Tobson's Big ESC 2019 review, part 3

Since 2013, the running order is no longer the result of a draw. Someone involved in the production instead sequences the songs in order to make a smooth presentation and - hopefully - "good tv".

In many ways it was a good decision. When there are 26 songs, the viewers need a good running order to make it through. When the seventh standard ballad invades the stage - this happened more than a few times when we had a proper draw - few viewers enjoy themselves and start reaching for the remote control. Sequencing is a good thing when done well.

However, since 2013 the same person - Sweden's Christer Björkman - has done the sequencing on at least five occasions and maybe that is beginning to shine through. Should there be a clause saying that the responsibility for the running order cannot be held by the same person too many times?

If you want to check out my opinions on the other songs of this semi, you find them in part one and part two.


13 ICELAND
Hatari - Hatrið mun sigra

One of the problems with the ESC is that it is a contest and most people taking part in it would like to be liked and appreciated and voted for. A lineup where everyone is constantly on their best behaviour can be a bit dull. Lucky break then that Iceland is back to form, ready to shake things up with this warning from the future where everything dear to us is broken down and hate will prevail. This contains more sharp edges than we've seen for years and this is likely to offend as many as it will please.

Qualifier:
Yes, absolutely. It must be. Had the live singing been better in the chorus, this could even have been a potential winner.

My grade: 4/5


14 ESTONIA
Victor Crone / Storm

Victor Crone was a delightful sidekick to Behrang Miri in Melodifestivalen 2015 and I have found myself wondering whatever happened to him after that. I never thought he would show up in Estonia, defending the worst kind of washed-up and bleak radio pop of the kind certain commercial radio stations can never get enough of. What a shame. And how terribly disappointing it is seeing Stig Rästa writing something like this when we all know what he is capable of.

Qualifier:
You never know as a large section of the audience really enjoys stuff like this. Or why would they listen to those radio stations in question? Still, my gut feeling tells me this is just too forgettable to go anywhere. It's a no from me.

My grade: 1/5


15 PORTUGAL
Conan Osiris / Telemovéis

Portugal finally scored their first victory in 2017 and now an unusually large part of the fandom think they could be heading for a repeat run. Talk about getting your mojo working! This is a very experimental track with musical influences from here and there and everywhere, suggestively performed by Conan and his dancer. Maybe it is absolutely brilliant but this one keeps flying well over my head. I'd love to love Portugal but to me this is just three minutes of posing and an attempt to make yourself more interesting than you are. I hear the qualities but the final package is not my thing.

Qualifier:
Yes. I bet all its fans out there are right in some way. It should be in the final and will be in the final. Then it is anyone's guess how well it will work there.

My grade: 2/5


16 GREECE
Katerine Duska / Better Love

Iceland finally found their way back on track and so did Greece, apparently. After several years of half-hearted attempts - it must be hard to keep focus while your government first dismantles your public broadcaster, then revives it again - we finally get a focus and contemporary entry, radio friendly and with hit potential. The only problem here is perhaps that it is so much of a radio song that it won't shake audiences enough to get the highest points but this one should have some solid scoring ahead of itself anyway.

Qualifier:
Yes. Clearly. One of the best songs in the running.

My grade: 4/5


17 SAN MARINO
Serhat / Say Na Na Na

Isn't the last place usually reserved for something really good and therefore we could be pretty sure that whoever gets that spot is a sure qualifier? Wrong. That's not how it works. Sometimes the last spot is also a way to keep something unappealing out of sight for as long as possible, to ensure viewers will stay tuned until the end and not zap to another channel. In San Marino's case, however, that can still work to their advantage. A man in his 50's with a message that everything will be good if you sing a happy tune is pretty ridiculous. But after many competitors taking themselves Very Seriously Indeed, this could come across as a very happy and unpretentious closing point. If you don't know what to vote for by now, maybe Serhat will feel like your man.

Qualifier:
I am going to say yes. The happy and lightweight factor could very well be just enough for San Marino to conquer the tenth place. It would be sweet if they did.

My grade: 2/5


UKRAINE (Not participating)
Maruv / Siren Song

It's hard to keep this contest as unpolitical as the EBU would want it to be and even harder when some active participants find themselves at war. The winner of the long Ukranian national final found herself humiliated on live television and then blackmailed by the national broadcaster: if she didn't publicly severe ties with her (Russian) management and record label, she would be disqualified. She refused and the plan backfired spectacularly as all other NF participants refused to take Maruv's place. NTU pulled out of the contest altogether.

A really stupid move as this would have been this year's game changer and the entry that would have blown the likes of Cyprus, Switzerland and Iceland out of the water. Sexy and catchy, yet with a very dark undercurrent of menace, it would have troubled and enthused the masses. A great loss for the contest but if the NTU is going to keep bullying their own participants in this way there is no need for them to come back at all.

Question:
Why are so many of the songs pulled out of the competition like that brilliant? Broadcasters could pull out with their Piero Esteriore-entries instead.

My grade: 5/5


If you want to agree or disagree with me, please leave a comment or send me a tweet. All the preview clips can be seen here.

Tweet to @TobsonHelsinki

Tobson's Big ESC 2018 review, part 1

We are very, very close to the 2018 Eurovision Song Contest and I for one can't wait to see how Portugal will pull off hosting the ESC after waiting for this opportunity for so long.

Fate has been nice to RTP as it handed them the strongest lineup for many years to work with. Many of these songs are so good, they need no LED screens to make them come alive and shine.

Here are my thoughts on the songs, judging from this years preview clips, which you can see on the official Eurovision YouTube Channel.

01. AZERBAIJAN
Aisel / X My Heart

There are many interesting things going on in the running order this year. Are they clues? Quite certainly Christer Björkman has a finger or two in this pie. Why would he put a song like this first of all in the semi? It is nice and a good opener but lacks any kind of personality or temper or anything to make it stand out in a semi as strong as this. Is this the year when Azerbaijan falls out already in the semi?

Qualifier:
I wouldn't bet my house on it.

My grade: 2/5

02. ICELAND
Ari Ólafsson / Our Choice

Somebody could write a scientific essay on when Iceland lost their mojo in this contest. Was it when Yohanna managed to take something sweet and inoffensive and turn it into a silver medal in Moscow 2009? After last year's attempt at edge, Iceland is back at the sweet and inoffensive. Young Ari is a good singer and an adorable personality but this song is so terribly clichéd and dated that it defies description. And the lyrics is just the final kiss of death.

Qualifier:
No. The most likely contender to end last in the entire semi.

My grade: 1/5

03. ALBANIA
Eugent Bushpepa / Mall

Albania does a whole lot of things right. They stay true to their own selves, they keep sending songs that say something about the local music scene performed by local stars. And yet they have struggled to make an impact lately. This song is less complicated and more accessible than recent efforts and Eugent delivers the goods like he really means whatever he is singing. Had this been drawn into the weaker second semi instead, it could really have stood a chance.

Qualifier:
No. There are too many good songs fighting it out for only ten spots. Rotten luck but that's the rules of the game.

My grade: 2/5

04. BELGIUM
Sennek / A Matter Of Time

After three consecutive killer songs from Wallonia, also Flanders woke up and copied the winning concept of their countrymen: sniff out some fresh talent and give them more or less complete liberty to create a compelling entry. And would you believe it - it works also across the linguistic border. Rather Bond-esque (a bit of a trend this year) and most compelling, performed by an intriguing singer.

Qualifier:
Yes. This must qualify or everyone must resign.

My grade: 5/5

05. CZECH REPUBLIC
Mikolas Josef / Lie To Me

The first time I heard this song I thought it was really super annoying. There is a fine line between being annoying and entertaining, it seems. Dumb but irresistibly catchy, performed by someone who knows exactly what it takes to make a package like this work. My only regret is that the camel is not allowed on stage.

Qualifier:
Yes. You bet. And for the first time, Czech republic could make it into the higher regions of the top ten too.

My grade: 4/5

06. LITHUANIA
Ieva Zasimauskaitė / When We're Old

One thing is certain - you never know in advance what sort of song Lithuania will come up with. This one is the most sincere and tender thing they have entered in a long time, sung in a delicate way by a very likeable singer. The kind of entry that would really deserve to get rewarded big time.

Qualifier:
No. I'm afraid not. Had this one been drawn in the second half, then maybe. Now it will be too intimate too early on in the running order and get forgotten. Unless the juries absolutely adore it and save it.

My grade: 3/5

07. ISRAEL
Netta / Toy

40 years after Izhar Cohen and 20 years after Dana International - wouldn't it be nice if Israel won the contest with something surprising again? Netta is a real personality with a strong and personable voice and the chicken clucking gimmick is sheer brilliance. However, this entry is also sure to be very divisive. How well with it click with a mainstream audience in the end?

Qualifier:
Oh yes. That's hardly a problem. The question is how far this craziness will go in the final.

My grade: 4/5

08. BELARUS
Alekseev / Forever

More than one has described the first semi in Lisbon as a "blood bath". Colourful metaphor and all, but many of the songs lined up would have stood a better chance in the second semi. Like Belarus, whose pop song is quite good - despite the fact that it breaks the rules and should be disqualified - but maybe not good enough to break through. The new edit does it no favours and it had been nice had Alekseev been able to sing it properly live.

Qualifier:
Borderline but my gut feeling tells me this one will be out by quite a slim margin.

My grade: 2/5

09. ESTONIA
Elina Nechayeva / La forza

What a relief when somebody is finally doing proper opera singing at Eurovision. No funny games, no pop verses, no funny hats. Elina is just singing her modern aria beautifully and gracefully. Regardless if she can keep the dress projections from the national final or not, this is an oasis of class and style.

Qualifier:
It does run the risk of being the Blackbird of the year, but I do think Estonia is back in the final with this one.

My grade: 3/5

10. BULGARIA
Equinox / Bones

Bulgaria came back to the ESC transformed into a nation of modern and compelling pop and they stay true to form also this year. Bones is perhaps more complicated and less instant and a more risky choice. Applause for anyone not willing to just play it safe!

Qualifier:
Yes, most certainly. This is maybe not winning material like last year, but getting to the final should be a walk in the park.

My grade: 3/5

Tobson's Big ESC 2017 Review, part 8

The word I used more than any other - I suppose, I didn't actually count back - is "borderline". Semi two has some obvious qualifiers as well as a couple of equally obvious non-qualifiers. But then? This year's trend is radio-friendly pop songs that are nice - and in most cases good - but not extraordinarily personable. It will be really hard to tell who will qualify or not until you've seen them perform. Whoever manages to inject some originality in their song will make it through.

14. BELARUS
NAVIBAND / Historyja majho zyccia

For the first time ever, Belarus decided to rely on their own language. Of course I am positive about a such a decision but what moves me even more is that for the first time in many year, the Belarusian entry seems to be coming from a really genuine place. It is happy, it is cheerful and it feels real. It also feels a bit repetitive before three minutes have passed but perhaps that's a minor detail in the great sum of things.

Qualifier:
In order not to exhaust the word borderline, I am going to say yes. This sounds very different from anything else and the viewers are going to recognise that. If the band manages to maintain the energy of their clip and put that into motion on stage, this could go pretty far.

My grade: 3/5



NAVIBAND / Historyja majho zyccia (Belarus 2017 preview)

15. BULGARIA
Kristian Kostov / Beautiful Mess

Last year's successful comeback seems to have triggered something in Bulgaria and for the second year running they enter a real contender. This time in the shape of teenage heart-throb Kristian, who is the first ever ESC entrant born after the millennium bug. The Moscow-based singer has a strange and almost hypnotic presence, an excellent voice and a beautifully written song. Maybe the verses are stronger than the chorus, but this is a package designed to impress. It is also the third song in this semi co-written by Joacim Persson.

Qualifier:
Yes. And if Italy for some reason would not win, this is one of the possible shock winner candidates. Possibly also the start of an international career for Kristian Kostov.

My grade: 4/5



Kristian Kostov / Beautiful Mess (Bulgaria 2017 preview)

16. LITHUANIA
Fusedmarc / Rain of Revolution

Whatever you'd like to say about Lithuania, nobody can deny that they are fully doing their own thing in this contest. During their never-ending national final the viewers finally grew tired of the obvious favourite and opted for this little piece instead. There are actually many bits and pieces I like here: the energy of the verses, the groove of the backing singers that remained in plain sight at least in the NF, and the crazy presence of the lead singer. This is the most stylish and interesting failure of the year. The musical equivalent of two trains crashing into each other, rolling off a cliff, falling onto a nuclear plant.

Qualifier:
No. Most definitely not. As soon as the singer starts screaming "Yeah-Yeah!" for the umpti-eleventh time all hope is gone. But I totally prefer this to many more polished and less interesting entires.

My grade: 2/5



Fusedmarc / Rain of Revolution (Lithuania 2017 preview)

17. ESTONIA
Koit Toome & Laura / Verona

Estonia delivers yet another polished and engaging pop pastry and one has to wonder how they really do it. How can such a small country be so consistent and send in so many really good songs? This one has an unusual structure, which could be a bit of a gamble. Koit and Laura are delivering well but would need some more passion and chemistry compared to the national final. The song has also been released in several different versions already, which makes me think this team are maybe not as confident as they would have every reason to be.

Qualifier:
Yes, unless the Estonians have thought out some over-complicated stage stunt to drag the attention away from the actual song. Remember last year's card trick? If Belgium runs the risk of being the shock non-qualifier in the first semi, Estonia could be running the same risk here.

My grade: 4/5



Koit Toome & Laura / Verona (Estonia 2017 preview)

18. ISRAEL
IMRI / I Feel Alive

The second semi ends pretty much like the first semi began. Israel seems to have found its way back to a concept that works at Eurovision. Had this been the 1980's, a group of happy backing vocalists would have filled the stage and danced an energetic dance before this song was over. IMRI is a beautiful young man who - very much like Robin Bengtsson - would have deserved something more interesting to perform. The etno touch that comes in by the end is nice and adds a certain flavour but it is nowhere near enough to make this a favourite.

Qualifier:
Yes. Just like Belgium last year, being last in the semi will mean all the difference. This one will easily dance its way into the final and could end up in a much higher position than it deserves in the end. Just like Sweden this year.

My grade: 2/5



IMRI / I Feel Alive (Israel 2017 preview)

Eesti laul 2017: all eyes on Estonia

It is not more than fair to say that the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest lineup is far from impressive so far. We know half the songs and there are few things to enthuse audiences or to write home about. If Estonia play their cards right tonight, they could easily become one of the top contenders come May.

Twenty songs were whittled down to the final ten that will fight it out in tonight's show. They will be voted upon by the audience as well as the usually totally unpredictable expert jury. The three top placed songs will proceed into a super final where the viewers will have the final word on who is sent to Kyiv.

01. Liis Lemsalu / Running
A very good opening number that above all has a captivating verse and build-up only to leap into a disappointingly flat chorus.
Grade: 2/5 

02. Koit Toome & Laura / Verona
Like the electropop cousin of "Goodbye To Yesterday", this one has the same advantages and the same weaknesses - a bit more chemistry between the singers wouldn't harm - but as a song this is the best one in the running.
Grade: 4/5

03. Whogaux & Karl-Kristjan feat Maian / Have You Now
Musically talented and sophisticated but a bit too laid-back and a tad too forgettable to be a good choice for Kyiv.
Grade: 2/5

04. Lenna Kuurmaa / Slingshot
As always, this ex-Vanilla Ninja star brings in something good and totally reliable. Maybe she lost something in her switch to English but this is still a most solid entry.
Grade: 3/5

05. Daniel Levi / All I Need
Slick voice and slick production in what sounds like a sure-fire radio hit. I'd say it isn't direct enough to work in a song contest where you only have three minutes to impress the audience, but not a bad effort.
Grade: 2/5

06. Elina Born / In Or Out
A slightly stressed feeling and a bit of a risqué wardrobe could work against this one, but if Estonia looks past that there is a good and catchy song performed by a singer who only gets better and better. Should be a contender.
Grade: 3/5

07. Ivo Linna / Suur loterii 
Old-fashioned? You bet. But also well performed by a most beloved singer Estonia has cherished since the 1970's. This could be a surprise in the making but hardly an international winner.
Grade: 2/5

08. Rasmus Rändvee / This Love
The most temperamental rocker in the line-up that would at least kick Cyprus out the window with ease in Kyiv. An outsider but in no way chanceless.
Grade: 3/5

09. Ariadne / Feel Me Now
A well-written and convincing pop ditty that really would have needed a stronger performance. Young Ariadne is far too polite and insecure to break through the screens, lacking any kind of wow factor.
Grade: 2/5

10. Kerli / Spirit Animal
Estonia's own Krista Siegfrids has never been closer to grabbing the trophy for herself than she is this time. Catchy, quirky and very easily accessible.
Grade: 4/5

So - what will Estonia do? Predicting the jury's verdict - not to mention those famously unpredictable televoters - is like trying to predict what shape the season's first snowflake will have. But here's my shot at a top three:

3. Elina Born
Because she is one heck of a performer and deserves every bit of praise and success.

2. Koit & Laura
Because the presentation could be a bit too cold in the end

1. Kerli
Because it is her turn and she has a better starting position. But this could turn any which way still.

Secretly I hope for my top two to be reversed but any of these three could give Estonia a solid placing in Kyiv. And so could Rasmus and Lenna too.

Eesti laul begins at 18:30 CET and can be seen online here.

Semi 1: 13 Estonia / Play

When I make my predictions I try not to be influenced by anything else than my own instinct, taste and backbone reactions. Especially I try not to pay attention to what "everybody" says. Easier said than done, but I try to.

Sometimes it is extra hard. In my book Jüri Pootsmann should be bang in the final with his classy and slightly Bond-esque "Play", penned by last year's Estonian representative Stig Rästa. For me, Jüri is cool beyond words with a slightly dangerous edge, like he had a volcano hidden in his chest, ready to erupt at any given moment.

It's just that too many people seem not to see what I see or hear what I hear. Could it be "Play" is not as easily accessible as I thought it would be?

Qualifier:
Yes. I decided that I'm probably right and those other people are wrong. Jüri must be in the final and that's just it.

My grade: 4/5



Jüri Pootsmann / Play (Estonia 2016 preview clip)

December 19: Ines

For some years, Estonian tv didn't really get anything right when it came down to selecting an entry for Eurovision. The formerly so successful Baltic state suddenly found themselves doing really badly in the international finals.

In 2003, their seemingly fool-proof system of having international experts selecting the winner had backfired and lead to a dismal placing in Riga. After that, the Estonian public was allowed to chose by televoting for two years, but neither one of their winners made it to the big ESC final. It was time to bring the international experts back.

It could have been a good idea, had they themselves selected more relevant and up-to-date experts. Instead the bunch in question rejected Ines' big comeback in favour of a slick but anaemic schlager that would go on to crash and burn in Athens.

Personally, I can't remember making a longer face at any national final I have ever been to and I still wish for Estonia to send Ines to the big thing for a second attempt some day when the stars align.



Ines / Iseendale (Estonia NF 2006)

December 8: Eha

After winning and successfully hosting the Eurovision Song Contest - also being the first former Soviet Union republic to do so - Estonia lost their way and spent many years erring around, lost in the woods, with not much success in any way.

It wouldn't have had to be like that, though. There were always good songs at Eurolaul but some of the years there were international judges who wouldn't know a good song if it punched them in the face.

Or there would be a televote that would come up with equally dubious results.

The Estonian public didn't get anywhere near as excited as they should over this quirky, strutting piece of Kylie-electronica that is really catchy and pretty funny at the same time. It came across better in the preview, I'll admit as much, but it would have made for way more interesting viewing in Kyiv than Suntribe did.



Eha / Gotta Go (Estonia NF 2005)

Semi 1: and the results came in

The first results are in, the first ten envelopes are opened and it for a while it felt like I got half of the finalists wrong. In the end I got seven countries right.

I had to count back to get that. The sequence were the finalists were revealed was the single weakest point in the entire show.

You have two hours to stage a semi final of 16 songs. The entries are done with quite quickly and then you throw in everything and the kitchen sink in order to fill the rest of the show.

You fill and you fill and you fill and suddenly you filled a bit too much and what should be the climax, full of suspense, is something you rush by with no time for any excitement to build. Nul points for that. It must change for the second semi. Be a bit professional.

Albania, Armenia and Greece made it to the final while I thought they would be out. What can I say about that? Arbitrary, like I said in my prediction earlier. It could have gone either way. Albania delivered a fine vocal performance but Armenia was messy and Greece dull. It's a mystery to me how either one made it.

Finland, Moldova and Netherlands are out while I predicted them to be in. Already yesterday I was on the verge of predicting a Dutch flop, during the broadcast I felt sure it wouldn't work. Static and without a trace of charm.

Also Moldova came across as really charmless and probably lost all their chances by performing first. And by selecting a performer as void of radiation as this particular one. As for Finland - Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät didn't quite shine when their big moment came. For them and their career it doesn't matter.

It doesn't matter for me either. After seeing all 16 entrants tonight, only two things stood out as truly important to me: to have Belgium and Estonia in the final. I was never really worried, I guessed they would save Belgium for one of the last. Being the very last could very well indicate that Loïc did very well tonight indeed.

I won't start chanting for Bruxelles 2016 just yet. I'll just conclude that all is well that ends well, and with Belgium in the final it ended very well from my point of view.

Semi 1: 07 Estonia

Estonia at Eurovision is often like a tiny planet of their own, doing very much their own thing, seemingly without even contemplating whether the rest of the world will enjoy their songs or not.

Not seldom, the world ends up quite appreciating the quirks of Estonia. And not seldom, their songs are really melodic, easy-going and truly likeable.

This year they really hit the bullseye, managing to be catchy, modern and original at the same time. The fact that it's a duet singing about a broken relationship made several people compare it to the successful Dutch entry of last year, but that's a bit of a lazy comparison. If anything, it is a bit similar to this classy duet between Ville Valo & Natalia Avelon a few years ago.

An early favourite to win the entire contest, but I doubt it will go all that way. The live performance is strong but reflects the distance and coldness of the lyrics, and perhaps a large enough portion of the audience won't get it or will feel rejected in turn.

Qualifier:
Yes. This is the first song of the first semi where I feel fully confident that this is a sure qualifier. And then my guess is that Estonia will have its first top five showing since Tallinn 2002.

Grade: 4/5



Stig Rästa & Elina Born - Goodbye To Yesterday (Estonia 2015)

The director is in power

This year's Eurovision is slowly sinking in - there are so many aspects to analyse and get your head around. The result is of course the first thing that stands out for everyone but then there are all the tiny details that lead up to the result.

One of the things that stood out for me already after the first semi final was the camera work.

Camera work is one of the vital things in the sense that it is something the average tv-viewer is unaware of but that can still make or break an entry.

A show where people perform music must be melodic, follow the rhythm, follow the flow of the performance. Disturbingly often the Copenhagen director did something else. The images went against the flow instead of with it.

The biggest single problem is that the director was as blown away by the really great stage set the way most other people were. It's just that the director has a lot of power in this contest. Good camera work can get the audience onboard a weaker entry, lousy camera work can make a good entry look bad.

Two countries in particular suffered from this - Israel and Estonia. On-screen their performers looked like strangers, like people dancing somewhere in the distance, like those people in a party that you never really connect with or warm to. The camera never allows the viewer to establish eye contact with either Mei nor Tanja and three minutes later you don't feel like you ever really saw them during their performance.

Maybe their songs were not strong enough to hit home with the audience in the first place, but the director really did nothing to help them along either. The director has a lot of power and not every delegation has an eye out for things like these.

Maybe it would be time the EBU would appoint a second set of eyes to co-operate with the local director, who could put the foot down if the quality of the camera work starts to differ too much between the entries. This is television, you know. Images are important.

Borrow like the Danes do

Many people seem to think Tanja from Estonia may have borrowed just a tiny bit too much from Loreen's 2012 Eurovision entry. First of all, I don't think these two songs are too similar. Germany's entry from last year was a much more obvious copy of Loreen if so.

You can also borrow quite a lot from other songs without anyone of importance reacting too strongly. There have been some rather spectacular occasions where people have borrowed famous fragments or complete melody lines without any kind of action taken against them.

Or how about this one? When the ESC was held in Gothenburg in 1985, the home entry went down well both with the audience and the juries and ended in 3rd place. No wonder since it sounded and looked professional, with a catchy hook and a good dance routine.



Kikki Danielsson - Bra vibrationer (Sweden 1985)

A Danish team got really inspired and decided to borrow a couple of elements for their own entry for the 1986 national final. The melody line was a bit similar, so they borrowed some or the arrangement. Or most of it, actually.

And as for the performance, wouldn't it be nice to have a male and a female dancer, just like the Swedes? Or why not the same dancers? If they are good once, they must be good twice. And that the female lead decided to choose a pink outfit similar to Kikki's? Pure coincidence, surely.



Lise Haavik - Du er fuld af løgn

Semi 1: 03 Estonia

If the running order makes Armenia no favours it is even worse for Estonia and could possibly cost them a spot in the final no matter how much Tanja would deserve it.

Tanja - Amazing (Estonia 2014)

Even if it would be easy to label this song as merely a Euphoria-lite it still remains a very ambitious entry with a polished and impressive stage performance by Tanja who dances like her life depended on it and yet doesn't miss a single note.

Had Estonia had better luck and found themselves in the last half of this semi there would be no doubt in my mind that Amazing would sail smoothly into the final, but now I'm far from sure. Will it leave an impression that is strong enough to make the viewers at home pick up their phones thirteen songs later?

Qualifier:
Hopefully. It would be well deserved. But success comes to the people who impress the viewers, not necessarily to the people who deserve it.

My grade: 3/5

Tobson review: Estonia picks their entry

For the last two years, I've been seated in the Nokia kontserdimaja in Tallinn to see the big final of Eesti laul live. Almost all the way back since the tiny Baltic state made its debut back in 1994, Estonia and their entries have been very dear to me, getting special attention from me and my critical eyes.

This year I won't see the final live at all, but I followed the semi finals closely and feel ready to predict the outcome of tonight's show.

As if there was ever a point in trying to predict what the Estonians will do. Most of the time they surprise you and if they don't, then that's a surprise too.

1. Brigita Murutar - Laule täis taevakaar
The big exclamation mark for me this year. What seemed like an inoffensive little ditty has grown into a simple but catchy song that could possibly appeal to rather a large section of the audience. I doubt the jurors will stand up and clap along, but it has grown into a bit of a personal favourite.
Grade: 4/5

2. Traffic - Für Elise
At some point this felt like a bit of a dark horse and a potential winner in the end but then the live performance turned out to be slightly less vibrant than the song itself and this spot in the running order does it no favours either. I wouldn't discard its chances just yet but it feels less and less like a hot favourite.
Grade: 3/5

3. Norman Salumäe - Search
Another grower, helped along by some intriguing camerawork and the rare and peculiar stage presence of Norman himself. Not as strong as his other entry with August Hunt (rejected in the first semi) but pleasant all the same.
Grade: 3/5

4. Wilhelm - Resignal
Artistic but introvert and pretty un-catchy pop. In the worst case scenario, this is exactly the kind of entry that the wrong kind of expert jury would shower in points in order to show how eclectic their own taste is. Talented band but the song wouldn't go far in Copenhagen.
Grade: 1/5

5. Lenna - Supernoova
Lenna's third solo effort is another strong rock ballad - efficient, polished and made to enthuse the local radio stations and promote her new album. It could be a winner - perhaps because the audience would think it is Lenna's turn to go - but it could a bit too demanding to stand a real chance internationally. I predict another second place.
Grade: 4/5

6. Super Hot Cosmos Blues Band - Maybe Maybe
At this point in the show, this song is sure to stand out from the rest. It's a pleasant and catchy - but ultimately too underdeveloped - little effort.
Grade: 2/5

7. Maiken - Siin või sealpool maad
Elegant and traditional, but perhaps one ballad too many in this line-up. Maiken has never sounded better vocally and could be rewarded for that, but it doesn't feel like a winner.
Grade: 2/5

8. Kõrsikud - Tule ja jää
Being original never hurt anybody in a contest like the ESC and these gents would surely leave a lasting impression also on a european audience. The song is soft and melodic but could be stronger without harming anyone.
Grade: 3/5

9. Tanja - Amazing
Being the first song in the first semi put Tanja a bit in the shadow of a number of other songs, but her new place in the running order highlights what an effective entry this is. Well sung and impressively staged. A tiny bit too Euphoria-esque for its own good but not an impossible surprise winner in the end.
Grade: 3/5

10. Sandra Nurmsalu - Kui tuuled pöörduvad
Perhaps not quite as distinct and special as Rändajad, Sandra's new song stands out as the most obvious choice out of the ten candidates. There is a danger in being the favourite, as the expert juries more than once have decided to keep their votes down for anticipated winners in the past.
Grade: 3/5

Tobson predicts: The experts and the televoters will select two songs for a super final before the viewers alone decides who will be the overall winner. The logical super finalists would be Lenna and Sandra, where the audience probably would go for the possibly more instantly graspable Sandra who would probably also have a wider appeal internationally.

Then again - if the experts decide to be a difficult bunch, they could keep Sandra out of the top two. And if one song would sell itself in a big way to the viewers, it could make its way into the final and win by a landslide there. Then it could be Traffic or Tanja, or even my personal favourite Brigita.  

Tobson review: Estonia, semi 2

There is no point beating around the bush: my predictions for the first Estonian semi a week ago were a complete fiasco. Not only did Estonia surprise me by voting the perhaps weakest song of the lineup into the final, but also by dropping my second favourite of the semi altogether.

I don't know if it is me or them, I was also silly by not predicting Kõrsikud despite being convinced they would be among the final five.

Anyhow - that was then and this is now. This week we have ten new songs, fighting it out for the five final spots in the final. And I have just a little a clue about what the Estonians will like and vote for as ever. So this could be an exciting night in many ways.

(And what about the interval act? Will we have the same abundance of happy but slightly scary and disturbing clowns singing happy buy disturbing versions of recent Eesti laul entries?)

1. Norman Salumäe - Search
The lead singer of August Hunt - wrongfully rejected by experts and televoters alike last week - also has a solo song in the running. More subdued and less energetic, and perhaps not special enough to stand out.
Grade: 2/5

2. Lauri Pihlap - Lootus
A pleasant slice of Estonian r'n'b by a singer who is no stranger to the eurovision stage, having provided backing vocals for Tanel & Dave in 2001 as well as for Birgit last year. A good song, but it would have needed some kind of drama or climax at some point to be more memorable.
Grade: 2/5

3. Nion - Muud pole vaja
This is precisely the kind of song I want in any national final: an energetic pop song with an electric touch in the arrangement. At the same time it is the kind of song that needs a very strong live performance and given last week - where several of my favourites underperformed - I dare not hope Nion will deliver. But I really wish they will prove me wrong.
Grade: 3/5

4. Maltised - Elu
Gentle, folksy, catchy and enjoyable. It would be a genuine shock if this one didn't make the final cut tonight, and in the final it will certainly eat a lot of the points Kõrsikud would have had otherwise.
Grade: 3/5

5. Sofia Rubina - City Lights
Excellent vocals in a dance track that is perfectly fine but completely lacks any kind of hook or element to make it memorable.
Grade: 2/5

6. MiaMee - Fearful Heart
Another very quiet little song - impeccably sung but a tad too undynamic. This could be the one to put the expert jury in a spin, but it sounds more like an exquisite album track than a single.
Grade: 2/5

7. Traffic - Für Elise
An Estonian equivalent to Train offering an upbeat and original number with a certain country flavour must be in with a chance in the end. Must be a sure qualifier tonight.
Grade: 4/5

8. Maiken - Siin või sealpool maad
Maiken was a backing singer for Ines in 2000 and is back after a few quiet years, possibly singing better than ever. This ballad gives her vocal chords something to work with but is still pretty uncatchy.
Grade: 2/5

9. Sandra Nurmsalu - Kui tuuled pöörduvad
I must admit to never finding "Rändajad" as special or captivating as many other seem to do, but Sandra is an outstanding performer with a presence and radiation few can match. She will probably breathe a lot of life also into this song that possibly promises a bit more than it can finally keep.
Grade: 3/5

10. Brigita Murutar - Laule täis taevakaar
Finally - a surprise. Sounds like an old-fashioned German schlager covered by a country band. The outcome is catchy but odd and could puzzle quite a few people in the audience. Hit or miss, but I think this one will make it into the final. Perhaps not by a big margin, but still.
Grade: 2/5

Tobson predicts: Sandra, Traffic, Maltised, Maiken, Brigita.

I'm sure about the first three, then I am merely guessing. I would gladly see Nion in the final instead of Brigita, and perhaps the jury would prefer MiaMee. And I would never completely discard the chances of Lauri Pihlap either.

Anything could happen. And there could be more clowns.

You can hear the songs on the Eesti laul webpage.

Estonia: Lenna's time to shine?

Ever since being the lead singer of Vanilla Ninja (and representing Switzerland at the 2005 ESC in Kyiv), Lenna Kuurmaa has been one of Estonia's top stars. After going solo, her notoriety has only grown and grown, also in other areas beyond singing.

But she can't keep her paws off Eurovision anyhow. Perhaps Eesti Laul is just the perfect showcase to launch new hit singles, perhaps the girl would just love to get back onto the ESC stage. This year she makes her third solo showing and hopes to better her two second places to date.



Lenna - Rapunzel (Estonia NF 2010)

Her second place in 2010 was a real shocker. She was the big pre-contest favourite, being a sky-high leader in all the polls. She was the one to beat and then suddenly, in the super final, the Estonian public went more unpredictable than ever and opted for sending Malcolm Lincoln to Oslo instead.

In 2012, it was more of a two horse race with Ott Lepland winning in the end. Not a very hard defeat, probably, as Lenna has later said "Kuula" is one of her favourite songs ever.



Lenna - Mina jään (Estonia NF 2012)

I can shake the feeling that Lenna could find herself in second place again this year, this time after Sandra Nurmsalu. Perhaps her song this year is too much of a grower to be a perfect choice for a contest where you need to be reasonably instant. But if Lenna was to go to ESC as a solo singer, it would be all worth it.



Lenna - Supernoova (Estonia NF 2014)

Where is August Hunt?

Estonian semi finals are notoriously difficult to predict and yesterday, I felt sure of only two things: Lenna would make it with ease and so would August Hunt. Little did I know.

After seeing the live performances, I was pretty sure Vöörad would be the one to be left out in favour of Kõrsikud - I know a chaotic mess when I see one and it never looks pretty on television - but Wilhelm qualifying and not August Hunt? My jaw has been hanging between my knees ever since.

I thought they put on such a lively performance of an attractive song, but again - you never know what the Estonians are about to do with their televotes.



August Hunt - Kus on exit? (Estonia NF 2014)

I just hope they will be back with a bang - perhaps already next year? Nothing fills my heart with joy and song quite like the sight of Estonians dancing.



August Hunt - Tantsulõvi (Estonia NF 2014)

Despite being heartbreakingly inaccurate in my predictions last night - I only got two out of five right - I will be back at it next week for the second and last Eesti Laul semi final. Let's hope my favourites fare better then...

Tobson review: Estonia, semi 1

In two semi finals, Estonia will reduce their twenty candidates to ten finalists and the first bunch will do their best to impress the televoters and expert judges tonight.

Ever since the Eesti Laul concept was launched five years ago, the main point of this contest has been to showcase different styles of music and genres rather than to find any typical eurovision entries. You can safely say that the aim has been successful this year.

It has really worked out well internationally as well. All Eesti Laul winners but one have made it to the ESC final, two of them ending in more than honourable sixth places.

As for these songs, I have only heard them and not seen any performances beforehand, so there could be a few surprises coming up tonight.

01. Tanja - Amazing
It is pretty inevitable that a powerful winner will influence entries for years to come. After Abba's victory there were loads of groups consisting of two boys and two girls at the ESC, now there are plenty of songs that wish they were Euphoria. Once you disregard the obvious source of inspiration, this proves to be a catchy number with good vocals. A good opener.
Grade: 3/5

02. The Titles - Flame
This is a nicely produced song that will probably suit many radio stations perfectly. Modern and pleasant but too lacking in dynamics to make an impact in this kind of contest.
Grade: 2/5

03. Wilhelm - Resignal
If you ignore that the lyrics are nothing but a bunch of random words seemingly thrown together without any deeper thought, this is an interesting piece of music that builds up nicely. Personable but probably too demanding.
Grade: 2/5

04. State of Zoe - Solina
Another modern effort, aimed at the dancefloor rather than the radio airplay charts. Heavier, rougher, sharper edges. Good but not charming enough to win through.
Grade: 2/5

05. NimmerSchmidt - Sandra
An intriguing mix of laidback vocals, 80's synthesizer sounds and an amusing saxophone thrown into the mix. Simple but effective pop, easily retainable with a good hook.
Grade: 3/5

06. VÖÖRAD - Maailm on hull
Ridiculously catchy party rap in Estonian over a dance-friendly backing track, completed with a singalong chorus by a female vocalist. Their press pictures suggest this could visually be silly in a good way, and this is probably the dance song to blow the other similar tracks away tonight.
Grade: 3/5

07. Super Hot Cosmos Blues Band - Maybe-Maybe
Another new genre, more country-flavoured than any of the other songs. Another pleasant, radio-friendly effort and yet another good voice. Catchy but ultimately too simple to stay interesting for three minutes.
Grade: 2/5

08. August Hunt - Kus on EXIT?
I was smitten by August Hunt when they took part in Eesti Laul in 2012 and am very happy to see them back. This is another energetic and infectious little number, very true to their own style, and I find myself smitten again.
Grade: 3/5

09. Kõrsikud - Tule ja jää
Also Kõrsikud stay true to style and offer a melodic little song, delivered with very smooth voices. I would have hoped for more of a hook somewhere, but these is an enjoyable entry all the same.
Grade: 3/5

10. Lenna - Supernoova
The former Vanilla Ninja vocalist tried her luck as a soloist for the third time after being runner-up twice. The big question is if this is her time lucky with an elegant and sophisticated soft rock track, reminiscent of some of Ines's best tracks. Tonight's winner.
Grade: 4/5

Tobson predicts: I would perhaps not call this a prediction as Estonians are known for working in mysterious ways and being full of surprises. But the five songs - based on audio versions only - I would select for the final are Tanja, NimmerSchmidt, VÖÖRAD, August Hunt and Lenna.

Chances are that Tanja or VÖÖRAD will be left out in favour of the Kõrsikud. I can live with it. But Lenna must be in, or something is seriously wrong with this contest.

The songs can be heard at the Eesti Laul website, and the show begins at 20:45 CET.

Finland: anybody watching?

This weekend, Sweden's national final started its long run while Finland's selection ended in the big UMK final. Yle pulled out all of their know-how and some of the best tricks in their magic box and presented a really nice show.

Finnish television doesn't do a lot of entertainment and out of everything on offer, the UMK final is state of the art. It looks good and ambitious and contains some really nice interval acts and pre-filmed material. A very nice package. And yet almost nobody is watching.

While Melodifestivalen managed to score an impressive 3 364 000 viewers with a good but not outstanding first semi, only 452 000 tuned in to see Softengine win in Finland.

Copyright: Yle, photo by Tomi Mikola

UMK is a high profile project for Yle. Eurovision is much loved since forever among the Finnish audiences. 452 000 viewers is a disastrous outcome. Disastrous. How do you explain something like this?

For some reason, Yle insists on showing UMK on their second channel. Recent figures show that TV2 is a channel in free fall with generally very poor ratings. The Eurovision selection should be taken onto the first channel at once.

The current format of UMK is not attractive for the viewers. For three weeks, singers and songs are shown without any action taking place what-so-ever. Then there are a further three weeks of heats and semis where very few songs are voted off and where the same songs keep playing and playing without any major drama or excitement.

A selection process needs excitement and all these warm-up shows seem to turn the audience away instead of enthusing them. Yle needs to rethink.

Either you can do what Estonia does. Strip away everything that is surplus. Put the songs in the centre of attention and have two straight-forward semis where the number of songs is efficiently reduced in time for the final.

Or you do what Denmark did. When the semi finals are not good or interesting enough - you scrap them. Denmark went back to a one-night extravaganza and used up their entire budget on making one sensational show for the audience to love.

Given the state of things in Finland, I would suggest the latter. Get 12 songs - try to get a star or two to enter as well - and show them in a sassy, sexy, magnificent live show broadcast on TV1. The UMK final shows it can be done, so do it now.

Correction: The figure I had seen was incorrect - the real rating is 423 000 viewers.

Semi 1: eight out of ten is not bad

After a stylish first semi final with no visible hiccups (not any I could detect anyway) we stand here with the first ten qualifiers of the year.

Estonia, Denmark, Russia, Ukraine, Netherlands, Lithuania, Belarus, Moldova, Ireland and Belgium.

When I predicted the results earlier today, I got eight right out of ten. That's pretty good. I finally ticked the boxes of Croatia and Serbia, who failed to convince the audience in the end. I don't miss them an awful lot, but I feel sorry for Croatia losing out on four consecutive occasions.

But the two finalists I had not foreseen, then? What can I say? 

I take pride in not having predicted Belarus. Not only do I find the song weak and cheesy, I also thought the performance was strained and forced and anything but charming. Everyone else must have seen something that was invisible to me.

Lithuania has made a nasty habit of failing when I like them and qualifying when I think they deserve to fail. I'm not going to cry "diaspora vote" until I see the complete scores from tonight's voting, but it's surprising that a performance as flat as this one could make the final cut.

On the other hand, I am really happy about Estonia and Belgium making it. They were my personal favourites tonight and I doubted that either one of them would enthuse the masses. Especially Roberto Bellarosa was so touching when he almost tore up his little plastic flag with pure happiness.

I also felt for the Dutch, since they were the last country to be announced. Of course. Had I worked for the EBU, I would have saved them for last as well. They have not been in a final since 2004, and extra tension is good for any old show.

Now it is time to recharge the batteries a bit and think about how to predict the second semi. Not at all sure who I'll settle for there. But I save that problem for later.

Semi 1: these are my ten qualifiers

I don't really know why this is, but every year when you are supposed to predict the results you get hit by a surreal feeling of seriousness. But its just a game, isn't it? My guess is as good as yours, et cetera?

Well, there is still some sort of pressure. I wouldn't want to stand there with only four correct countries in the end when everyone else predicted everything right.

So here are tonight's contenders and my final prediction as to who will make it and who won't.

1. AUSTRIA Shine / Natália Kelly
I always thought this would be a very good opening number for the semi final. Perhaps it still is, but it comes at the cost of being eclipsed by everything that comes after it. The song is pleasant and Natália does nothing wrong, but the audience is highly unlikely of remembering this particularly well when the phone lines open.
Qualifier: No.

2. ESTONIA Et uus saaks alguse / Birgit Õigemeel
If this ballad and the Cypriot ballad could swap places in the running order, there would be no doubt in my mind that Birgit and Estonia would make it. This is elegant, sober and very well performed. Not to mention my favourite ballad in this semi. I want to believe in this.
Qualifier: Yes

3. SLOVENIA Straight Into Love / Hannah
Modern, slick and club friendly - but for some reason these qualities seem to matter very little when people cast their votes. Even if Hannah hits all the notes correctly, this is not the kind of song that usually breaks through and a qualification would be a great surprise.
Qualifier: No

4. CROATIA Mižerija / Klapa s mora
Many will find this dull and old-fashioned but a large section of the audience will also hear competent singing and a competent melody line. I'm pretty convinced that quite a few jury members will belong to that latter category.
Qualifier: Yes

5. DENMARK Only Teardrops / Emmelie de Forest
Will the biggest pre-contest make it through the semi? Of course it will. Denmark missing out at this early stage would be more drama than anyone could handle on a Tuesday night.
Qualifier: Yes

6. RUSSIA What If / Dina Garipova
A clean and plesant melody line, a good vocalist and tons of cheese in the lyrical department. Quite far from being one of my personal favourites, qualification is still pretty inevitable.
Qualifier: Yes

7. UKRAINE Gravity / Zlata Ognevich
All this talk of Zlata being carried by a giant and possibly overacting her performance in rehearsals made me worry a bit at first, but there is enough of brilliance and elegance in this song to make it sail safely into the final either way.
Qualifier: Yes

8. NETHERLANDS Birds / Anouk
Suddenly people started having doubts, thinking that the Dutch curse will continue and that Anouk will fail. That is not going to happen. This is the first really good and credible Dutch entry for more than ten years, it will get rewarded for that.
Qualifier: Yes

9. MONTENEGRO Igranka / Who See feat Nina Žižić
One week ago I predicted these party bunnies in the final but I think I changed my mind again. This is a big hit in several ex-yugoslav countries, but even if they shower them in points it won't be enough unless everyone else also fall for this. I would not mind if they did, but I don't see it happening.
Qualifier: No

10. LITHUANIA Something / Andrius Pojavis
I thought I would like this more when I just heard it and didn't have to see the confusing preview presentation. It didn't help, it just showed me how underproduced it is. How little bite or attitude there is. Lithuania surprised me by qualifying in 2011 and 2012. I don't think they will surprise me this time.
Qualifier: No

11. BELARUS Solayoh / Alyona Lanskaya
The more I hear this one, the more I think it sounds like a jingle from an ice cream commercial more than a pop hit. And I can't shake the feeling that it even leaves poor Alyona cold. I still can't see who would vote for this, especially not if they happen to sit in a jury room.
Qualifier: No

12. MOLDOVA O mie / Aliona Moon
I wasn't too sure about this ballad at first, but it kept growing and growing. Just like Aliona's dress is going to tonight. A good performance that also stays in the visual memory is never a bad idea in this contest, a trick that Moldova has mastered well in recent years.
Qualifier: Yes

13. IRELAND Only Love Survives / Ryan Dolan
The first uptempo song that is modern, dance-friendly as well as user-friendly and easily accessible, performed by a fresh and likeable young man accompanied by a healthy amount of drumming and dance beats. The Irish should have nothing to worry about.
Qualifier: Yes

14. CYPRUS An me thimase / Despina Olympiou
Elegance, temper and talent can take a weak song quite a long way. The televoting masses have short memory and in an unfair world Cyprus could win precious ballad votes and take Estonia's place in the final. If so, I promise to be happy for Despina, but her song doesn't quite deserve it.
Qualifier: No

15. BELGIUM Love Kills / Roberto Bellarosa
This is one of my biggest favourites in this semi final but it seems my sentiments are not mirrored by the people predicting the outcome in Malmö. I don't care - I think this chorus and Roberto's nervous intensity will break through to enough people.
Qualifier: Yes

16. SERBIA Ljubav je svuda / Moje 3
The Serbian trio rip and tear their little song to bits and the little hooks and ideas scattered around the chorus get a bit lost in this shoutfest. And yet I think this will make the final cut by looking and sounding familiar enough in combination with being the last country in the presentation. I would prefer Montenegro or Slovenia in the final, but I don't think I will have my way.
Qualifier: Yes

So these are my ten qualifiers tonight: Estonia, Croatia, Denmark, Russia, Ukraine, Netherlands, Moldova, Ireland, Belgium, Serbia.

If I get eight songs right, I will be content. Nine and I will be happy - unless the one I'm wrong about is Anouk. Ten right and I will celebrate until the second semi.

What do you think, folks?