Overall the guessing game went fairly well on Tuesday. I lost one of my biggest favourites in Croatia but got nine out of ten finalists correct. That was nice. Let's see if we get even close in the second semi.
First of all, it is easy to point out the biggest loser of this semi as Iceland has withdrawn from performing live due to one of the band members testing positive for Covid. What a disappointing ending to the adventure for the entire team. I think Iceland will qualify for Saturday but they won't be able to perform then either. Imagine winning but not being there to receive your trophy? Heart-breaking.
Just like in the first semi, there are some songs that feel like obvious non-qualifiers. Not necessarily because they are bad but because they seem unlikely to be anyone's big favourite. Then some others fluctuate in some sort of danger zone and will need the millimetres on their side to go through.
ESTONIA and LATVIA are most likely to drop out - the first is too eager to please and the other wants too badly to be edgy at the expense of any real tune. Lithuania will represent the Baltics in final.
SAN MARINO managed to get their famous rapper into frame and that probably puts them firmly in the final. It is probably also the kiss of death for CZECH REPULIC, tapping into a similar musical pool for votes. If it was down to the song, I would clearly reverse the two.
AUSTRIA and PORTUGAL both aim for the musician vote, the one that Belgium supposedly got in the first semi. Both could possibly get away with it but I still think neither song is strong enough to do the trick. GEORGIA is also a very sweet effort that could sway musicians on the jury and - hey presto! - there are three songs to divide the musician vote.
MOLDOVA and SERBIA are both going for the party vote and Hurricane clearly has the upper hand there. Reports have suggested Moldova hasn't impressed in rehearsals, but it still is a fun song. POLAND wants to be a fun song too, but their old-boy band approach isn't much by any standard.
GREECE is very good at going through and they have a strong chorus as well as a green screen. But they are also possibly eclipsed by Serbia.
And then there is DENMARK. One of my two personal favourites tonight (SWITZERLAND is more than safe, though) and the first Danish entry I care for in almost two decades. It would be a real shame if their first relevant entry - in the sense that it would mean anything to anyone outside of the context of the ESC - got thrown out and it would definitely teach the Danish viewers the wrong lesson.
Since I clearly have no idea what I am doing, I will go out on a limb and predict using a fair share of wishful thinking. I'd rather predict the way I want it to be and stand there corrected in the end.
Tonight we will lose: Estonia, Czech republic, Austria, Poland, Georgia, Portugal and Latvia.
To the final: San Marino, Greece, Moldova, Iceland, Serbia, Albania, Bulgaria, Finland, Switzerland and Denmark. (Please please pleeease let me be right about Denmark.)
I'll spend the evening on Twitter, please make me feel better if my predictions fall through.Follow @TobsonHelsinki