ESC 2023: Tobson takes a final guess

Usually it is so hard to write this final prediction for the final but this year it feels really easy.

You see, I have dual citizenship so I am going to win tonight. Finland vs Sweden. I honestly can't see any other ending to this year than a battle between those two.

In one corner we have Sweden, making a bold move by entering not only a former winner but an ESC monument in the shape of Loreen. An artist who shaped the idea of what an ESC entry could be like for years after her victory.

"Tattoo" is nowhere near as groundbreaking as "Euphoria" was but is still a devastatingly well written pop gem with an excellent hook and a terrific soundscape. Loreen would be a well deserved double winner.

My only problem with Sweden winning is that Melodifestivalen isn't really in brilliant shape at the moment. "Tattoo" was very much alone in the line-up, surrounded by pretty basic songs written by a small pool of people seemingly determined to write many songs instead of shaping a few songs into perfection.

In the other corner, there is Finland. The incredible story of a complete underdog that miraculously found a liberal dose of self-confidence and turned its depressing national final into a bubbly hit factory full of great ideas and new talent.

But can we be so sure it will only be about those two? Isn't there anyone else who could emerge a surprise winner? France could. Italy could. 

If the old world order breaks down, even Spain could possibly win and take revenge for all locally flavoured songs that were ignored through the years. 

But seriously. No. It's Finland or Sweden. Maybe there could be a surprise jury winner - think North Macedonia 2019 - but in the end Finland or Sweden will battle it out.

Who will it be, then? I do think Loreen has the upper hand and is the more likely winner. But I would never forgive myself if Finland won and I hadn't predicted it. So my final bet is Finland.

My attempt att predicting the top 26 looks like this: 01. Finland, 02. Sweden, 03. Italy, 04. France, 05. Belgium, 06. Slovenia, 07. Ukraine, 08. Australia, 09. Lithuania, 10. Spain, 11. Norway, 12. Portugal, 13. Czechia, 14. Austria, 15. Israel, 16. Estonia, 17. Armenia, 18. Moldova, 19. Serbia, 20. United Kingdom, 21. Croatia, 22. Albania, 23. Cyprus, 24. Germany, 25. Switzerland, 26. Poland.

This is such a shot a dark, most of this prediction is happy guessing. Most it apart from the top two. (Note how my prediction would also give Flanders and Slovenia their best results ever.)

Have a fun night and see you on the other side. Or on Twitter, feel free to join the fun also there.

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ESC 2023, semi 2: Tobson takes a guess

Let's be frank and not beat around the bush: Tuesday's semi was an awful lot stronger than the one we are offered today. Indisputable fact.

Isn't it a shame that the two semi finals turn out so uneven in quality? It really is. 

Is there something that could be done about that? That's a hard no.

The producers already have so much power in sequencing the running order. If they were also to divide the contestants into semi finals - based on such fluid criteria as what is a good song or not - then we would find ourselves on thin ice. Leave at least a few things to chance also in the future.

It's not like you won't be entertained tonight. There will be good songs and stuff to enjoy, but there is no potential Saturday night winner in sight. 

The biggest problem trying to predict these songs are that they are in many cases very similar in quality and therefore interchangeable. What people at home will vote for in the end is anybody's guess. What you are reading right now is my guess and it reads as follows:

I'd say AUSTRIA, AUSTRALIA and SLOVENIA are certain qualifiers. I think I dare count BELGIUM into this group since it is very distinct in regards to both sound and vision. 

Then there are the girls with ballads. LITHUANIA should sail through easily. It is maybe a bit square in its studio recording but lives and breathes on stage. Having a backing group obviously singing live is also an advantage in this year of extensively used pre-recorded backing vocals. ESTONIA should go through on vocal talent and intensity but you can never be totally sure.

ARMENIA and GEORGIA both have a somewhat artsy approach. Quality entries but are they accessible enough on a first listen? ALBANIA is basically Family Feud interpreted through song but will there be too much pathos at once?

DENMARK has a radio friendly song that sounds great in your headphones but will they manage to keep it interesting for three minutes on stage? CYPRUS raises similar questions as he is more interesting than the song he's been set up with. GREECE has a talented teenager whose future should be bright but who was possibly sent into the international limelight a bit too soon. I hope fate is kind to Victor Vernicos tonight.

ICELAND has great energy but unfortunately has a pretty weak composition. So does POLAND but this kind of dumb summer staple has an annoying habit of hitting home sometimes.

SAN MARINO and ROMANIA both give us some sort of rock vibe, but to no avail. Both songs feel unfinished (for want of a better word) and should pass the voters by.

Based on this, my guess is that the following ten songs will qualify tonight: Denmark, Armenia, Estonia, Belgium, Greece, Slovenia, Georgia, Austria, Lithuania and Australia. 

Out: Romania, Cyprus, Iceland, Poland, San Marino and Albania.

On Tuesday, I predicted eight out of ten qualifiers which is in no way extraordinary. I could get even less tonight: suddenly Cyprus hits a nerve (never underestimate eyes as pretty as his), Albania breaks through (never mess with an emotional Albanian family) or Poland finds the right key (unlikely but still) and then I stand there corrected.

As always I will hang out on Twitter, feel free to call me out on my prediction shortcomings over there.

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ESC 2023, semi 1: Tobson takes a guess

It never gets easier, does it? You'd think that watching five-hundred years of Eurovision would at some point turn prediction into a piece of cake but that's where you are wrong. You can never fully know how the winds will blow at that final, crucial moment when everything is decided.

This year, there are also two major factors there to make prediction even harder (even though nobody needed it to be harder than it already was).

First thing: the juries are gone and will not be back until the final. Tonight the viewers are completely in charge of who gets the ticket for the final or not. It is easy to think that would favour simple songs with instant appeal but in recent years, the viewers often gravitated towards more demanding entries - far more so than the juries.

Second thing: it is always harder to predict a semi final with fewer songs.

Every year there is always one or two songs that turns out to have placed a lot better than anyone expected - maybe 12th in the semi instead of second last. When you only have fifteen entries, that unexpected support could suddenly mean a tenth place and a spot in the final. Tiny marginal coincidences could decide more than a few finalists tonight.

Tonight there is also a third thing, really. This is a very strong semi final and more than ten songs would deserve to qualify. It's unfortunate we will lose something good tonight and instead get a few fillers on Thursday.

So, who will it be? I am totally convinced that NORWAY, PORTUGAL, SWEDEN and FINLAND are in. ISRAEL is more of a show than a good song but will surely make the cut too. Then we head into question mark territory.

AZERBAIJAN has a breezy, Beatles-esque feel to it but remains the country's weakest effort to date. IRELAND suddenly has fans but the song must be too formulaic and tired in the end. SWITZERLAND is weak but has a polished performance and a good vocalist. I would leave all three out but am no longer as sure as I was.

The NETHERLANDS has a great song but dubious vocals, if they get it wrong tonight they're out. CZECHIA sounds great in studio but could turn into just another entry if they have bad luck. MOLDOVA is very much doing their own thing, I think they are in but the whole thing gets a bit repetitive before it is over.

CROATIA is the mad one, the one you'd think a viewing audience would swallow whole. But is it too messy? And will lovers of the weird find themselves rooting for Finland in the end?

Then it is my darlings MALTA, SERBIA and LATVIA. I want them all in the final but can see them all fail. Latvia is an excellent but demanding piece of music but I fear they will be the best song left in the semi (again). I thought Serbia were safe but it seems to pass over a lot of heads I thought would love it. But I can't be the only one hooked on Malta's sunny and playful saxophone beat?

Given all these circumstances, the ten finalists will be: Norway, Malta, Portugal, Croatia, Israel, Moldova, Sweden, Czechia, Netherlands and Finland.

Out: Serbia, Latvia, Ireland, Switzerland, Azerbaijan.

This is all impossible anyway, isn't it? I wish you could all see my face melt tonight when Ireland is the first qualifier they call out. 

I hope I am wrong about Serbia and Latvia (but not at any cost, mind you). I will tweet my way through the whole thing, so maybe I see you there.

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ESC 2022: Tobson takes a final guess

The time has come to put my money where my mouth is and take my final and ultimate guess at how the final of the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest will end. The whole season everything felt completely wide open - between a number of strong candidates it seemed wide open - and two hours before the final the feeling remains the same.

Maybe not AS open as a few of the songs that formerly seemed like contenders have lost their momentum or ended up in the shade. Some because of disappointing performance, some because the competition proved too hard, some because they got a bad spot in the running order.

But there are still four or five songs that could easily take the victory. I genuinely think the United Kingdom and Spain will both go far but not all the way, but maybe they will surprise me. Italy could turn on all power gears and take an unusual double. Ukraine could capture enough emotion to get to the top.

Since the running order takes a few unexpected twist and turns, we also have a real chance to see a real surprise winner emerge out of the blue. Maybe France still has a chance? Maybe Norway is the fun break we all didn't know we needed?

But no - all roads lead back to the same answer for me. I think Sweden will grab its seventh victory tonight. Cornelia Jakobs and her intense performance is likely to sway jurors and viewers alike and run away with the trophy.

Poor Germany will end in another disappointing last place unless Romania or Switzerland manages to break their fall. Maybe they could get a glow up for 2023 like the UK and Spain had this time?

My attempt at predicting the top 25 looks like this: 01. Sweden, 02. Ukraine, 03. Italy, 04. United Kingdom, 05. Spain, 06. Netherlands, 07. Estonia, 08. France, 09. Greece, 10. Norway, 11. Moldova, 12. Lithuania, 13. Portugal, 14. Poland, 15. Serbia, 16. Australia, 17. Finland, 18. Czech republic, 19. Armenia, 20. Belgium, 21. Iceland, 22. Azerbaijan, 23. Switzerland, 24. Romania, 25. Germany.

Please hang with me and tell me how wrong I am over at Twitter. Let's hope for a very entertaining evening and maybe for a surprise or two?

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ESC 2022, semi 2: Tobson takes a guess

 

It is time to complete the Saturday lineup with the final ten songs and the question is always if predicting the second semi is easier than the first. Can you look at what worked on Tuesday night and make some waterproof conclusions on what works or not this specific year?

No. You can't. Sorry.

Thursday night has different jurors. Different viewers. And a completely new set of coicidences.

We have for instance no idea what songs advanced because the viewers loved them or the juries loved them and who just scraped by in a lucky accident because of a solid average. 

Worth noticing is however that the mid-tempo songs didn't eat each other's points the way I would have thought and if there's anything the final is beginning to lack a bit, then it is tempo and beats. But the people voting tonight won't necessarily know that and even if they knew I'm not sure they'd care.

Eight acts will leave the show tonight and I think it will be the following:

ISRAEL

Loud and without a melody, pretty much what was Albania's downfall on Tuesday. Michael does what he can but no. The Israeli qualification streak ends here.

MALTA

Emma is well known in the host country and it is sad she won't make it to the final. But if Maltese tv felt the need to go shopping for an entry elsewhere, why did they settle for this very bleak ditty? Who would stand up and cheer for this?

NORTH MACEDONIA

Another good singer with very little to work with. The song is competent but never takes off and goes nowhere.

ROMANIA

Very much like Latvia, this has caught the attention and liking of many a Eurovision fan. It has a pretty nice instrumental thingy and a compellingly gay atmosphere but it never rises beyond being endearingly rubbish. This year's Slavko (or was that Albania?).

IRELAND

This is where I'd hope to be wrong. I'd love a piece of slightly trashy 80's pop in the final but Ireland rarely knows how to row this sort of boat into the harbour. Strong "Et Cetera" vibes here. The Austria of this semi final.

MONTENEGRO

I thought this would be a qualifier and with a solid performance it still has its chances - the juries are never averse to a strong voice - but I put my finger in the air and feel the time for the big updated comeback of the Balkan ballad isn't here yet.

GEORGIA

An early fave of mine that I still ugly dance to in my kitchen but it has grown off me ever so slightly and I doubt the visual choices of the band will convince the average voter. I'd love to be wrong but I don't think I will be.

ESTONIA

Look, I don't want to have to do this. If it was up to me I'd leave out impeccably produced but anonymous Azerbaijan or overly theatrical Australia. It could just as well be Finland missing the mark, leaning too much on routine instead of connecting with the audience. It could be Belgium sounding slightly too aggressive. Stefan is a great singer but Estonia going all "The Good, The Bad and The Ugly" comes very much out of the blue. I think people will enjoy it but not vote for it enough.

This would mean my final ten qualifiers are: Finland, Serbia, Azerbaijan, San Marino, Australia, Cyprus, Poland, Belgium, Sweden and Czech republic. (Personally, I'd gladly swap Azerbaijan and Australia for Georgia and Ireland but I don't see that happening.)

You agree? You disagree? I'll spend the semi final on Twitter, feel free to join the conversation there.

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ESC 2022, semi 1: Tobson takes a guess

So, here we are. Loads of rehearsals have lead up to the big moment when we are about to start losing some of this year's entries. Time for the first of two semi finals.

Following rehearsals - or rather following people's reactions to the rehearsals as I try to save myself some surprises for the live shows and avoid rehearsal footage - what unfortunately stands out this year is the very negative vibe surrounding the whole event this year.

It is fine to be vocal about things that don't work or when things don't live up the acceptable standards - boy, am I getting flashbacks to Baku or what - but there are different ways to voice your opinions. Until now it feels like Rai can't do anything right and that this goes down as the worst edition on record.

My big hope is that we will get served an okay semi final that is entertaining and engaging and fun to watch. Also I hope my prediction won't be completely disastrous.

Since there have been so many opinions flying about - many of which are VERY sure about how things are going to go - and I feel seriously confused by most of them, I am going to go with my gut feeling and also my initial emotion. Remember, to the crushing majority of the people voting these songs will be spanking new and will get judged on their three minute impression only.

So. In the first semi final we will unfortunately have to say goodbye to the following seven countries:

SLOVENIA

The lads are really doing their best and they look very sweet and feel very likeable but even though I enjoy this, I admit the song feels beige and overly complicated on a first listen. Simply too tame with no real hooks, this will probably fail to bring in serious points from any direction.

SWITZERLAND

Another one I personally enjoy but that I can't see collecting enough points to go through. Mainly because competition is fierce in among the emotional ballads in this semi. It's not possible that they all qualify and some of them will fall short. Switzerland is the easiest one to pick out of that lot.

CROATIA

A bit of a personal favourite with its gentle touch and light feel. Mia is very good but I don't know how Croatia keeps sending in these songs that lacks that final little something to make them qualify. I'll be sad seeing this one go.

DENMARK

Denmark has a way of sneaking into the final somehow ahead of songs that would deserve it better but can it really happen this time? This song comes across as trying to artificially connect two songs of different genres and end up being something I can't see anyone having as their favourite. Too constructed and not engaging enough. Surely?

LATVIA

It's a fun song that is dearly loved by many fans who love to shout that word the lead singer isn't allowed to pronounce, but for all the people seeing and hearing it for the first time I think it will appear to be your typical lightweight Latvian ditty that is nice for as long as it goes on and then too lightweight to be remembered once the phone lines open. 

ALBANIA

This is possibly where my prediction turns horribly wrong but ever since I first heard this, my thought was that it's mainly a fun rhythm track without a lot of melody to support it. It's fun and danceable but not very easy to get a hold of on one listen. Ronela seems lovely so I wouldn't mind being wrong for her sake.

BULGARIA

The only rock lads in the semi could appeal to a rather large demographic that listen to radio stations where anemic standard formula rock is the largest staple but do these people vote? Flawless production but not an outstanding song. How far can you go with cool pyro, aren't those days long gone?

This is a very tight race where many songs are pretty similar and fighting for the same pool of points while the standard is generally high. If my prediction is right, our ten finalists will be: Lithuania, Ukraine, Netherlands, Moldova, Portugal, Austria, Iceland, Greece, Norway and Armenia. 

Out of these ten, the one I worry for the most is my personal darling Monika Liu from Lithuania but I keep telling myself a good song and a strong personality must break through. 

I'll spend the semi final tweeting away so feel free to give me your hottest takes.

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Tobson speaks up: ESC 2022, the finalists

The best thing about the ESC being hosted by one of the big five countries is that we will have twenty-five songs in the final, which is a pretty ideal number.

I don't know why that one song makes such a difference but it does. It's as if there was some sort of invisible line between twenty-five and twenty-six, where many become too many. Maybe it won't be as much of a negative singing last in the final this time?

Anyway, it's not impossible also next year's final will have twenty-five entries since the Big Five have overall made big efforts (most of them) and it's not entirely unthinkable that one of them would run away with the trophy again.

Here are my (slightly longer) opinions on the songs already in the final.

ITALY

Mahmood & Blanco / Brividi

The burning question ever since Måneskin won last year has been if Italy would now be the first county to secure a home victory since Ireland in 1994. Sanremo has been in good shape as of late - thoroughly updated but still firmly focusing on songs and singing over visual gimmicks - something that seems to have slowly trickled back to the ESC as well. So, will there be a double? It is definitely not out of reach. "Brividi" is an outstanding song, superbly performed, and especially Mahmood has an incredible way of working the cameras. At least it will be the first host country act to place top five since Frans and if it isn't I will have to ask to talk to the manager.

Grade: 5/5

FRANCE

Alvan & Ahez / Fulenn

Pretty wild to go from French having its best showing in the contest for many a good day to the first year ever without a single song in the language of Voltaire. Instead we get a mashup between a rave party and a fest-noz in Breton and I'm very happy with that too. Musically, this is top crop with a lot of catchy elements and a really convincing backing track. If it hadn't been for the rather poor visuals and messy camera work we've seen so far, this could be a potential winner too. If we are given a tighter production, this could be a dark horse.

Grade: 4/5

GERMANY

Malik Harris / Rockstars

The last decade has lead me to think that the people in charge of the German participation has no idea what the ESC is, how it works and what you need to be successful there. Given what it looked like from the outset, Germany somehow got it surprisingly right this time. Malik isn't bad and the song has its inspired moments and has won a number of fans in the lead-up to the contest. Seriously, though. Germany has the potential to go top five every year and with that in mind, this just isn't good enough.

Grade: 2/5

SPAIN

Chanel / SloMo

What a lift the Benidorm Fest turned out to be for the Eurovision brand in Spain. It gave the audience high production values, loads of entertainment, a high rate of engagement and loads of media coverage. The one thing they have to improve for coming years is the lineup: while most songs were good, few felt like potential contenders at the ESC. Chanel is working hard and "SloMo" has a hit single kind of air to it, but is also fairly linear and lacking in climax. It will do better than Spanish entries have done of late but probably nowhere near as good as many fans expect.

Grade: 3/5

UNITED KINGDOM

Sam Ryder / Space Man

Seeing the UK enter a song that could potentially score points and end up on the left side of the scoreboard is such a seismic event these days that it made many people lose their heads a bit. It is a compelling piece of songwriting, very competently performed, put together from some very familiar bits and pieces (a pinch of Bowie, some late-60's psychedelia, and I swear that bridge is Something that The Beatles recorded at some point). But then there is one fact that applies also to the UK: you don't always get a good score just because you made an effort, you also need luck. In other words, this could place anywhere between 5th and 15th in the final. Unless Sam hits a bulls eye and knocks it out of the park on that Saturday night, then anything is possible. Best UK entry since Imaani either way. 

Grade: 4/5

Feel free to check out my reviews of the songs in semi one and semi two as well. 

Tobson speaks up: ESC 2022, semi 2

After I published part one I realised I am doing it all wrong. In this review I should of course have listed the ten songs I myself would have wanted to make it to the final, not the ones I predict.

You see, these two things are not the same. When making predictions you should try to avoid wishful thinking as much as only possible, while some wishful thinking can be amusing to read too.

Hey ho, it doesn't matter all that much, it's just a blog after all and we have eighteen songs of the second semi to take a closer look at.

01. FINLAND
The Rasmus / Jezebel

One of the biggest names in this years line-up even if their biggest hit happened almost twenty years ago. It's no "In The Shadows" but an explosive opener all the same and very recognisable for the band's fans as well as for the people who had forgotten they were Rasmus fans as well.

Grade: 3/5

02. ISRAEL

Michael Ben David / I.M

Being gay and proud in the public eye always took a certain amount of audacity, not least now the way things have turned out lately. I would love to fully support this but while the performance has a shameless over-the-top-quality to it, this is one of my least favourite songs of the year. Three minutes of nothing, basically.

Grade: 1/5

03. SERBIA

Konstrakta / In corpore sano

The sharpest teeth in the contest come in the shape of a woman constantly washing her hands in a subversive piece of satire that refuses to be cute or whimsical. Catchy and almost hypnotic but possibly a hard sell to a mainstream audience. I hope everyone will see the brilliance but I could be hoping for too much.

Grade: 4/5

04. AZERBAIJAN

Nadir Rustamli / Fade To Black

Azerbaijan does what always worked for them: they opened up their large wallet and bought an impeccably produced song with no connection what-so-ever to anything local. Maybe this time the strategy came back to bite their own behinds: in a year where so many acts try to do their own thing, this song is so polished it is hard to remember in the end. Surprise non-qualifyer? Not impossible.

Grade: 2/5

05. GEORGIA

Circus Mircus / Lock Me In

Spaced out psychedelia not unlike the last song Georgia qualified with back in 2016. Just like that one, this will be saved or crushed by what the audience can see on their screens. Reports suggest this band isn't all that live on stage but maybe that could be sorted with nifty camera work. Let's hope so since the actual tune, while not as clever as it thinks it is, is a gem.

Grade: 4/5

06. MALTA

Emma Muscat / I Am What I Am

Why do they keep doing this to their singers (and to their songwriters)? Is this the best song they could come up with? While technically not a melodifestivalen reject, it sure sounds like one and will score like one.

Grade: 1/5

07. SAN MARINO

Achille Lauro / Stripper

One of my biggest questions marks of the year. I have enjoyed Achille a great deal in Sanremo over the years and he has an intensity that can melt tv cameras from quite a distance, but the song he settled for here is way more album filler than hit single and the star himself comes across as a tad uncommitted to the whole thing. Will this light up when it needs to or are we looking at the shock NQ of the year?

Grade: 3/5

08. AUSTRALIA

Sheldon Riley / Not The Same

Sheldon pours his heart out in front of us and while I'd like to respond to that, this entry does nothing for me. Just like last year, the theatrics get in the way and this just ends up being a lot of voice with no real chorus to work with. All things on display here are obviously the artist's own choices, but while I respect that I can only state that for me the package never comes together.

Grade: 1/5

09. CYPRUS

Andromache / Ela

Let's ignore that fact that a ridiculous ten people are listed as having written this song and just listen on the actual song. Cyprus let go of the party vibe and settled for a song that sounds international and very Greek at the same time, impeccably performed by a good voice. I'm smitten and I'm sure more people will be come Eurovision week.

Grade: 4/5

10. IRELAND

Brooke / That's Rich

Ireland goes pop and usually when they do it does not bode well for a great result. I find myself thoroughly amused by both the song and the performance but predict this will go down a bit like "Et Cetera" did. Unless being the first uptempo pop stomper in a while makes it catch the audiences attention, that is.

Grade: 3/5

11. NORTH MACEDONIA

Andrea / Circles

They do nothing wrong. The singing is good and the songwriting is technically fine. But nothing happens and this entry stands still for a solid three minutes. Nobody can afford doing that at this point in this semi.

Grade: 1/5

12. ESTONIA

Stefan / Hope

"The Good, The Bad And The Ugly" performed by The Handsome from Viljandi. It's a bit of an odd choice coming from Estonia but it is perfectly pleasant and lives very highly on Stefan's charm. A real borderline qualifier, like so many others in this semi. Maybe we are in for some big surprises?

Grade: 2/5

13. ROMANIA

WRS / Llámame

I have really tried - I mean really really tried - to get into the vibe of this one. I like that little instrumental thingy, you see. But the rest of it is very basic and uninspired and amateurish and unworthy of anyone's attention. Romania used to be so good at this game, where did they go wrong? Fourth NQ in a row, for sure.

Grade: 1/5

14. POLAND

Ochman / River

Clearly the best Polish entry in quite some time but I'm not quite as sold as many others. Ochman has a good voice but never really connected with the cameras in the national final. The song is also a patchwork of bits and pieces from songs that already exist, which is fine in itself until it becomes too obvious and takes your attention away from the actual performance.

Grade: 3/5

15. MONTENEGRO

Vladana / Breathe

Montenegro making quite the comeback with a catchy midtempo ballad that is not without chances, an updated take on the big so-called Balkan Ballad that used to create havoc in this contest in the previous decades. The big question is if people have missed this style or find it a leftover from times gone by? If Vladana nails her vocals, my guess is the first alternative.

Grade: 3/5

16. BELGIUM

Jérémie Makiese / Miss You

Every year there is at least one entry that you intellectually recognise as a quality entry that will go down well even when it doesn't really do much for you personally. For me, that is Belgium this year. Jérémie is clearly very talented and there are hooks aplenty in here. Not my cup of tea but I don't think that will constitute any major problem at this stage.

Grade: 2/5

17. SWEDEN

Cornelia Jakobs / Hold Me Closer

After years of impeccably polished if not terribly exciting entries, Sweden finally got it right. Cornelia offers drama, intensity and a beating heart, showing how you can be both polished and engaging at the same time. Easily Sweden's best attempt since Loreen and a very possible winner in the end.

Grade: 5/5

18. CZECH REPUBLIC

We Are Domi / Lights Out

The second semi ends on a tricky note for me. This moody electro pop is just the kind of thing that makes my heart beat to its very BPM but I still suspect this style could prove to be a bit too unspectacular to hit home at this stage. Fingers crossed this isn't a disappointing 11th place in the making.

Grade: 4/5

In conclusion, this semi feels much more open and a lot less easy to predict. I think Finland, Serbia, Cyprus, Poland, Montenegro, Belgium and Sweden can sleep easy but the rest will have to do their best to impress. In the end I say Georgia, San Marino and Czech republic will steal the final tickets to the final which would leave Israel, Azerbaijan, Malta, Australia, Estonia, North Macedonia and Romania out.

Please check out my predictions for semi one here and feel free to leave a comment or two.

Tobson speaks up: ESC 2022, semi 1

It is the time of year when I shake some life into this old blog of mine - usually I blog my way through the Eurovision history in Swedish here - to focus on the upcoming contest in Turin.

In this first blog post I will write my personal opinion about the songs in the first semi and then predict the top ten qualifiers based on the preview versions alone.

It's not a bad year we have ahead of us: if it is one lesson people seem to have learned from last year, then it is how being personable and having a song that sounds like it means something to the people performing it is a clever trick.

01. ALBANIA

Ronela Hajati / Sekret

A fine opener with ambitions to blend dance music and traditional lore together. Perhaps it ends up being more of a rhythm track than a functioning song and maybe people will find other songs they will like more before the semi final is over, but we will surely have a good time together with Ronela during these three minutes.

Grade: 2/5

02. LATVIA

Citi Zēni / Eat Your Salad

For a while it felt like Latvia really had a buzz going and would be the viral wonder of the year, but now the temperature has gone down considerably. A fun track that will have its fans, but ultimately the whole thing is probably too silly to stand a real chance.

Grade: 2/5

03. LITHUANIA

Monika Liu / Sentimentai

The first of my personal favourites to take the stage this year. France 2021 meets a very sensual and totally bonkers cabaret performer and magic happens. Not sure at all Europe will embrace this on a Tuesday night but I love it.

Grade: 4/5

04. SWITZERLAND

Marius Bear / Boys Do Cry

A sweet song about comforting your inner child (I guess), sensitively performed by a likeable singer, but a most unfavourable spot in the running is likely to keep Switzerland in the semis after two strong showings. Unless Marius really works the cameras, then this could be a surprise in the making.

Grade: 3/5

05. SLOVENIA

LPS / Disko

If this was the talent night at the local high school, LPS would charm everyone and have us eating out of their hands. A charming little effort but the lack of experience becomes too evident in the end.

Grade: 2/5

06. UKRAINE

Kalush Orchestra / Stefania

Of course the entry of Ukraine was bound to be brilliant. They often are and this year it actually means an awful lot for them to be represented in the best possible light. And they are, reaching musical and emotional heights few others can compete with. The most obvious qualifier in this semi and not at all an unlikely eventual winner.

Grade: 5/5

07. BULGARIA

Intelligent Music Project / Intention

Not as bad as some people want to make out. An okay slice of a very beige version of rock that some people like a lot. Måneskin it is not and a qualifier it is not, but it is technically competent.

Grade: 2/5

08. NETHERLANDS

S10 / De diepte

This one ticks a lot of boxes in my list: an emotional song that seems to mean a lot to its performer with the added bonus of being sung in the local language. There are other strong contenders with a similar approach in this semi, but S10 has the big advantage of being the first of them. 

Grade: 4/5

09. MOLDOVA

Zdob și Zdub feat Frații Advahov / Trenulețul

If one act really got so lucky with the running order, then it is this happy rock/folk mashup that balances skillfully on that thin line between adorable and ridiculous. The ESC version is arguably less effective than the original mix but little does that matter at this point. Moldova will choo choo their way straight into the final with ease.

Grade: 4/5

10. PORTUGAL

Maro / Saudade, saudade

Lucky break for the next female emotional ballad to have Moldova between herself and the Netherlands. This is full of harmony and is pretty much balm for the soul. A wonderful little oasis with its very radio friendly take on traditional music.

Grade: 4/5

11. CROATIA

Mia Dimšić / Guilty Pleasure

Another radio friendly song with a solid performance. Competent but I'm afraid Croatia could again find themselves south of the relegation line, only by a couple of millimeters. Competent but definitely running the risk of not being striking enough on a first listen.

Grade: 3/5

12. DENMARK

Reddi / The Show

I see what is happening here, Denmark think they are going out on a limb and doing something daring and unexpected. Not a bad song but the whole package feels so constructed and calculated and not a bit like the punk pop they themselves think it is. 

Grade: 2/5

13. AUSTRIA

Lumix feat Pia Maria / Halo

Bang! Suddenly Austria came out of nowhere and hit me over the head with their entry and made me feel nostalgia for a genre I never in a zillion years thought I'd feel nostalgia about. Very catchy indeed and unless they make a complete mess of this live, then this should be a very safe qualifier.

Grade: 4/5

14. ICELAND

Systur / Með hækkandi sól

Musically very appealing, very First Aid Kit and very easy to enjoy. Not really a visual feast, perhaps. Will have to fight it out with Armenia over the same points. Borderline qualifier.

Grade: 3/5

15. GREECE

Amanda Tenfjord / Die Together

A very slick studio production and its biggest problem is exactly that - how super studio produced it is. What is this going to sound like live? I'm very fond of Greece sending entries that sound like real pop singles - I absolutely LOVED the studio version of "Better Love" - but it will be a challenge to make this one flow effortlessly on stage.

Grade: 3/5

16. NORWAY

Subwoolfer / Give That Wolf A Banana

Amusing, silly, catchy and the song that will end all hope Latvia ever had of qualifying. Almost as amusing as this song is watching all those eurofans hate is (mainly because it is amusing). 

Grade: 4/5

17. ARMENIA

Rosa Linn / Snap

Contemporary country vibe by another likeable singer - there are many of them in this lineup - and this could very well be the song that causes Iceland to miss the final. 

Grade: 3/5

My prediction at this point is that Ukraine, Netherlands, Moldova, Portugal, Austria, Greece, Norway, Armenia, Lithuania and Iceland will make the cut and that Albania, Latvia, Switzerland, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Croatia and Denmark will leave us. But what do I know? And how many times will I change my mind before the semi actually takes place?

Semi 2 review coming up soon.

ESC 2021, semi 2: Tobson takes a guess

Overall the guessing game went fairly well on Tuesday. I lost one of my biggest favourites in Croatia but got nine out of ten finalists correct. That was nice. Let's see if we get even close in the second semi.

First of all, it is easy to point out the biggest loser of this semi as Iceland has withdrawn from performing live due to one of the band members testing positive for Covid. What a disappointing ending to the adventure for the entire team. I think Iceland will qualify for Saturday but they won't be able to perform then either. Imagine winning but not being there to receive your trophy? Heart-breaking.

Just like in the first semi, there are some songs that feel like obvious non-qualifiers. Not necessarily because they are bad but because they seem unlikely to be anyone's big favourite. Then some others fluctuate in some sort of danger zone and will need the millimetres on their side to go through.

ESTONIA and LATVIA are most likely to drop out - the first is too eager to please and the other wants too badly to be edgy at the expense of any real tune. Lithuania will represent the Baltics in final.

SAN MARINO managed to get their famous rapper into frame and that probably puts them firmly in the final. It is probably also the kiss of death for CZECH REPULIC, tapping into a similar musical pool for votes. If it was down to the song, I would clearly reverse the two.

AUSTRIA and PORTUGAL both aim for the musician vote, the one that Belgium supposedly got in the first semi. Both could possibly get away with it but I still think neither song is strong enough to do the trick. GEORGIA is also a very sweet effort that could sway musicians on the jury and - hey presto! - there are three songs to divide the musician vote. 

MOLDOVA and SERBIA are both going for the party vote and Hurricane clearly has the upper hand there. Reports have suggested Moldova hasn't impressed in rehearsals, but it still is a fun song. POLAND wants to be a fun song too, but their old-boy band approach isn't much by any standard.

GREECE is very good at going through and they have a strong chorus as well as a green screen. But they are also possibly eclipsed by Serbia. 

And then there is DENMARK. One of my two personal favourites tonight (SWITZERLAND is more than safe, though) and the first Danish entry I care for in almost two decades. It would be a real shame if their first relevant entry - in the sense that it would mean anything to anyone outside of the context of the ESC - got thrown out and it would definitely teach the Danish viewers the wrong lesson.

Since I clearly have no idea what I am doing, I will go out on a limb and predict using a fair share of wishful thinking. I'd rather predict the way I want it to be and stand there corrected in the end.

Tonight we will lose: Estonia, Czech republic, Austria, Poland, Georgia, Portugal and Latvia.

To the final: San Marino, Greece, Moldova, Iceland, Serbia, Albania, Bulgaria, Finland, Switzerland and Denmark. (Please please pleeease let me be right about Denmark.)

I'll spend the evening on Twitter, please make me feel better if my predictions fall through.

Follow @TobsonHelsinki

ESC 2021, semi 1: Tobson takes a guess

 

The first semi final is almost here so it is about time to do the impossible: predict what six entries will be voted off the island and end their Eurovision adventure tonight. I'm pretty sure about four of the unlucky ones but then a number of entries float around in the risk area of relegation.

To my surprise SWEDEN has failed to make an impression in Rotterdam. The first rehearsals left the press on location cold and Tusse had problems with his voice as well as with his in-ears. All of this should be sorted by now and "Voices" have risen in the press estimation but there is no buzz.

I'd like to think NORWAY is through thanks to a good song but the stage appearance runs the risk of pushing people away. Not sure the silly (not to say outright creepy) online flirt between him and Efendi was the best publicity either.

Efendi from AZERBAIJAN is another one I'm not sure about. I think her fans liked her song from last year and fail to see that tonight's rewrite lacks all the energy the original had. And the vast majority of the audience have not heard the first version.

ROMANIA is a song I am very fond of, but news reports suggest she has been singing badly all week. ISRAEL should sail into the final on Eden Alene's personality alone but there is a real risk people do not wish to vote for this because of the current events. 

BELGIUM could be drowned in jury points from musicians appreciating a "musician's entry" but could also lack the dynamics needed to impress people at home. And my beloved CROATIA could prove to be that one song with dancers too many. 

But there is no point in name-dropping, it is time to take a bold stand and do a real prediction.

Tonight we will lose: Slovenia, Australia, North Macedonia, Ireland, Romania and Belgium.

To the final: Lithuania, Russia, Sweden, Cyprus, Norway, Croatia, Israel, Azerbaijan, Ukraine and Malta

I'll spend the entire semi on Twitter, feel free to join the fun: chat with me, agree with me, tell me I'm wrong. (I'd love to be wrong about Belgium, really.)

Follow @TobsonHelsinki

Tobson predicts: Melodifestivalen 2021

It didn't take a particularly long time between The Mamas getting called out as the somewhat surprise winners of Melodifestivalen 2020 and the cancellation of the whole ESC in Rotterdam. It has been quite a year. 

The cancellation could have been a real blow to the ESC but the 2021 entries suggest otherwise. A lot of creativity has been set in motion. It seems people decided to rise to the occasion and try some new roads.

Melodifestivalen has done the same. For the last years I have found the Swedish flagship of tv entertainment lacking in several areas, being very much like many of the entries Sweden sent to the ESC. Tailor-made, professional and slick but without that beating heart underneath and with very little room for anything spontaneous or personable. This year something has changed.

The shows have been remarkably uneven but if you focus on the songs, I found myself fully engaging in several of them for the first time in years. Not least because there are finally songs that were not written specifically for Melodifestivalen, not written to please to producers.

When you give creative people space and let them create what they want to create, some wonderfully unexpected things will emerge. Melodifestivalen used to be full of them for the first ten years of the semi final format but lately the entries have been more streamlined. Until now.

This is my way of saying that the 2021 Melodifestivalen lineup in many ways was what I needed in my life and I am actively listening to at least half of these songs outside of the contest for the first time in years.

But it is time to select a winner and here are my views on the entries in the final - a final where the general standard is higher than in years. But does that mean I will agree with the winner?

01. Danny Saucedo / Dandi dansa

A light-hearted and uplifting start to the final with echoes of Jamiroquai, Eric Gadd and the first albums Orup made back in the late 80's. A happily dumb chorus and a song that has not been designed for this contest. Refreshing with a star who is ready to just bring his star status along and dance around without necessarily aiming at victory. Feels genuinely like it was written because somebody wanted to write a song and not because SVT needed something somebody they like could sing.

Grade: 4/5

02. Klara Hammarström / Beat Of Broken Hearts

If the first song is atypical for this contest in recent years, the second one is more familiar territory and clearly written with a Melfest formula in mind. But Klara is a real asset who dresses like a star and adds several layers of quality. She won't win this time but she'd headed in the right direction.

Grade: 3/5

03. Anton Ewald / New Religion

This was a surprise for me in the semis. Let's say my expectations were low but this dark and suggestive little number made me think of some late 80's single inspired by Depeche Mode. I like the darkness of this, something seldom seen in a Swedish final. The weak point is unfortunately Anton himself who is a gifted dancer but nowhere near as convincing as a performer. Imagine this with someone who could have filled it with a real sense of menace instead?

Grade: 3/5

04. The Mamas / In The Middle

Let me be frank. When The Mamas won last year I was very surprised. They are warm and talented and very likeable but their entry was much more of a mood than a fully functioning song. "In The Middle" is better but I still don't get the hype. In this age of pre-recorded backing vocals and singers who look cute but can only sing a bit, maybe it is mind-blowing for the audience to see someone who can perform the heck out of anything?

Grade: 2/5

05. Paul Rey / The Missing Piece

I liked this song a lot in its semi but since then it sort of slipped out of my attention. The strongest selling point is clearly the animated and uplifting live performance while the song in itself - when you only hear it and don't see it - remains a bit anonymous. Paul surely has what it takes to win but this is not his year.

Grade: 2/5

06. Charlotte Perrelli / Still Young

La Perrelli is back doing her best schlager diva and that in itself is a sight for sore eyes. The song itself takes no chances and is frankly little more than a rewrite of Pandora's "You" that crashed and burned in a 2003 semi but the way Charlotte elevates this with her determination and presence is nothing short of amazing. Could have made a proud ESC entry had the song been better.

Grade: 3/5

07. Tusse / Voices

This is the point where I disagree with my dear old Sweden. Tusse is a real talent and could be explosive with the right song but I don't think "Voices" is just that. It's very Sweden-by-the-numbers. An exercise in songwriting that will enthuse the ESC juries and then get a lukewarm televote result. I admit I looked through my fingers more than I should have when Måns was walking on the sun back in 2015, but the phrases lifted right out of "Starboy" really annoy me here. It seems this is everybody else's cup of tea this year but it certainly isn't mine.

Grade: 2/5

08. Alvaro Estrella / Baila baila

Take every tired latino pop cliché in the book, forge them together and you will have Baila baila in front of you. Like a tired fifth single off an old Enrique Iglesias album. Poor Alvaro Estrella who would really deserve better material.

Grade: 1/5

09. Clara Klingenström / Behöver inte dig idag

The opposite of Paul Rey: I like this a lot when I hear it in my headphones but the semi final performance left me a bit uneasy. Something about the way it was filmed didn't click with me, but the song and the voice has a raw nervous energy that is rare in a Swedish final. If there is a big surprise in the making, this could be it. And Sweden singing in Swedish at the ESC for the first time since 1998 would be very special.

Grade: 4/5

10. Eric Saade / Every Minute

Eric's thing was always to be some sort of likeable pop brat and while he did that well this new grown-up style suits him even better. Suddenly there is a frailty and vulnerability to his performance that is very becoming and this kind of minimalistic pop is very close to my heart. This is the sort of entry you get when you let people create freely instead of telling them what sort of songs they need to provide to get a spot on your show. My clear personal favourite a mile ahead of everything else in this final.

Grade: 5/5

11. Dotter / Little Tot

Dotter could have had this in the bag. "Little Tot" has way more personality than her entry of last year - so pleased she dropped the Sia soundalike ambition - and could have been a standout had the general standard been more like last year's. This is a solid entry and will further establish Dotter as a hitmaker but it seems unlikely she'll be given flowers and a trophy by the end of the show.

Grade: 3/5

12. Arvingarna / Tänker inte alls gå hem

SVT has established a tradition of ending the final with a feelgood entry that won't stand a chance in the voting but will leave everyone with a warm and cosy mood. That job is in very experienced hands as Arvingarna make the most of their schlager and although I'm glad to see them in the final I can't help but think to myself how it could have been Eva & Ewa closing this lineup instead and be a bit disappointed that never happened.

Grade: 3/5

What's my guess, then? Like seemingly everyone else, I think this will be a showdown between Eric Saade and Tusse and it all comes down to who the international jury likes better.

The international jury was once put in place to give Sweden a hint what would work in the ESC but with time it has become a watering hole for various friends of the Swedish delegation. The more fans and heads of delegation we have in the international jury, the less relevant it is. Let's see how it is composed and how it votes this year. If they have a runaway winner, they will override the will of the Swedish votes.

My guess is Tusse will win since he has the buzz as well as everyone's attention. I wish he also had a stronger song but maybe that's just me. I predict Tusse, hope for Eric Saade and secretly hope for a big surprise (perhaps in the shape of Clara Klingenström).

During the final you'll find me on Twitter as usual. Please feel free to say hello.

Tweet to @TobsonHelsinki

ESC 2019: Tobson's Final Say

I both love and hate this moment. When the time has come to try and predict who will actually win. Had you asked me in late March, I would have been rock steady in my prediction but since then all songs started living their own lives and now I have no idea.

I sincerely have no idea. Depending on what mood Europe is in, I'd say something around ten different countries could realistically win.

Here are tonight's entries and what I expect from them as the votes start coming in.

01. MALTA Michela / Chameleon
Out of the three songs wishing to be Fuego, Malta is the one that lost most of its momentum after the semis. It will be a great party starter but a slightly awkward performance doesn't do it any favours. Bottom half.
My grade: 2/5

02. ALBANIA Jonida Maliqi / Ktheju tokës
My biggest surprise qualifier from the second semi is a worthy finalist but that's the end of the fun. The slightly stiff live performance and the overly long wait for the pretty chorus will keep this one way down the scoreboard.
My grade: 2/5

03. CZECH REPUBLIC Lake Malawi / Friend Of A Friend
Just like in the first semi final, these happy guys will feel relaxed and upbeat and the audience will love and remember them enough to give them a chance of reaching top ten.
My grade: 4/5

04. GERMANY S!sters / Sister
Among all the potential winners in this lineup it feels good to be able to discard at least somebody. Germany seems all set to conquer their third last place in five contests and any result better than that should be hailed like victory.
My grade: 0/5

05. RUSSIA Sergey Lazarev / Scream
I feared the worst but Russia did the unexpected and delivered a slick and tasteful stage show and Sergey shines like the star he is even if the song is a bit on the weak side. A potential winner but not the most likely of the candidates on offer.
My grade: 3/5

06. DENMARK Leonora / Love Is Forever
Cute and likeable but coming after Russia reduces Denmark than little more than an extra interval act when people top up their drinks and snacks.
My grade: 2/5

07. SAN MARINO Serhat / Say Na Na Na
Sometimes you need more than three minutes to get all you need from the kitchen. Take your time, you won't miss much here. But at least San Marino will go back home with their best ever placing.
My grade: 1/5

08. NORTH MACEDONIA Tamara / Proud
Tamara did what I had stopped hoping for: North Macedonia keeping their performance focused and clean and powerful. A well deserved qualification and - possibly - the chance of grabbing a 10th place or so.
My grade: 3/5

09. SWEDEN John Lundvik / Too Late For Love
A deceptively lean visual appearance in the semi could easily fool you but this is arguably the best pop song in the running with a few really effective hooks. If John and The Mamas have an extra gear to put in now, this could carry all the way to a seventh victory.
My grade: 5/5

10. SLOVENIA Zala & Gašper / Sebi
This could fall either way in the final: either this loveliest of pop whispers is instantly forgotten or stands out like an oasis of calm and taste.
My grade: 4/5

11. CYPRUS Tamta / Replay
Like Malta, Cyprus has gone from hot favourite to something of a microwave dish. A possible radio hit in the making but nowhere near the top ten tonight.
My grade: 3/5

12. THE NETHERLANDS Duncan Laurence / Arcade
Intense and sensitive and clearly a potential winner. That would be awesome but I still wonder if that piano is coming between Duncan and the audience in the end.
My grade: 4/5

13. GREECE Katerine Duska / Better Love
One of my biggest personal favourites is floating around in space slightly below all the expected favourites. Divisive but hopefully a surprise in the making.
My grade: 4/5

14. ISRAEL Kobi Marimi / Home
Another divisive voice and presence but less of an instant hit. Israel should not run the risk of repeating a last place for the host country but we are talking right hand side of the board here.
My grade: 2/5

15. NORWAY Keiino / Spirit In The Sky
This happiest of trios storm in at the right time with their higher tempo. Had their their visual appearance been as colourful as the song in itself they could have been in with a chance.
My grade: 2/5

16. UNITED KINGDOM Michael Rice / Bigger Than Us
The song John Lundvik almost went to Melodifestivalen with. Going for "Too Late For Love" was the best career decision ever. Yet another UK flop coming up.
My grade: 1/5

17. ICELAND Hatari / Hatrið mun sigra
It could be that the EBU executives will not breathe for three minutes at this point in the show. If all favourites divide the big points evenly between them, something way less mainstream could sneak up into first place. There could be a sensation waiting around the corner here.
My grade: 4/5

18. ESTONIA Victor Crone / Storm 
The biggest disappointment on Tuesday was this non-song making the cut, meaning it will take up a space for someone who would have deserved it more.
My grade: 0/5

19. BELARUS Zena / Like It
Safe and harmless teeny pop performed by a really likeable young soloist. Should be a bit too formulaic to grab on to the really high points but still remarkably competent for being Belarus.
My grade: 3/5

20. AZERBAIJAN Chingiz / Truth
You can easily tell Azerbaijan is going for gold for the first time since 2013 and this loaded package could get very close to that first place. The only drawback is that the singer and the presentation are more interesting than the actual song.
My grade: 4/5

21. FRANCE Bilal Hassani / Roi
Mixed emotions à go go in the French entry. Bilal is a lovely little presence and his message is terrific. His stage show has made France shoot up the betting lists but the question remains: can a song as weak and generic as this actually win?
My grade: 1/5

22. ITALY Mahmood / Soldi
This is such a fun contest. First we don't see any Arab guys on the LGBT-spectre and suddenly we get in a row. Mahmood is clearly the better of the two, equipped with a fantastic pop composition with bite and attitude. Should be in the top three.
My grade: 5/5

23. SERBIA Nevena / Krona
By now you are surely out of drinks and snacks again. Run to the kitchen now, Nevena has a strong voice and you will hear her all the way. She is good, the song is fairly standard.
My grade: 1/5

24. SWITZERLAND Luca Hänni / She Got Me
Switzerland has been nowhere near a victory for over twenty-five year. Is it time for thunder to strike? It is not impossible but this could also turn out to be just one pop act too many in this lineup.
My grade: 3/5

25. AUSTRALIA Kate Miller-Heidke / Zero Gravity
I have to admit this is a visually stunning number. Had it been matched by a better song, this could be our winner.
My grade: 1/5

26. SPAIN Miki / La venda
The perfect upbeat ending to the running order with the best Spanish entry in many years. If Miki remembers not to jump up and down so much and focus a bit on his singing, this could even be a contender for the lower regions of the top ten.
My grade: 3/5

So how will this end? I still have no idea and I have grown more and more clueless throughout the week. So what do you do when you have no idea? You go back to the last time you thought you knew anything. This is my guess for how the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest will end.

01. Sweden, 02. The Netherlands, 03. Italy, 04. Switzerland, 05. Russia, 06. France, 07. Azerbaijan, 08. Iceland, 09. Australia, 10. Greece, 11. North Macedonia, 12. Spain, 13. Norway, 14. Cypern, 15. Czech republic, 16. Malta, 17. Slovenia, 18. Denmark, 19. Serbia, 20. Belarus, 21. Israel, 22. Albania, 23. San Marino, 24. United Kingdom, 25. Estonia, 26. Germany.

Bring on the voting and then we'll see how this works out. If you want to talk to me and nurse me through it, feel free to do so on Twitter:

Tweet to @TobsonHelsinki

See you on the other side!

ESC 2019, semi 2: Tobson takes a guess

This is the place where I would usually write something about how weak a result six correct out of ten is and how I hope tonight will be better and then some other clever observations about the contest in general. This has however been a long day and I am fighting against some deadlines so I will just quickly list the eight songs that will not make it through tonight.

The only things I really hope for tonight are these two:

I hope the artists realise that tonight is the big thing. Find your energy, find your passion. Project for dear life. Break through the screen and take the viewers by storm. Semi one was far too restrained for my taste.

Then I absolutely hope to get more than six right tonight. Six? That’s pathetic.

These are the eight songs I predict will be out on their ears before bedtime:

IRELAND
I like it and most people will like it but it comes very early on in the show and doesn' leave a single trace. Perhaps the most obvious non-qualifier of this bunch.

LATVIA
Very much like Ireland I appreciate this very much. But who on earth would think this is the best song, the one they have to televote for?

LITHUANIA
They have a lot of friend in this semi that are likely to vote for them. But there is more to life than just maths. This is just too boring.

AUSTRIA
This pains me as Paenda is a rather lovely performer. But someone at the ORF should have advised her to go for something easier to retain on a single listening. "Die Zeit ist einsam 2.0" will live on in my headphones but will have a bumpy ride here.

MOLDOVA
My least favourite entry of all 41. Dull, pointless, void of personality. All of that worked for Estonia on Tuesday though so who knows?

ALBANIA
I'd love to be wrong here. I enjoy the suggestive intro and the impressive chorus but the verse seems to go on forever and from what I hear the staging doesn't do it any favours either.

ROMANIA
Could it be? Can Romania miss the final two years in a row? Personally I think this would deserve a spot in tonight's top ten, but then again - who would take action and actually vote for it?

CROATIA
This is a real wild guess. This could just as well be Norway. Or Denmark. Or North Macedonia. Or even Malta. Or Armenia. But I don't think a Jacques Houdek entry without Jacques Houdek will set the scoreboard on fire.

I have predicted an early exit for Norway throughout the season but now it suddenly feels like the Norwegian brand of crazy is something we need in the final.

If you want my opinions as the second semi final happens, Twitter is the place to be. Feel free to interact with me!

Tweet to @TobsonHelsinki

ESC 2019, semi 1: Tobson takes a guess

These days when I don't really work with Eurovision anymore, I more and more get the feeling that it is sneaking up on me. Is it tonight? You can't be serious? And now I have to make an educated guess who will make it to the final?

I have deliberately not watched any rehearsal footage as I want surprises tonight but I have read what others have written.

Honestly it feels like the amount of analysis or reporting coming out of Tel Aviv has been surprisingly low. Maybe I follow the wrong accounts but several have done little more than to link to already existing rehearsal clips.

I understand everyone has warmed to a couple of songs I have given the cold shoulder until now. It is possible for good performances to swing your perception of an entry - I never thought much of "Shady Lady" until it erupted in front of our eyes in Belgrade - and maybe I will change my mind too.

But there is a limit. Now it sounds like Australia could be a potential winner. Not just tonight but overall on Saturday night. Maybe it is visually stunning by now but it is still a very disappointing piece of songwriting. It will make it to the final but a Saturday night victory...? Really?

The hardest part about this semi is that too many songs feel indifferent. They can be nice and all but some six or seven songs are totally interchangeable and are just as likely to reach the final as something else. I think my prediction could be way off tonight. But here goes.

The seven songs that will leave us tonight are:

MONTENEGRO
A bit of campfire cosiness that nobody will vote for.

FINLAND
Tonight's climate conscience performed by someone who - by the sound of it - doesn't sound too interested in climate change. Not horrible but pointless.

ESTONIA
Polished radio staple with not a single hint of emotion or anything.

GEORGIA
Suddenly this looks good on-screen too and everyone expects it to qualify but Europe is seldom in the mood for bombastic men singing in their own language.

SAN MARINO
I promise to be happy for the smallest state in the running if I am dead wrong here but I suspect this will come across as tired and a tad too ridiculous for most.

BELARUS
Personally I quite like this - thanks for wondering in the chorus - but I think this is a bit too anonymous to be remembered in the end and will get beaten by something inferior.

SERBIA
Fans of Balkan ballads tell me this will do well since it is the only one of its kind. I don't think it matters much as it is mainly a snoozy songwriting exercise.

Out of these seven I feel absolutely sure about three: Estonia, Finland and Montenegro WILL leave us tonight. Otherwise Hungary could miss out instead of Georgia. Belgium just as well as Belarus. Slovenia passes over everyone's head and Serbia qualifies. And Portugal could prove just too demanding in the end and make an early exit.

In short - I have no idea. But that will make for excellent entertainment tonight.

I will hang out on Twitter during the broadcast - feel free to interact with me.

Tweet to @TobsonHelsinki

Tobson's Big ESC 2019 review, part 7

Being pre-qualified for the final is a high price to pay for the big five. At least many people have said - since the inauguration of the semi final in 2004 - that being heard just the once will be a huge disadvantage for the countries who pay the most to participate.

However, the overwhelming majority of the viewers see and hear all entries for the first time on Saturday night. Possibly they have watched the semi final with their own entry but many will give the other semi final - where they can't even vote - a miss.

The lack of success for the Big Five largely comes down to what we all knew anyway. Several of these broadcasters have shown a real lack of commitment to the contest. Some of them want to make a splash but seem to genuinely lack an understanding of what kind of entry would give a strong result.

In this last part of my review, let's have a look at the six pre-qualified countries. If you want to read about the semi finalists, you will find them here in part one, two, three, four, five and six.


FRANCE
Bilal Hassani / Roi

France taking the opportunity to send a young genderqueer and openly gay muslim to the final in Tel Aviv is close to a stroke of genius. The right to be yourself and identify the way you wish belongs to everyone, nicely underlined by the performer as well as the lyrics. The only thing that is a real shame is that the actual song isn't better. Madame Monsieur made an impression last year but now they just threw something together in a hurry and that is never a good idea. Also - who is going to break it to the French that this kind of blending languages only sounds half-cooked and doesn't work?

Potential winner:
No. I really want to like this but my interest is fading long before we even get to the chorus.

My grade: 1/5


GERMANY
S!sters / Sister

Read this followingsentence out loud to yourself: This song was rejected by Switzerland so Germany picked it up and entered it in their national final instead. Does that sound like a particularly good idea to you? This sounds just like the kind of songwriting exercise the Swiss have entered far too many times in the last decade. There is nothing really wrong with it but it is far from engaging and doesn't leave much of an impression once it is over. Something about the miaowing chorus also really annoys me.

Potential winner:
No, but another potential last place. Germany's third in five years, if so. It is clearly time for German tv to shake up the team in charge of their national finals. Again.

My grade: 1/5


ITALY
Mahmood / Soldi

Italy has done it again and enters yet another bold, original song that challenges the whole idea and concept of what a eurovision entry could be. Mahmood is another exquisite performer - tiptoeing the borderland between of arrogance and sensibility in his stage persona - and the song is a gripping piece of drama about young boys and absent fathers. The single best thing about Italy using the Sanremo festival to select their ESC entrants is that we keep getting contemporary and challenging state of the art material, designed to win a song contest - just not the ESC.

Potential winner:
Yes. It must be. But for some reason the so called expert juries have held Italy down recently. Last year the juries had Italy in a ridiculously low 17th place. If the juries shape up even a little, then Rome 2020 could be a real possibility.

My grade: 5/5


SPAIN
Miki / La venda

Using the most popular talent show your country has ever seen in order to select your ESC entrant could be a smart move but if you have no idea what kind of song your newly found talent should perform, no popularity on home ground will mean anything at all in the end. Spain has sent their Operación Triunfo stars off to Europe with pretty mediocre songs (with the obvious exception of Beth, who should have done a lot better) but young Miki has fared at least a bit better. Equipped with a mixture of ska and Catalonian rumba, at least "La venda" provides a bit of temper and speed for the final.

Potential winner:
No, far from. But on a very good day, Miki could have a chance to place close to the top ten.

My grade: 3/5


UNITED KINGDOM
Michael Rice / Bigger Than Us

If selecting a reject from Switzerland is an unusual move, opting for Swedish leftovers is a lot more common. (Did Germany just confuse Sweden and Switzerland? An easy mistake to make.) This is the song John Lundvik wanted to enter Melodifestivalen with before being persuaded into going for "Too Late For Love" instead. You can clearly tell these two songs grew on the same tree as they share a very similar gospel vibe, but where Sweden's entry is elegant and elaborated, this is just generic. Michael Rice can sing - if you like his vibrato or not comes down to personal taste, I suppose - but was totally lost on stage and came across as pretty inexperienced in the national final.

Potential winner:
No. But if someone instructs the singer where the cameras are and what they do, the UK should at least avoid the very bottom placings this time around.

My grade: 2/5


14 ISRAEL
Kobi Marimi / Home

Putting on a Eurovision Song Contest is hard work and you can sometimes tell in the approach of the host nation how they would prefer not to do it twice in a row. You already won, you already have everyone's attention. You can sit back and just enjoy the ride and content yourself with a dignified place mid-table. At first I thought Israel aimed a lot lower than that with this ballad. How can you even describe it? Pretentious, I think, is the best word. Sung by a very dramatic singing actor. I dismissed it completely until it started growing on me and now the hook in the chorus won't leave me alone. Like it or dislike, but this song sure has something.

Potential winner:
No, whatever it has it doesn't extend that far. But it could end up a bit higher than most people expect.

My grade: 2/5


If you want to agree or disagree with me, please leave a comment or send me a tweet. All the preview clips can be seen here.

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Tobson's Big ESC 2019 review, part 6

A few years into the new system of semi finals, the fandom established a number of "truths" - one of these being that there are a number of countries that can't possibly fail in a semi final.

In some cases because they have a large cultural sphere with neighbours voting for them, in some cases because they have a large and active diaspora voting for them, in some cases because they have loads of money and no morals and gladly pay their way into a better result. In some cases, all three of the above combined.

The first major blow to this theory came in 2011 as both Armenia and Turkey bombed in the same semi in Düsseldorf and last year in Lisbon was a major event as three of the "eternal qualifiers" - Azerbaijan, Romania and Russia - all missed the grand final.

The only countries never to have lost out in a semi final are Ukraine (not participating this year) and Australia. Nobody's safe anymore.

This blog post includes the final six semi finalists of 2019. If you want to read about the other songs competing in the 2019 semi finals you will find them here in part one, two, three, four and five.


13 RUSSIA
Sergey Lazarev / Scream

I was both surprised and a bit puzzled when I heard Sergey's comeback entry for the first time. Far from the kitsch fest I had feared and expected, this is a mature if somewhat overly bombastic entry that suits his voice well. Good but in no way a potential winner, not even for Russia. Only now all reports suggests that the big wallet has been hoisted up and that the stage show could be even more over the top than the last time around and suddenly I just feel exhausted and slightly nauseated. All that high-tech hocus pocus wrecks more than it adds and I wonder when people will learn?

Qualifier:
Yes, of course. Russia is back in the game and when they are motivated, nothing can stop them in the semi.

My grade: 3/5


14 ALBANIA
Jonida Maliqi / Ktheju tokës

Writing songs about topical themes is a difficult path to tread. There is always a serious risk that you will end up giving the impression you are trying to profit from the misfortune of others rather than being a voice of empathy and reason. Albania manages this balance act rather brilliantly and by singing about refugees of their own - people who left their country during the Kosovo war - they also manage to make their package inclusive and relevant to everyone.

Qualifier:
Yes, I think and hope so. It has a sound that is different enough to set it apart from other songs in the lineup and Jonida is an excellent performer too.

My grade: 3/5


15 NORWAY
KEiiNO / Spirit In The Sky

This happy trio is blending almost every ingredient in the kitchen into a big bowl and the ESC fans love it. There is a bit of joik and a bit of drumming and a chorus we've heard before somewhere (not sure this is the song Saara Aalto will televote for), all of which delivered with far bigger smiles than the lyrics call for. Right out of Melodifestivalen 2005 or so. Add a performance like the one in the national final which was frankly all over the place and you'll see why I'm having doubts.

Qualifier:
I'm not so sure. I personally like it - at least in its studio version - but is "Vrag naj vzame" meets "Sámiid ædnan" really what will get the masses going? I'm leaning towards a no here.

My grade: 3/5


16 THE NETHERLANDS
Duncan Laurence / Arcade

The Netherlands scored four victories in the first twenty years of the ESC and then their well ran dry. Now the big question is whether this is the time when their fortunes get reversed? It could very well be. Suddenly they find themselves with a shining little pop pearl with a big emotional chorus and a very sensitive and attractive performer. Something that could very well ride high in the charts. The only thing that stops me from thinking this is an outright winner is that it doesn't feel like the sort of song that would win the Eurovision Song Contest. Does it?

Qualifier:
Yes, absolutely. One of perhaps four or five potential winners. Sometimes I'm wrong too.

My grade: 4/5


17 NORTH MACEDONIA
Tamara / Proud

Ten years after the juries let her down in Belgrade, Tamara is back to clear her name. It is not entirely out of the question. Through the years, North Macedonia has emerged as one of the countries - perhaps the country - most likely to ruin their own chance by awful choice regarding styling, outfits, staging and so on. This very stripped-down song doesn't really allow any outrageous behaviour on stage and puts full focus on the singing.

Qualifier:
Borderline. The song is a brave attempt but possibly not interesting enough in its own right. If Tamara sings her heart out while hitting the right notes, it could go all the way but I suspect North Macedonia will be out. For the seventh consecutive year.

My grade: 2/5


18 AZERBAIJAN
Chingiz / Truth

My first reaction to the Azerbaijani entry was that it didn't have a single drop of personality. Nicely produced, well sung, sounded right but totally anonymous. I have warmed to it since, mainly thanks to the enchanting Chingiz who manages to fill it up with presence and, I suppose, sex appeal. He is the asset carrying this entry on his broad shoulders but lately personalities have not done Azerbaijan a lot of good.

Qualifier:
Yes. Last year was a hiccup. Chingiz will sail into the final on charm alone and will end up somewhere around 14th place there.

My grade: 3/5


If you want to agree or disagree with me, please leave a comment or send me a tweet. All the preview clips can be seen here.

Tweet to @TobsonHelsinki