ESC 2015: the final running order

A eurovision producer's nightmare? Let me try to explain. Like Oslo 1996 - when you have one single up-tempo, happy, chart-friendly hit in an endless row of ballad and it gets drawn to perform as number two.

Or in Düsseldorf, where the final lineup was really good until hasard decided to put basically all favourites together in the first half of the show without spreading them out the slightest.

To avoid things like these, there was a change of rules in 2013. The draw was reduced to deciding what half of the show you perform in, then the host producer gets to sequence the running order instead.

But what does it help? Out of the 27 songs in the final - I'm repeating myself but TWENTY-SEVEN? Who thought that was a good idea? Did nobody watch the horror that was the 2007 semi final? - only eight are uptempo. And seven of them are drawn in the first half. After the commercial break in the middle all songs but Georgia will be ballads or mid-tempo offerings.

The running order:
01. Slovenia, 02. France, 03. Israel, 04. Estonia, 05. United Kingdom, 06. Armenia, 07. Lithuania, 08. Serbia, 09. Norway, 10. Sweden, 11. Cyprus, 12. Australia, 13. Belgium, 14. Austria, 15. Greece, 16. Montenegro, 17. Germany, 18. Poland, 19. Latvia, 20. Romania, 21. Spain, 22. Hungary, 23. Georgia, 24. Azerbaijan, 25. Russia, 26. Albania, 27. Italy.

What does this mean, then? It means that most people that are not hardcore ESC fans or didn't hear the songs several times already will have a very long evening. A very very long evening where most of the songs in the second half will turn into one big heap of similarity, regardless if your song is good or not.

What strikes me is how this running order probably hugely diminishes the chances of both Russia and Italy - they are still convincing but the average viewer will be very tired  when they come on and will have a harder time to give yet another ballad a chance. I won't count them out just yet but it isn't doing them any favours.

My guess is that the songs in the first half will find themselves with an advantage and I find it likely one of them is our winner. Estonia. Sweden. Australia. Belgium. Anything is possible.

ESC 2015: Semifinal allocation draw

The semifinal allocation draw. What a strange title of an event. And what an odd event it is, too. Loads and loads of countries are drawn and drawn and we don't even get a running order. It's a little bit like getting cotton candy when you really wanted a proper meal.

And yet the host broadcasters have handled this little draw beautifully recently. It's the first chance for the host to make any kind of impression, and a fine opportunity to show that the ESC is important but that you, at the same time, doesn't take it all too seriously.

Andi Knoll and Kati Bellowitsch were relaxed and funny, doing their thing with wit and at quite a high pace. I wouldn't have objected had ORF chosen these two to do the big thing come May.

What we know so far is how the countries will be divided between the semis and whether they will sing in the first or second half. What is still more important - that could really make or break your chances - is the establishing of the running order, which will be made by the show's producers once all entries are selected.

For myself, I note that Finland is back in the first half of the first semi and that the only real hope of any friendly neighbour points come from Estonia. That UMK winner better be prepared to give the performance of a lifetime in Vienna.

ESC 2014: semi allocation draw completed

Maybe this is an indication of just how little has really happened so far this season, but when the draw was executed to determine what countries sing in which semi final there was quite a bit of a buzz among fans on social media.

As always, the countries had been grouped into six pots - on the basis of televoting preferences during the last ten years - and then neatly drawn into the first or the second half of each semi. And this was the outcome:

This picture has been borrowed from eurovision.tv

The final running order will be sequenced by the Danish producers once all entries have been selected, and until we have heard the songs or seen the actual starting positions there is not much point trying to make any more advanced predictions out of this.

I am happy Finland is in the second semi final for the second year running, after being drawn in the first semi every single occasion in the years 2008-2012.

My heart is already bleeding for the five poor countries that will rejected in the second semi. If only five songs are thrown out and you are one of them - in a year when it would be relatively easy to qualify - means Europe tells you quite clearly that you are rubbish. Not very amusing to face your local press after that.

Given how much people read into numbers and starting positions, I see a way of putting the system to the test for real already in the first semi final. Had I been the producer, I would feel very tempted to start the semi like this:

01. Sweden
02. Azerbaijan
03. Armenia

Just to see what happens. Would these arguably bad starting positions stop these powerhouses from qualifying?