Tobson's Big ESC 2019 review, part 5

What is the only thing that could be better than a semi final? Two semi finals, of course. The new semi proved a success in many ways but it soon became crowded and making your way through to the final became almost impossible.

The 2007 semi final in Helsinki stands out as a real televisual nightmare, a show that never ends and when it finally does it is with a result unlikely to make anyone happy. Meanwhile ten countries were pre-qualified with no sort of quality control what-so-ever. Had the two semi finals system been introduced already in 2007, the EBU would have saved themselves a fair share of viewer outrage and Andorra would have made it to the final.

Apart from Andorra's injustice, it seems the semi final system finally landed with the viewers once the semi was split in two. Suddenly the viewers started engaging with the new formula and the semi final results  seem to have become less arbitrary since 2008.

If you want more of my reviews you will find them in part one, two, three and four.


07 DENMARK
Leonora / Love Is Forever

Songwriter Lise Cabble represented Denmark three times before. Not only has she got a victory under her belt, she never placed lower than 5th. This time she has brought along Anna Rossinelli's formerly unknown Danish cousin, a former figure skater, equipped with a pleasant and happy little ditty. In our troubled times, few lines will sit worse than "Don't get too political" but possibly Europe will be in a good enough mood to overlook that.

Qualifier:
You never know for sure, but Denmark is good at charming its way into the final. My bet is that the trick will work again but you can not be too sure. Anyway Lise Cabble is most probably set for landing outside the top five for the first time.

My grade: 3/5


08 SWEDEN
John Lundvik / Too Late For Love

Once Melodifestivalen was over, I was ready to bet everything I own that Sweden would win in Tel Aviv, secure a seventh win and bumble their way onto the top of the winner table alongside Ireland. Maybe I am not as sure anymore but this is a compelling piece of gospel flavoured pop - a better performed version of Austria 2018 if you so wish - with a chorus you can easily hold on to on a first listening. This is the song most people can like at least a bit and that can carry very far, not least with the jurors.

Qualifier:
Yes, beyond the shadow of a doubt. Perhaps not as obvious a winner as I thought at first but clearly one of perhaps four really strong contenders for victory.

My grade: 5/5


09 AUSTRIA
Paenda / Limits

In general, Austria have done most things right ever since selecting Conchita - what's an embarrassing nul pointer on home ground between friends? - and has provided an interesting range of entries lately. Last year they won the jury voting in the grand final. I wish I could say that success will stay with the Austrians as I really like Paenda and her low-intense presence and personable sound. Unfortunately her entry takes forever to develop into anything and when it finally does it is most probably too little and too late for most.

Qualifier:
No. It would be a big surprise (positive, but still) if Austria would hop out of an envelope this time around.

My grade: 2/5


10 CROATIA
Roko / The Dream

Jacques Houdek is back in town after his low-key, toned-down and quietly tasteful entry of 2017 where he sang a duet with *checks notes* himself. As you do. Now he is the songwriter as well as the artistic coach for young Roko. The boy can certainly sing but is he too polite and unremarkable to fill this bombastic belter with the drama needed?

Qualifier:
Borderline. I doubt this Jacques Houdek tribute act will stand out enough to make a mark, unless the same rainbows and unicorns used in Kyiv are unleashed again.

My grade: 1/5


11 MALTA
Michela / Chameleon

Another one of those nifty and updated pop songs that clearly picked up a thing or two from Eleni Foureira last year. After Cyprus and Switzerland, Malta remains a bit of a question mark. This clearly is a good number - catchy and personable and not too obvious. But will it gel with young Michela? Will they be able to pull this off on stage? And the more I hear it, the more I realise that this is a pile of bits and pieces that don't really fall into any sort of coherent song in the end.

Qualifier:
Yes, I think it is. Hardly a contender for a top ten placing, but Malta will be happy just to qualify. It's been too long.

My grade: 3/5


12 LITHUANIA
Jurijus / Run With The Lions

Lithuania is always a tricky one to predict. My rule of thumb has often been that if I like their entry, they will fail. And when it is dull or bad, it will qualify with ease. That should be very good news to Jurijus, who was one of the kissing backing singers in Vienna 2015, who isn't really doing anything wrong. Unfortunately the song he's been set up with is a really lean effort, another of these songs that could be washed ashore at almost any national final after being rejected elsewhere. Pleasant for as long as it goes on, then instantly forgotten.

Qualifier:
No. How snoozy can you get before Europe votes you out? Jurijus is about to find out.

My grade: 1/5


If you want to agree or disagree with me, please leave a comment or send me a tweet. All the preview clips can be seen here.

Tweet to @TobsonHelsinki

Tobson's Big ESC 2018 review, part 1

We are very, very close to the 2018 Eurovision Song Contest and I for one can't wait to see how Portugal will pull off hosting the ESC after waiting for this opportunity for so long.

Fate has been nice to RTP as it handed them the strongest lineup for many years to work with. Many of these songs are so good, they need no LED screens to make them come alive and shine.

Here are my thoughts on the songs, judging from this years preview clips, which you can see on the official Eurovision YouTube Channel.

01. AZERBAIJAN
Aisel / X My Heart

There are many interesting things going on in the running order this year. Are they clues? Quite certainly Christer Björkman has a finger or two in this pie. Why would he put a song like this first of all in the semi? It is nice and a good opener but lacks any kind of personality or temper or anything to make it stand out in a semi as strong as this. Is this the year when Azerbaijan falls out already in the semi?

Qualifier:
I wouldn't bet my house on it.

My grade: 2/5

02. ICELAND
Ari Ólafsson / Our Choice

Somebody could write a scientific essay on when Iceland lost their mojo in this contest. Was it when Yohanna managed to take something sweet and inoffensive and turn it into a silver medal in Moscow 2009? After last year's attempt at edge, Iceland is back at the sweet and inoffensive. Young Ari is a good singer and an adorable personality but this song is so terribly clichéd and dated that it defies description. And the lyrics is just the final kiss of death.

Qualifier:
No. The most likely contender to end last in the entire semi.

My grade: 1/5

03. ALBANIA
Eugent Bushpepa / Mall

Albania does a whole lot of things right. They stay true to their own selves, they keep sending songs that say something about the local music scene performed by local stars. And yet they have struggled to make an impact lately. This song is less complicated and more accessible than recent efforts and Eugent delivers the goods like he really means whatever he is singing. Had this been drawn into the weaker second semi instead, it could really have stood a chance.

Qualifier:
No. There are too many good songs fighting it out for only ten spots. Rotten luck but that's the rules of the game.

My grade: 2/5

04. BELGIUM
Sennek / A Matter Of Time

After three consecutive killer songs from Wallonia, also Flanders woke up and copied the winning concept of their countrymen: sniff out some fresh talent and give them more or less complete liberty to create a compelling entry. And would you believe it - it works also across the linguistic border. Rather Bond-esque (a bit of a trend this year) and most compelling, performed by an intriguing singer.

Qualifier:
Yes. This must qualify or everyone must resign.

My grade: 5/5

05. CZECH REPUBLIC
Mikolas Josef / Lie To Me

The first time I heard this song I thought it was really super annoying. There is a fine line between being annoying and entertaining, it seems. Dumb but irresistibly catchy, performed by someone who knows exactly what it takes to make a package like this work. My only regret is that the camel is not allowed on stage.

Qualifier:
Yes. You bet. And for the first time, Czech republic could make it into the higher regions of the top ten too.

My grade: 4/5

06. LITHUANIA
Ieva Zasimauskaitė / When We're Old

One thing is certain - you never know in advance what sort of song Lithuania will come up with. This one is the most sincere and tender thing they have entered in a long time, sung in a delicate way by a very likeable singer. The kind of entry that would really deserve to get rewarded big time.

Qualifier:
No. I'm afraid not. Had this one been drawn in the second half, then maybe. Now it will be too intimate too early on in the running order and get forgotten. Unless the juries absolutely adore it and save it.

My grade: 3/5

07. ISRAEL
Netta / Toy

40 years after Izhar Cohen and 20 years after Dana International - wouldn't it be nice if Israel won the contest with something surprising again? Netta is a real personality with a strong and personable voice and the chicken clucking gimmick is sheer brilliance. However, this entry is also sure to be very divisive. How well with it click with a mainstream audience in the end?

Qualifier:
Oh yes. That's hardly a problem. The question is how far this craziness will go in the final.

My grade: 4/5

08. BELARUS
Alekseev / Forever

More than one has described the first semi in Lisbon as a "blood bath". Colourful metaphor and all, but many of the songs lined up would have stood a better chance in the second semi. Like Belarus, whose pop song is quite good - despite the fact that it breaks the rules and should be disqualified - but maybe not good enough to break through. The new edit does it no favours and it had been nice had Alekseev been able to sing it properly live.

Qualifier:
Borderline but my gut feeling tells me this one will be out by quite a slim margin.

My grade: 2/5

09. ESTONIA
Elina Nechayeva / La forza

What a relief when somebody is finally doing proper opera singing at Eurovision. No funny games, no pop verses, no funny hats. Elina is just singing her modern aria beautifully and gracefully. Regardless if she can keep the dress projections from the national final or not, this is an oasis of class and style.

Qualifier:
It does run the risk of being the Blackbird of the year, but I do think Estonia is back in the final with this one.

My grade: 3/5

10. BULGARIA
Equinox / Bones

Bulgaria came back to the ESC transformed into a nation of modern and compelling pop and they stay true to form also this year. Bones is perhaps more complicated and less instant and a more risky choice. Applause for anyone not willing to just play it safe!

Qualifier:
Yes, most certainly. This is maybe not winning material like last year, but getting to the final should be a walk in the park.

My grade: 3/5

Tobson takes a guess: semi 2 in Kyiv

Tuesday's prediction went far better than I would have expected, with the obvious exception of Finland. Instead of a rewarding top ten on Saturday, Norma John found themselves kicked out already before the party had taken off. But nine out of ten makes my prediction pretty good, I suppose.

If the first semi was hard to predict, then semi two is sheer madness. It is full of songs that are fairly similar and fairly equal in strength. Some good songs are taken down by disappointing performances, some mediocre songs are helped by good or at least overwhelming performances. If anyone gets ten countries right in their prediction, I hope they selected their lottery numbers at the same tine.

Again I try to follow the gut feeling and if it is of any use, the following eight will leave us tonight:


SAN MARINO
Goodbye and thank you, Valentina, but you wouldn't believe a song as crammed with key changes as this one could possibly be this static and empty and hopeless.


LITHUANIA
This year's most interesting failure that I in many ways find refreshing. They want so much and are so energetic and in the end of the day it comes to nothing as their chorus couldn't be helped even by a smaller miracle. Intriguing but chanceless.


SWITZERLAND
Personally I am rather fond of this chorus, but the delivery is far too polite and there is too little happening during these three minutes. Unless the juries shower it with love, nobody's going to remember it for long enough to vote for it.


NORWAY
I really warmed to this song myself - especially the quirky verses and the really nifty production details you only notice when listening to it in headphones - but in this tight competition their lack of visual presentation is going to cost them.


SERBIA
Performing first is no problem when you do your thing better than most others - like Sweden did on Tuesday. Serbia's song is nice and impeccably produced but also anonymous and stands out like a penguin surrounded by other penguins.


DENMARK
Will Sweden be the only Nordic country in the final for the second year in a row? Denmark's only hope is that Europe finds the Dutch entry to be too screechy and screamy and self-indulgent. Not impossible - it really is - and find Denmark the better version of the same thing. But I still fear the Danes are losing this battle.


AUSTRIA
Nathan Trent is arguably the most charming performer in this year's contest but the rather disappointing chorus is letting this song down. The question is if any cute staging or glittery moon can compensate for that, especially being sandwiched between two similar entries right at the beginning. I'm afraid not.


MALTA
I have warmed also to this, the most old-fashioned of old-fashioned ESC ballads. Maybe jury and televoters alike will be triggered by a wave of nostalgia and reward this one, but I wouldn't hold my breath for that to happen.


This mean that my ten qualifiers would be - in order of appearance - FYR Macedonia, Romania, Netherlands, Hungary, Ireland, Croatia, Belarus, Bulgaria, Estonia and Israel. This is my mind speaking, not my heart.

I think Croatia is a horrific pile of nonsense but it will stand out. Netherlands is three minutes of dull and soulless harmonising with no melody. Estonia could feel too cold and calculated, FYR Macedonia is only in because Europe managed to recognise Belgium had a great somg despite a shaky performance, Ireland is there because... well. He has a nice balloon.

The performance I am really looking forward to tonight is the happy Belarusians dancing on their boat as well as the terrific Kristian from Bulgaria. I think you will love them both.

Tobson's Big ESC 2017 Review, part 8

The word I used more than any other - I suppose, I didn't actually count back - is "borderline". Semi two has some obvious qualifiers as well as a couple of equally obvious non-qualifiers. But then? This year's trend is radio-friendly pop songs that are nice - and in most cases good - but not extraordinarily personable. It will be really hard to tell who will qualify or not until you've seen them perform. Whoever manages to inject some originality in their song will make it through.

14. BELARUS
NAVIBAND / Historyja majho zyccia

For the first time ever, Belarus decided to rely on their own language. Of course I am positive about a such a decision but what moves me even more is that for the first time in many year, the Belarusian entry seems to be coming from a really genuine place. It is happy, it is cheerful and it feels real. It also feels a bit repetitive before three minutes have passed but perhaps that's a minor detail in the great sum of things.

Qualifier:
In order not to exhaust the word borderline, I am going to say yes. This sounds very different from anything else and the viewers are going to recognise that. If the band manages to maintain the energy of their clip and put that into motion on stage, this could go pretty far.

My grade: 3/5



NAVIBAND / Historyja majho zyccia (Belarus 2017 preview)

15. BULGARIA
Kristian Kostov / Beautiful Mess

Last year's successful comeback seems to have triggered something in Bulgaria and for the second year running they enter a real contender. This time in the shape of teenage heart-throb Kristian, who is the first ever ESC entrant born after the millennium bug. The Moscow-based singer has a strange and almost hypnotic presence, an excellent voice and a beautifully written song. Maybe the verses are stronger than the chorus, but this is a package designed to impress. It is also the third song in this semi co-written by Joacim Persson.

Qualifier:
Yes. And if Italy for some reason would not win, this is one of the possible shock winner candidates. Possibly also the start of an international career for Kristian Kostov.

My grade: 4/5



Kristian Kostov / Beautiful Mess (Bulgaria 2017 preview)

16. LITHUANIA
Fusedmarc / Rain of Revolution

Whatever you'd like to say about Lithuania, nobody can deny that they are fully doing their own thing in this contest. During their never-ending national final the viewers finally grew tired of the obvious favourite and opted for this little piece instead. There are actually many bits and pieces I like here: the energy of the verses, the groove of the backing singers that remained in plain sight at least in the NF, and the crazy presence of the lead singer. This is the most stylish and interesting failure of the year. The musical equivalent of two trains crashing into each other, rolling off a cliff, falling onto a nuclear plant.

Qualifier:
No. Most definitely not. As soon as the singer starts screaming "Yeah-Yeah!" for the umpti-eleventh time all hope is gone. But I totally prefer this to many more polished and less interesting entires.

My grade: 2/5



Fusedmarc / Rain of Revolution (Lithuania 2017 preview)

17. ESTONIA
Koit Toome & Laura / Verona

Estonia delivers yet another polished and engaging pop pastry and one has to wonder how they really do it. How can such a small country be so consistent and send in so many really good songs? This one has an unusual structure, which could be a bit of a gamble. Koit and Laura are delivering well but would need some more passion and chemistry compared to the national final. The song has also been released in several different versions already, which makes me think this team are maybe not as confident as they would have every reason to be.

Qualifier:
Yes, unless the Estonians have thought out some over-complicated stage stunt to drag the attention away from the actual song. Remember last year's card trick? If Belgium runs the risk of being the shock non-qualifier in the first semi, Estonia could be running the same risk here.

My grade: 4/5



Koit Toome & Laura / Verona (Estonia 2017 preview)

18. ISRAEL
IMRI / I Feel Alive

The second semi ends pretty much like the first semi began. Israel seems to have found its way back to a concept that works at Eurovision. Had this been the 1980's, a group of happy backing vocalists would have filled the stage and danced an energetic dance before this song was over. IMRI is a beautiful young man who - very much like Robin Bengtsson - would have deserved something more interesting to perform. The etno touch that comes in by the end is nice and adds a certain flavour but it is nowhere near enough to make this a favourite.

Qualifier:
Yes. Just like Belgium last year, being last in the semi will mean all the difference. This one will easily dance its way into the final and could end up in a much higher position than it deserves in the end. Just like Sweden this year.

My grade: 2/5



IMRI / I Feel Alive (Israel 2017 preview)

Semi 2: 09 Lithuania / I've Been Waiting For This Night

I was no big fan of Donny Montell back in 2012. In my book he is little more than a Lithuanian David Lindgren - someone who is posing as a pop star while really not being one at heart. This year he has a better song but the posing is left in tact.

However, Lithuania had more luck than anyone would have the right to hope for. After an eternity of slow or mid-tempo songs, they come in with something that will remind the viewers of a temper. Some rhythm. Something you could dance to.

The song really is a pretty bleak sketch of a dance hit - it keeps going and going in the same spot without a single trace of development - but it won't matter much here. This year's Golden Boy comes from Lithuania and will get picked up just by bringing the beat back.

Qualifier:
Yes. And it means at least one better song will be left out. Cruel world.

My grade: 1/5



Donny Montell / I've Been Waiting For This Night (Lithuania 2016 preview clip)

Semi 2: 01 Lithuania

In a last moment decision, Vaidas and Monika decided to sing together instead of competing against each other in the national final. A move I think most broadcasters would have objected against had it happened in somebody else's national final.

Rules aside, it proved to be a clever thing to do. The song is deceptively simple but needs sparkle and conviction. Vaidas is pretty and sings well but has given quite a wooden impression on stage. Monika has been nice but unspectacular on her own. Put them all together and the sparks start to fly in a completely different way.

They still have work to do, though. Maybe they are as fond of each other as the lyrics imply but this is a televised song contest where you have to perform for the cameras and not for your singing partner. This duet must open up and stop excluding the audience watching them.

It's also unfortunate to perform a song as bouncy and cheerful as this one as the first one when there will be so many slower ones coming on later. Coming in after a few of them would have cemented this Lithuanian ditty in the final.

Qualifier:
Yes, probably. This one is ridiculously upbeat and silly-in-a-good-way and that should carry all the way, but perhaps not too far in the actual final.

Grade: 3/5



Monika Linkytė & Vaidas Baumila - This Time (Lithuania 2015)

Semi 2: 07 Lithuania

You would not believe how hard I tried to get my head around the Lithuanian entry. I listened and listened again but can't decide whether I like it or not. This is probably not a good thing.



Vilija Matačiūnaitė - Attention (Lithuania 2014)

It has grown on me, I have to give it as much. The first version I heard - a demo by another singer than Vilija - was nothing short of a disaster. Uncharming, unsexy, unmelodic.

Vilija co-wrote the song and has another understanding how to make it work. She sings it well and gives it a bouncy and energetic performance together with dancer Sarunas Kirdeikis, who already went to Eurovision with InCulto in 2010.

Together they make this song seem a lot better than it really is.

Qualifier: It very much depends. If the viewers pay more attention to the performance than the actual song, they are in with a chance. But otherwise no.

My grade: 2/5

Semi 1: eight out of ten is not bad

After a stylish first semi final with no visible hiccups (not any I could detect anyway) we stand here with the first ten qualifiers of the year.

Estonia, Denmark, Russia, Ukraine, Netherlands, Lithuania, Belarus, Moldova, Ireland and Belgium.

When I predicted the results earlier today, I got eight right out of ten. That's pretty good. I finally ticked the boxes of Croatia and Serbia, who failed to convince the audience in the end. I don't miss them an awful lot, but I feel sorry for Croatia losing out on four consecutive occasions.

But the two finalists I had not foreseen, then? What can I say? 

I take pride in not having predicted Belarus. Not only do I find the song weak and cheesy, I also thought the performance was strained and forced and anything but charming. Everyone else must have seen something that was invisible to me.

Lithuania has made a nasty habit of failing when I like them and qualifying when I think they deserve to fail. I'm not going to cry "diaspora vote" until I see the complete scores from tonight's voting, but it's surprising that a performance as flat as this one could make the final cut.

On the other hand, I am really happy about Estonia and Belgium making it. They were my personal favourites tonight and I doubted that either one of them would enthuse the masses. Especially Roberto Bellarosa was so touching when he almost tore up his little plastic flag with pure happiness.

I also felt for the Dutch, since they were the last country to be announced. Of course. Had I worked for the EBU, I would have saved them for last as well. They have not been in a final since 2004, and extra tension is good for any old show.

Now it is time to recharge the batteries a bit and think about how to predict the second semi. Not at all sure who I'll settle for there. But I save that problem for later.

Semi 1: these are my ten qualifiers

I don't really know why this is, but every year when you are supposed to predict the results you get hit by a surreal feeling of seriousness. But its just a game, isn't it? My guess is as good as yours, et cetera?

Well, there is still some sort of pressure. I wouldn't want to stand there with only four correct countries in the end when everyone else predicted everything right.

So here are tonight's contenders and my final prediction as to who will make it and who won't.

1. AUSTRIA Shine / Natália Kelly
I always thought this would be a very good opening number for the semi final. Perhaps it still is, but it comes at the cost of being eclipsed by everything that comes after it. The song is pleasant and Natália does nothing wrong, but the audience is highly unlikely of remembering this particularly well when the phone lines open.
Qualifier: No.

2. ESTONIA Et uus saaks alguse / Birgit Õigemeel
If this ballad and the Cypriot ballad could swap places in the running order, there would be no doubt in my mind that Birgit and Estonia would make it. This is elegant, sober and very well performed. Not to mention my favourite ballad in this semi. I want to believe in this.
Qualifier: Yes

3. SLOVENIA Straight Into Love / Hannah
Modern, slick and club friendly - but for some reason these qualities seem to matter very little when people cast their votes. Even if Hannah hits all the notes correctly, this is not the kind of song that usually breaks through and a qualification would be a great surprise.
Qualifier: No

4. CROATIA Mižerija / Klapa s mora
Many will find this dull and old-fashioned but a large section of the audience will also hear competent singing and a competent melody line. I'm pretty convinced that quite a few jury members will belong to that latter category.
Qualifier: Yes

5. DENMARK Only Teardrops / Emmelie de Forest
Will the biggest pre-contest make it through the semi? Of course it will. Denmark missing out at this early stage would be more drama than anyone could handle on a Tuesday night.
Qualifier: Yes

6. RUSSIA What If / Dina Garipova
A clean and plesant melody line, a good vocalist and tons of cheese in the lyrical department. Quite far from being one of my personal favourites, qualification is still pretty inevitable.
Qualifier: Yes

7. UKRAINE Gravity / Zlata Ognevich
All this talk of Zlata being carried by a giant and possibly overacting her performance in rehearsals made me worry a bit at first, but there is enough of brilliance and elegance in this song to make it sail safely into the final either way.
Qualifier: Yes

8. NETHERLANDS Birds / Anouk
Suddenly people started having doubts, thinking that the Dutch curse will continue and that Anouk will fail. That is not going to happen. This is the first really good and credible Dutch entry for more than ten years, it will get rewarded for that.
Qualifier: Yes

9. MONTENEGRO Igranka / Who See feat Nina Žižić
One week ago I predicted these party bunnies in the final but I think I changed my mind again. This is a big hit in several ex-yugoslav countries, but even if they shower them in points it won't be enough unless everyone else also fall for this. I would not mind if they did, but I don't see it happening.
Qualifier: No

10. LITHUANIA Something / Andrius Pojavis
I thought I would like this more when I just heard it and didn't have to see the confusing preview presentation. It didn't help, it just showed me how underproduced it is. How little bite or attitude there is. Lithuania surprised me by qualifying in 2011 and 2012. I don't think they will surprise me this time.
Qualifier: No

11. BELARUS Solayoh / Alyona Lanskaya
The more I hear this one, the more I think it sounds like a jingle from an ice cream commercial more than a pop hit. And I can't shake the feeling that it even leaves poor Alyona cold. I still can't see who would vote for this, especially not if they happen to sit in a jury room.
Qualifier: No

12. MOLDOVA O mie / Aliona Moon
I wasn't too sure about this ballad at first, but it kept growing and growing. Just like Aliona's dress is going to tonight. A good performance that also stays in the visual memory is never a bad idea in this contest, a trick that Moldova has mastered well in recent years.
Qualifier: Yes

13. IRELAND Only Love Survives / Ryan Dolan
The first uptempo song that is modern, dance-friendly as well as user-friendly and easily accessible, performed by a fresh and likeable young man accompanied by a healthy amount of drumming and dance beats. The Irish should have nothing to worry about.
Qualifier: Yes

14. CYPRUS An me thimase / Despina Olympiou
Elegance, temper and talent can take a weak song quite a long way. The televoting masses have short memory and in an unfair world Cyprus could win precious ballad votes and take Estonia's place in the final. If so, I promise to be happy for Despina, but her song doesn't quite deserve it.
Qualifier: No

15. BELGIUM Love Kills / Roberto Bellarosa
This is one of my biggest favourites in this semi final but it seems my sentiments are not mirrored by the people predicting the outcome in Malmö. I don't care - I think this chorus and Roberto's nervous intensity will break through to enough people.
Qualifier: Yes

16. SERBIA Ljubav je svuda / Moje 3
The Serbian trio rip and tear their little song to bits and the little hooks and ideas scattered around the chorus get a bit lost in this shoutfest. And yet I think this will make the final cut by looking and sounding familiar enough in combination with being the last country in the presentation. I would prefer Montenegro or Slovenia in the final, but I don't think I will have my way.
Qualifier: Yes

So these are my ten qualifiers tonight: Estonia, Croatia, Denmark, Russia, Ukraine, Netherlands, Moldova, Ireland, Belgium, Serbia.

If I get eight songs right, I will be content. Nine and I will be happy - unless the one I'm wrong about is Anouk. Ten right and I will celebrate until the second semi.

What do you think, folks?

Semi 1: 10 Lithuania

I keep getting Lithuania wrong - when I predict them to fail, they qualify and vice versa. Which should be excellent news for Andrius Pojavis.



Andrius Pojavis - Something (Lithuania 2013)

Actually, I quite like the Lithuanian entry. The radio-friendly guitars, the knowingly stumbling verse before the melodic verse. Andrius himself.

He seems very happy to be on stage, his eyes are sparkling and twinkling and the enthusiasm spills into his voice.

Unfortunately, the enthusiasm spills into the whole performance. As a performer, you should always identify what your real job is and do it as well as you can. When you sing on television, you should focus on the viewers at home.

Judging from the preview clip, Andrius has a hard time focusing on anything at all. He flirts with the audience as well as his backing singers. He gets carried away, improvises and tries to make people clap along.

He does almost anything in his power to distract the viewers from his own song.

Unless he sharpens up and gets his priorities straight, he will not stand a chance. Neither with viewers nor with jury.

Qualifier:
No, not as it is. He would have had much better chances in the second semi.

My grade: 2/5

Tobson Ranking: #39 Lithuania

Lately, Lithuania is making it to the final more often which is great for them. Too bad their songs are not better.



Donny Montell - Love Is Blind (Lithuania 2012)

Last year a good singer lifted the incredibly pretentious Lithuanian Disney ballad into the final, and this year the blindfolded Disco King followed suit. And I understand nothing of this.

Lithuania had a good starting position in the semi, so maybe I could understand their qualification. But the mid-table placing in the grand final? The only thing I hear and see is a very weak and dated disco track performed by an over-excited young man, so convinced of his own greatness that it almost hurts.

I love passionate performers, but there is nothing attractive about somebody almost jumping out of his stagewear with pure enthusiasm. Apparently the televoters found something they were longing for, while I just wanted these three minutes to end.

My grade: 1/5

The 2012 review: part eight

I'm almost through all the entries for Baku, this post will deal with the four last songs to go through the semi finals, closing the Thursday night run-through.

15. SLOVAKIA



Max Jason Mai - Don't Close Your Eyes

Eurovision has perhaps never provided the perfect stage for real rock music. "Hard Rock Hallelujah" was - in all honesty - a typical eurosong disguised as a rocker with some guitars and, well, monsters. The Slovakian entry is by far the heaviest piece of metal since their Czech neighbours tired their luck with Kabàt in 2007.

This could be a turning point for rock, though. This might be sharp and noisy, but also melodic and easy to get a grip on. Max Jason Mai is a likeable performer and this song stands very alone - nobody is trying to steal their points and they will stand out by a mile from the other entries in this semi.

Qualifyer:
Yes. This is the year when Slovakia will get something back for all the effort they invested during the last few years. I am not sure how high a placing they might get in the end, but it would be a big negative surprise if they don't qualify this time around.

My grade: 3/5

16. NORWAY



Tooji - Stay

You know what? We need to talk about Tooji.

He is a real personality, he looks good and he has something deeply interesting about him, something enigmatic and mysterious. He is quite a good singer and has a good way with the camera. He really is a strong asset for Norway.

The big question is why he has opted to perform a song as weak as this one. It has a lot of promise and good ideas and good little hooky things, but it doesn't help much as there is no melody line and no structure. This song would need to grab me by the hand and lead me through this musical landscape and explain what is going on. As a listener, I feel very much left on my own as the whole package dances on without me.

Qualifyer:
Probably. Confidence comes a long way in a competition like this, and Tooji has plenty of that. But it is surprising that Norway, for the third year in a row, enters with a good singer and a song that is nowhere near as good.

My grade: 2/5

17. BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA



Maya Sar - Korake ti znam

Bosnia has really proven themselves as one of the strongest countries in the ESC, contributing quality entries year after year - well-crafted songs, elaborate performances and very good artists. Maya Sar has been part of the Bosnian team twice before, behind Deen in 2004 and as part of Dino Merlin's cheerful gang last year. This time around, she is going with a far more laid back effort.

The song, written by Maya Sar herself, is a tender and delicious little ballad where every syllable feels like a gentle touch, sung in a most delightful and sensual way. A real gem, but perhaps slightly too ethereal to work wonders in a televote.

Qualifyer:
Hopefully. It contains so many good ingredients, but is anything but instant. Should hit home with the juries, if they aspire to be of any use to the contest.

My grade: 4/5

18. LITHUANIA



Donny Montell - Love Is Blind

It's a hard life when your song is ready and you can't shake the feeling that it just isn't interesting enough. At that point, it is easy to start adding extra things, special effects, that might seem like a good idea at first but that don't really contribute anything in the end.

It could be a complicated bridge between the verse and a chorus. It could consist of adding some long notes that just distract from the actual melody. It could involve putting a blindfold on to underline the words you are singing. And in the end, you'll find yourself with a whole lot of superfluous rubbish and not so much of a song.

That is exactly what has happened in Lithuania, where the composer and the performer have joined forces to make it impossible for the audience to find the somewhat decent melody line they have hidden under several layers of over-production and stage antics.

Qualifyer:
No. This song would need some serious cleaning up, but not even that would help. The chorus, when Donny finally gets there, is OK but not original enough to make a difference.

My grade: 1/5

Nul points: Lithuania 1994

It is quite logical, actually - the more countries take part, the bigger the risk of not gaining any points. In 1994, fourteen countries were left with zero by each jury compared to only seven in 1982.

Halfway through the voting, it seemed Dublin would see not only the first winner ever to gather more than 200 points, but also the first multiple last place since the 70's. No less than eight countries were still left with nul points before Malta started scattering their points all over the place.

The 90's were sad days for Eurovision in many ways: low ratings, no entries became hits and, in order to avoid relegation, some countries traded points with each other. You can spot this very easily by comparing voting patterns, and it went on until the EBU decided to centralise all televoting in 2003.

The only one clinging on to the big zero at the end of the voting was poor Ovidijus from Lithuania, whose delegation clearly had not been to any points-trading-parties during that week.

Nul points?

Oh no. This song is maybe not the best entry under the sun, but there were many weaker ones who got saved by their trading partners. When this sweet and melodic lullaby was left with nothing it was largely due to tricks and games, and had very little to do with music. Which was shameful for the entire contest.




Ovidijus Vyšniauskas - Lopšinė mylimai (Lithuania 1994)

Lithuania 2012: Love is blindfolded

Lithuania never had the smoothest of rides through Euroland, but during the last few years they made more of an impression than before and made it to the final both in 2009 and 2011.

This year they decided to send an ambitious and eager young man, who will not stop at anything in order to convince the audience: he stands on his hands, he dances, he sings almost operatic notes and, in order to show just how blind love is, he starts his performance wearing a blindfold.

The blindfold is a bit redundant, to be honest. I think the audience gets the big picture anyway.

The song has a catchy chorus but goes through a number of confusing changes. It starts out as a pseudo-operatic ballad before twitching into a disco flavoured crossbreed of Cher's "Strong Enough" and Moloko's "Sing It Back".

Once you think you got the plot, it also bursts into another confusing break.

If the Lithuanian rules only allow that sort of action, I would settle for a bit of a rewrite here. Clean the whole track up, cut out the unnecessary stuff and focus on the singing and the rather catchy chorus.

With a bit of work (and a bit of luck in the draw), Donny Montell could be the disco break we all long for in his semi final.



Donny Montell - Love Is Blind (Lithuania 2012)

Song Of The Day: Lithuania 2010

How about going a little bit crazy? Offer Europe some funk, some kazoo, some rather gorgeous legs? No?

Lithuania's best placing to date came with another humourous effort, a joking protest song, in 2006, so nobody can blame them for trying the concept again.

And in all fairness, InCulto had remembered to pack a far better song in their suitcase when leaving for Oslo than LT United had in Athens. And compared to the other bunch, who were unhappy about the fact nobody ever votes for Lithuania at eurovision, InCulto had a little bit of a message in their entry.

Lithuania and its brothers in the East feel like second class countries in Europe, and when they go west it is only to end up as second class citizens who clean other people's homes and then wash other people's dishes. And who's going to tell them they are wrong?

Right or wrong, the voters remain relatively unmoved and this anthem for anyone who ever felt a bit outside in the Europan family did not make it to the final.



InCulto - East European Funk (Lithuania 2010)

I think they should, though. It is a rare thing at Eurovision to come across humour songs that actually are a bit funny. And InCulto amuse me very much.

They already did back in 2006, when their entry "Welcome To Lithuania" ended second in the national final.



InCulto - Welcome To Lithuania (Lithuania 2006 national final)

Tobson Ranking: #39 Lithuania

Old-fashioned isn't necessarily a bad thing, but if the tv-screen almost turns black and white when your song starts, then you are overdoing it.



Evelina Sašenko - C'est Ma Vie (Lithuania 2011)

For quite a long time, I would have defined Evelina is part of the same group as the singers from Belgium and Romania. Smug. But then she got her act together for the final, if I remember correctly.

Then she managed to come across as warm, elegant and classy. She sang really well and the sign language gimmick felt more sincere than just a cheap gimmick.

Too bad then, that the song is so fantastically void and empty. It contains absolutely nothing. Pompous and pretentious.

The fact that the juries showered this in points, especially in the semis, is enough for me to start questioning the whole idea of having juries.

What is the point to have juries if they vote for songs that are no good?

My grade: 1 / 5

The 2011 review: part Four

And to wrap it up, here are the four last entries of the first semi, all viewed with my critical (but reasonable) eye.

16. PORTUGAL



Homens da Luta - Luta é alegria (Portugal 2011)

Of course you can get a bit confused as to what kind of competition this really is. Is this a forum for the eternal eurosongs? Should you send in material with chart potential? You never know these things for sure. But Portugal has been in it long enough to know it is not the place to send bottom-of-the-league sketches that would be rejected by the local village revue.

There is a possibility that every fragment of this entry is sheer brilliance if you are Portuguese, fluent in Portuguese and pretty aware of Portuguese culture and history. I can assure you that the vast majority of viewers and voters will not understand what goes on, and will not be bothered with these people in strange clothes.

In a cat fair, you enter a cat. In a baking competition, you enter a cake. In a song contest, you enter a song. Take notes, Portugal.

Qualifyer:
Nope. Estonian Kreisiraadio showed that humour with no humour will not work at the ESC. Possibly even a nul-pointer in the end.

My grade: 0/5

17. LITHUANIA



Evelina Sašenko - C'est ma vie (Lithuania 2011)

Just like Armenia's Emmy, poor Evelina has been robbed. She has an excellent voice and a good stage-presence, and radiates not only confidence but also intelligence. So whatever made her accept such a bleak, pompous non-entry is beyond me.

Entries like this one were in abundance during the mid-90's and were one of the main reasons why Eurovision started lacking in popularity and ratings. I can't see why Europe would have changed its mind since then. Lithuania could gladly send Evelina again, some other time, but with a decent song. She would deserve that.

Qualifyer:
No. Not even Disney wants ballads like this one anymore.

My grade: 1/5

18. AZERBAIJAN



Ell & Nikki - Running Scared (Azerbaijan 2011)

I do have a few strong words to say about Azerbaijan's policy of buying their way to success (and their way of ignoring their own composers and sounds) but after Portugal and Lithuania I won't argue anymore as this is one of the strongest songs of all 2011.

It is breezy, atmospheric and emotional and while this couple does not strike you as the most obvious love birds ever (so to speak) they come across as very likeable. My only slight reservation is that I want to hear what this sounds like live. This chorus contains some really difficult passages that are very hard to pull off, and worst case scenario is that this lovely chorus turns into the musical equivalent of a horror movie before three minutes are over.

I am keeping my fingers crossed for that not to happen.

Qualifyer:
Yes. If these two hit the notes properly, then they will sail all straight into the final and make a respectable showing there.

My grade: 4/5

19. GREECE



Loucas Yiorkas Feat. Stereo Mike - Watch my dance (Greece 2011)

The Greeks have been dancing around merrily on the Eurovision stage almost every year since 2004, and of course that is bound to wear you out sooner or later. I have wished for a Greek change of direction for a long time already. Which reminds me, you should always be careful what you wish for.

Stereo Mike and his rap paired with Loucas and all his pathos could have been a good idea in theory, but the pieces of this song won't gel and the final result is surprisingly lacking in dynamics and melody. It is not bad as such, but I don't feel anything listening to this song. It starts, it goes on, it ends, it passes me by.

Qualifyer:
No. Greece has been a steady feature in the final every year since the semis were inagurated, but I think they will have a hard time keeping up with their own reputation this time.

My grade: 1/5

Lithuania 2011: Evelina and her life

Lithuania has selected Evelina Sašenko to represent them at the upcoming Eurovision Song Contest with the big ballad "C'est ma vie".



Evelina Sašenko - C'est ma vie (Lithuania 2011)

Lithuania has had a somewhat problematic run in the ESC with only one top ten finish since their 1994 debut (a debut that resulted in nul points). Since the introduction of the semi finals, Lithuania has been in the grand final three times.

If Europe is looking for impressive vocal chords this year, then Evelina is a solid choice. Trained in both jazz and opera, she is a powerful vocalist, bringing especially Lara Fabian to mind (or is it just the French?) in the higher notes.



Lara Fabian - Je t'aime

However, I don't think the song in question would have excited Lara Fabian. It reminds me of the long ballad introduction of the Barbra Streisand/Donna Summer duet "Enough Is Enough", without ever developing into anything else.

A big ballad, like they often were in the 90's when countries wanted decent placings but not victory. Very nicely sung, but hardly a vote magnet come May.

Lithuania 2011: Sasha wants to do it again

Also Lithuania staged their first semi final yesterday, with three songs advancing the grand final.

Among the qualifiers, one can not Sasha Song who represented Lithuania in Moscow two years ago (even if the last part of his stage name was only Son back then). He apparantly enjoyed his three minutes in the ESC limelight and wants to score even better this time.

It could work, since he, according to the lyrics, is both a hero and a winner. Let's see what his fellow Lithuanians make of that. The lad sings well, anyhow, and this is what his performance looked like.



Sasha Song - The Slogan Of Our Nation (Lithuania NF 2011)

The other two qualifyers were another big ballad by a young woman with a big voice an an energetic pop group with a great deal of positive energy but not so much of a song.

It doesn't quite look like Vilnius 2012 as yet, but not a bad start.