is a bit harder. But it has to be Måns for Vienna.

At the same time, being this sure also creates a heap of wicked thoughts at the back of my head. I remember how Måns suddenly lost all his support in the 2009 final. How the juries derailed Nanne Grönvall in 2005. How the most cleverly plotted happy ends can go wrong at times. I guess that's what triggers the butterflies - the knowledge that something predictable easily can turn into a nail biter in this weird competition.

Since I already ranked all the songs of this year I won't review them again, I'll just content myself with guessing the final outcome.

12. JTR - Building It Up
This is the final, lads. It's no longer good enough to just be cute and mess around.

11. Dinah Nah - Make Me (La La La)
This kind of entry usually struggles in Melodifestivalen. Dinah already made it further than most and should be happy with that.

10. Jessica Andersson - Can't Hurt Me Now
Back in the day, a ballad could allow itself to be well performed but dull and the juries would vote for it anyway. One jury or two will reward this, enough to keep Jessica away from the last place.

9. Linus Svenning - Forever Starts Today
Generally very nice but forgettable. Will get a few points here and there but will be nobody's favourite in this pretty strong line-up.

8. Magnus Carlsson - Möt mig i Gamla stan
Everybody loves a good comeback and Magnus is well loved, but this song probably doesn't feel exciting enough in a final in 2015.

7. Samir & Viktor - Groupie
How far will this go? A clear favourite to get nul points by the jury - and how strong is their fan base really? Given that they failed to qualify straight to the final?

6. Hasse Andersson - Guld och gröna skogar
The feelgood factor should never be underestimated and this is a perfect closing number.

5. Jon Henrik Fjällgren - Jag är fri (Manne leam frijje)
I suspect the international juries will look at this and see nothing but kitsch, rate it poorly and ruin its chances for a top three placing.

4. Eric Saade - Sting
Does Saade still have it? I'm not sure. Liked this one at first, than it started growing off me. Will get fair support from both jury and televote but my guess is it won't be enough.

3. Isa - Don't Stop
I admit to this being wishful thinking but Isa is such a star and loads her performance with a crazy amount of energy. I hope she will get rewarded for that and that the juries won't deduct points for the obvious likeness of other songs already in existence.

2. Mariette - Don't Stop Believing
This song never takes off for me but I think this is the kind of performance that especially the juries will love. I guess Mariette will be a very close 2nd after the jury vote.

1. Måns Zelmerlöw - Heroes
I'm sorry, nervous butterflies. You will just have to go. This can only end in one way. Måns will lead after the jury vote and will blow everyone else away when the televote comes in.

Melodifestivalen can be seen live at 20:00 CET on the SVT website.

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