Tobson's thoughts after semi 2

What we needed in the final was diversity and we had it in the shape of Georgia's weird and psychedelic rock number. It's not my favourite song and I don't think it will do awfully well come Saturday, but I cheered happily as they were announced as one of ten finalists.

It will add some dynamics and an element of the unexpected. Not to mention it is head and shoulders above that rather stale rocker from Cyprus.

The second semi was a most entertaining show - Petra and Måns were in top form - and again I nailed nine out of the ten qualifiers correctly. I was nanoseconds away from putting Norway as a non-qualifier instead of Israel - which would have given me a full ten - but I sort of wanted to be right as Agnete is a sweet girl who struggled hard to get her act together. Israel is the better song so I'm not upset about being wrong.

All Nordic countries are out of the running - only host country Sweden will be there on Saturday. It means Frans is likely to receive 4 x 12 points at least. Since the semis were introduced, it never happened that we had less than two Nordic countries in a final. Disappointing perhaps but also pretty well deserved. The Nordic national finals left a few things to be desired this year.

Also it is good for the contest that also the Nordic countries fail at times and the likes of Belgium make it two years in a row.

Tomorrow morning we will have the running order - then we'll start predicting the winner. I still have a gut feeling Italy will do extremely well but so will Australia and Ukraine.

Tobson's thoughts after semi 1

Just a few thoughts after the first semi final is over. It was a lavish and entertaining show from Stockholm where Petra Mede and Måns Zelmerlöw did their best to take us viewers from point A to point Z without inferring too much.

On a first listening I was surprised to see many of the artists I really thought would possess stage skills underperforming badly. Finland and Estonia both really deserved to get kicked out tonight with their low energy and lack of determination.

Seeing the performances for the first time tonight possibly allowed me to see some things the people on location have missed. For instance Croatia - bullied for their choice of outfit - suddenly felt so deserving of a spot in the final for me. Cool, artistic, with a temper of its own. I was genuinely happy to see it pass.

In my prediction, I found myself getting 9 songs out of 10 right. I'm just as surprised as the rest of you. The only one I had wrong was Azerbaijan - and she sang better than media reports had suggested - as I had predicted Estonia instead. I'm not unhappy with the way it went.

This is not schadenfreude at all, but I am happy that Greece and Bosnia-Herzegovina got pushed out. It is better for the contest that there are as few countries as possible that always qualify no matter what kind of song they enter. Now they both can come back with better songs next year.

And I am full of joy that both Austria and Czech republic made it through. At the end of the day, those two songs were the only ones I really cared for. (Those two and Freddie from Hungary. I can not believe how lovely that man is.)

Semi 2: A slight improvement

We did better in the second semi, both me and ORF. I think the show looked better already and we finally had a decent qualifier sequence. Very nice and the least we can expect, really.

As for me, I got eight out of ten and I can just blame wishful thinking for not getting all ten.

I had both Lithuania and Poland on my qualifiers list up until the last moment when I decided they were too lightweight and too un-dynamic respectively to impress the viewers.

I predicted Iceland in the final but don't miss them. I'm happy that their playing-it-safe formula finally didn't work and expect something with claws and attitude from them next year.

I also predicted Ireland in the final and am genuinely sorry that their playing-with-the-numbers formula didn't enthuse the audiences.

The biggest growers for me on the live show were Norway and - above all - the sheer wonder that is Aminata. I am so happy that the new ambitious approach was rewarded and that Latvia is back in the final for the first time since 2008. Very well deserved.

We have all the qualifiers and what will the results mean for next year? Hopefully the likes of Denmark, Iceland, Portugal and Ireland will take a long hard look in the mirror and try to do something about their national selections. Let Latvia lead the way, they showed us all how it can pay off to do that little bit extra.

I am going to bed while the producers will sit all night and try to make a good running order for the final. I am not jealous. There are almost no ballads in the second half at all. Most of the big favourites are drawn in the first half. Poor producers, they must by crying.

My guess? United Kingdom will have the misfortune of opening the final, Georgia will sing last. When I wake up I guess we will already know.

Semi 2: Tobson top ten

I will admit it and say it openly: prediction went so-so this Tuesday. I got seven out of ten qualifiers right, which isn't really any greater sign of having the Midas touch.

But in my defence, I still think that the results will prove very tight once revealed and that there might have been pretty close margins between who made it and who didn't.

It's the same for semi 2, perhaps on an even larger scale this time. One little positive thing could suddenly be decisive in making one song break through to the audience while another one fails. And the ballads and duets are likely to eat each other.

I also review all the songs for EILE Magazine and made my pick already yesterday. Having cold feet about one or two already but here goes. Tonight's ten qualifiers are (in an almost random order):

SWEDEN
Because Måns is sensational, the song is in a league of its own tonight and, as predicted earlier, this is one of the top contenders for overall victory comes Saturday.

LATVIA
Being bold and different and thinking outside the box paid off for Belgium and should do the same for Latvia. Wonderfully odd and divisive. Not everyone's cup of tea and I love it when somebody dares not to be.

SLOVENIA
The audience will find themselves longing for something upbeat and reasonably contemporary by the end of the song presentation and then Slovenia brings relief. Catchy and with distinctive hooks, both musically and visually.

NORWAY
This is the dramatic duet that will blow all other similar attempts out of the water. Stylish, suggestive and with a very accessible chorus. Hard cheese for the others, especially the Czech republic. This is where all their potential points will wander.

MONTENEGRO
Just like Denmarks packet-full-of-sunshine-formula suddenly stopped working, there will come a day when Europe no longer wants this type of Balkan ballad. But that day is not today, this will surely make it to the final without making any bigger splash there.

CYPRUS
Among the ballads this one will stand out by being sparse, modest and sensitively performed by a male solo singer. And it might trigger severe nostalgia among the people who loved the Backstreet Boys back in the day.

AZERBAIJAN
Also a male ballad but without anything sparse or modest about it. Just like Azerbaijan last year, it could prove a little too demanding to do really well but if it doesn't make it to the final the expression "shock non-qualifier" will gain new frightening dimensions.

ISRAEL
I had some harsh comments about this one in my preview review and I still partially stand by my critique. But Israel comes dancing onto stage after seven songs that are relatively slow and similar. It can't go wrong. Welcome back to the final, Israel.

IRELAND
One of my personal favourites that I hope I share with the juries at least. Reportedly, Molly has been shying away from the cameras during rehearsal which is clearly not a good thing. But I cross my fingers very hard for this one to go through.

ICELAND
This one is the one I am the least sure of and finds itself among my ten qualifiers mainly because Iceland always seem to sneak in somehow. This is safe and inoffensive but one day also that formula will fail.

That means that my seven non-qualifiers tonight are: Poland, Switzerland, Czech republic, Portugal, Malta, San Marino and Lithuania.

I would gladly have Lithuania in the final but I think it is too light-weight to be remembered by the end of the show. I would gladly have Poland in the final, but ultimately the song in itself isn't dynamic enough to make people pay attention to yet another ballad. I would gladly have Portugal but I see that isn't going to happen.

But what I want most of all is a change of pace for the second semi final and a qualification sequence that will allow excitement to build up. That and Ireland in the final would make my night complete.

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Semi 1: and the results came in

The first results are in, the first ten envelopes are opened and it for a while it felt like I got half of the finalists wrong. In the end I got seven countries right.

I had to count back to get that. The sequence were the finalists were revealed was the single weakest point in the entire show.

You have two hours to stage a semi final of 16 songs. The entries are done with quite quickly and then you throw in everything and the kitchen sink in order to fill the rest of the show.

You fill and you fill and you fill and suddenly you filled a bit too much and what should be the climax, full of suspense, is something you rush by with no time for any excitement to build. Nul points for that. It must change for the second semi. Be a bit professional.

Albania, Armenia and Greece made it to the final while I thought they would be out. What can I say about that? Arbitrary, like I said in my prediction earlier. It could have gone either way. Albania delivered a fine vocal performance but Armenia was messy and Greece dull. It's a mystery to me how either one made it.

Finland, Moldova and Netherlands are out while I predicted them to be in. Already yesterday I was on the verge of predicting a Dutch flop, during the broadcast I felt sure it wouldn't work. Static and without a trace of charm.

Also Moldova came across as really charmless and probably lost all their chances by performing first. And by selecting a performer as void of radiation as this particular one. As for Finland - Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät didn't quite shine when their big moment came. For them and their career it doesn't matter.

It doesn't matter for me either. After seeing all 16 entrants tonight, only two things stood out as truly important to me: to have Belgium and Estonia in the final. I was never really worried, I guessed they would save Belgium for one of the last. Being the very last could very well indicate that Loïc did very well tonight indeed.

I won't start chanting for Bruxelles 2016 just yet. I'll just conclude that all is well that ends well, and with Belgium in the final it ended very well from my point of view.

Semi 1: Tobson top ten

It is time to commit to the worst and hardest thing there is in Euroland. The time has come to predict the qualifiers from the semi finals - a task I find increasingly difficult with time.

Perhaps it's just a growing realisation of how unpredictable life is and how little I really know.

Perhaps - and more likely - the standard of songs has become more streamlined and you can't really know out of five standard ballads which one the audience will warm to. It feels totally arbitrary.

I am reviewing the ESC also for the terrific EILE Magazine and when I sent them my prediction for the first semi final, I couldn't believe what I had written. It was pretty much what I thought and still it just looked so... wrong.

I'd still like to blame this more on too many entries lacking an edge or attitude or a genuine will to win, which makes it arbitrary to guess which one will be lucky enough in ninth place and who will cry in twelfth.

But here goes, my ten qualifiers tonight are (in almost random order):

RUSSIA
Everybody loves a classy superstar that belts out a big ballad. Everybody loves peace. The Russians love their children too. This one can't lose.

BELGIUM
Simply too good not to make it. Fresh, different, intriguing. And Loïc is arguably the most interesting performer in this entire line-up.

ESTONIA
Because quality works. A solid, tuneful and moody offering that feels real and trustworthy.

ROMANIA
Romania always makes it to the final and this happens to be their best song in many years. Will also stand out for using mainly their own language in a sea of Bad English.

GEORGIA
Being the last one on stage is really going to help this one make it. The aggressive tone also sets it apart from the sweeter female solo entries on offer.

FINLAND
I still have a hard time judging this one properly, but it will stand out of the crowd like a naked guest at a Nobel Prize reception. Like it or dislike it, but at least you'll remember this one once the phone lines open.

NETHERLANDS
Despite the lazy songwriting, I hope Trijntje will make it to the final at least on the merit of being commercial and radio-friendly. And to keep the Dutch happy and make a tiny bit more of an effort next year.

SERBIA
People judge not only what they hear but very much what they see. This explosion of ESC kitsch is probably right at the border of relegation tonight but will amuse just enough people to sneak into the final.

HUNGARY
I feel it in my bones that Boggie will manage to convince quite a few members of the audience on charisma and presence alone. This one also stands out by being slightly out of place and fashion and anything that sets you apart in this semi might work to your advantage.

MOLDOVA
Being the opener could really wreck it for this one, going for shock value and provocation, which would have worked much better later in the running, when people would have had a bunch of more well-behaved entrants to compare to.

So that would mean Greece, Armenia, FYR Macedonia, Belarus, Denmark and Albania are out. It makes more sense when I see it now, in all fairness.

I think Denmark and the Netherlands are fairly interchangeable, not all hope is lost for Denmark, but I'd prefer the greater radio hit potential of the Dutch entry.

Armenia could make it in case the points are all over the place and a low average is enough to make it into tenth place. So could Greece or Albania, but both feel like too much technique and too little emotion. Either one could easily snatch Hungary's place, though. Belarus and Moldova fight for the same points, somehow. I think Belarus makes too little of what they have, while the Moldovan bad taste overload will at least leave an impression.

I feel absolutely certain about four out of my ten qualifiers. That is the lowest possible amount of correct guesses you can have. I hope I will do a bit better than that.

It's just a lot easier to predict when you really enjoy songs, find them strong and convincing and want them to do well. This semi is full of competent but slightly indifferent entries and the guess is rather who will underwhelm more than the others.

But I am looking forward to a very good show tonight either way. Bring it on, Austria.

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Semi 2: a little bit of a mess

All is well that ends well. An excellent mantra for most situations in life, not least for the second semi final of the 2014 Eurovision Song Contest. I have no idea when I last saw a eurovision final with that amount of conflicting emotions last.

Just like last year, I have deliberately not watched any footage from rehearsals to make my viewing at home more enjoyable and save some surprises for myself. You can safely say I was surprised here and there.

I had told people to look forward to the second semi as there were many good songs there, but I couldn't quite believe how many weak performances there would be. I wasn't prepared for that. Like several countries had forgotten that the ESC is an event that is filmed by cameras and broadcast for an entire world to see.

In a string of bad surprises, Greece stand out as the biggest single disappointment. Riskykidd was very nervous - I can overlook that - but the rest of it was three minutes of televised chaos. It can't have been their intention to make it look that way, can it? I have to watch again in the morning.

The Greeks were not alone, several others underperformed as well: FYR Macedonia, Lithuania, Switzerland. But you liked that last one anyway.

I thought I'd sink through the ground as the host started by announcing the two only songs I had labelled sure non-qualifiers as the first two to move on to Saturday's final. I'm happy for Slovenia but can't honestly understand what you see in that Swiss song.

Romania made it through like I thought but their performance was even worse than I had expected. Like a parody of a eurovision entry. Instead Israel will be out for the 4th year in a row. Poor Israel, they must really start to think the rest of us hate them.

Last year, no ex-Yugoslav countries made it to the final, this year will be a Baltic-free event. But all five Nordic countries made it for a second year in a row.

There is so much to take in and digest - and I feel I am just rambling on here - but at least I am very pleased that my two favourites are through: Poland and Austria, the latter having received thunderous applause from the audience.

I am also very pleased for the youngsters from Seinäjoki. Softengine really deserved to go on to the final, but before the final somebody from the delegation has to sit them down and have a serious talk about cameras: what they do and why you should look at them every once in a while.

Now I'm off to bed - wake up call at 4:50 to go to morning television and discuss this matter further.

Semi 1: everybody loves a surprise

Everybody loves a surprise or two at the Eurovision Song Contest and just when we all thought everything was going like on rails, the biggest surprise in years just hit us right over the face as San Marino made it to the final.

That crazy little Valentina Monetta actually managed to make her way into the top ten of this semi and for the first time the tiny tiny state will take a spot in the big Saturday final.

I did tweet during the show that Valentina again proved not to be good enough for Eurovision - not bad but not good enough - and I still stand by that comment. Others, who didn't make the cut tonight - performed better than she did. They sang better and had stronger presence, but "Maybe" is also clearly the best out of the three songs Valentina and Ralph Siegel made together.

I think San Marino will be shark feed on Saturday and one of the strongest candidates for nul points but that matters very little now. You would need a heart of solid rock not to be happy for the Sammarinese delegation finally making it.

The other big surprise for me personally was that I managed to predict nine out of ten qualifiers correctly. Apart from San Marino I nailed them all - I thought about leaving Russia out or putting Belgium in but left it the way it was. Sometimes a bit of gut feeling is all you need.

I'm a bit sorry that Estonia's ambitious performance lost out and I will miss a bit of Latvian quirk in the final, but I'd be a fool not to feel very pleased after this first semi.

The show was nice and the stage looks fantastic, even if the director sometimes can't resist the urge of showing the stage rather than the performances. I'd like to cut the scripts a bit shorter here and there (and preferably leave out some heteronormative jokes about which one of the male hosts the upcoming performer fancies and stuff like that) but on the total it was a very enjoyable show.

If DR keeps it up like this, nobody will remember that 2001 fiasco come Sunday. Well done.

ESC 2014: Let's scale a bit further!

Tastes differ, but I know for sure I thoroughly enjoyed the new scaled-down version of the Eurovision Song Contest presented by SVT this year. The smaller venue makes for a more intimate feel, the audience comes closer to the performers and the cameras surely came closer as well.

The camera work was accurate, tight and brought about a warmth that has been missing in some of the bigger arenas.

I really think this is the way to go - a more humane and warmer event is what Europe needs rather than a glossy but cold production. I hope DR will continue and try to stick to the same idea and find new ways of downshifting.

Unless something radical happens in the world - like the end of the financial crisis, for instance - and countries start streaming back into the ESC en masse, I would have another suggestion.

26 songs in the final actually does feel a bit much. I'm a huge eurofan but I feel that it is hard to digest and compare that many songs at once. How will the general audience feel, then?

If the number of participating countries for 2014 will be forty or less, I suggest it is time to scale the final down a bit. I have been thinking about it for quite some time already and when one of my regular readers mentioned similar thoughts in a comment, I think maybe I'm not all wrong.

If we would have eight qualifiers per semi final instead, that would bring the number of finalists down to 22 - just like it was back in the late 80's. Twenty-two is a number you can handle and it would free up quite a lot of time in the show as well. There would be more time for the host broadcaster to leave their own mark on the show and yet the voting would avoid feeling rushed or stressful.

This year, eight finalists per semi would have meant some of my personal favourites would have missed the final - most notably Estonia and Finland - but it would have given Petra Mede more time to breathe during the voting sequence.

If a drop down to 22 feels too dramatic, then have nine qualifiers per semi and make it 24 finalists. It would already be better.

It would make it a bit harder to qualify, but if it could enhance the most important product of the Eurovision factory - the Saturday night final - then be it. I think the EBU should have a look into it. For the sake of more accessible watching.