Tobson's Big ESC 2019 review, part 6

A few years into the new system of semi finals, the fandom established a number of "truths" - one of these being that there are a number of countries that can't possibly fail in a semi final.

In some cases because they have a large cultural sphere with neighbours voting for them, in some cases because they have a large and active diaspora voting for them, in some cases because they have loads of money and no morals and gladly pay their way into a better result. In some cases, all three of the above combined.

The first major blow to this theory came in 2011 as both Armenia and Turkey bombed in the same semi in Düsseldorf and last year in Lisbon was a major event as three of the "eternal qualifiers" - Azerbaijan, Romania and Russia - all missed the grand final.

The only countries never to have lost out in a semi final are Ukraine (not participating this year) and Australia. Nobody's safe anymore.

This blog post includes the final six semi finalists of 2019. If you want to read about the other songs competing in the 2019 semi finals you will find them here in part one, two, three, four and five.


13 RUSSIA
Sergey Lazarev / Scream

I was both surprised and a bit puzzled when I heard Sergey's comeback entry for the first time. Far from the kitsch fest I had feared and expected, this is a mature if somewhat overly bombastic entry that suits his voice well. Good but in no way a potential winner, not even for Russia. Only now all reports suggests that the big wallet has been hoisted up and that the stage show could be even more over the top than the last time around and suddenly I just feel exhausted and slightly nauseated. All that high-tech hocus pocus wrecks more than it adds and I wonder when people will learn?

Qualifier:
Yes, of course. Russia is back in the game and when they are motivated, nothing can stop them in the semi.

My grade: 3/5


14 ALBANIA
Jonida Maliqi / Ktheju tokës

Writing songs about topical themes is a difficult path to tread. There is always a serious risk that you will end up giving the impression you are trying to profit from the misfortune of others rather than being a voice of empathy and reason. Albania manages this balance act rather brilliantly and by singing about refugees of their own - people who left their country during the Kosovo war - they also manage to make their package inclusive and relevant to everyone.

Qualifier:
Yes, I think and hope so. It has a sound that is different enough to set it apart from other songs in the lineup and Jonida is an excellent performer too.

My grade: 3/5


15 NORWAY
KEiiNO / Spirit In The Sky

This happy trio is blending almost every ingredient in the kitchen into a big bowl and the ESC fans love it. There is a bit of joik and a bit of drumming and a chorus we've heard before somewhere (not sure this is the song Saara Aalto will televote for), all of which delivered with far bigger smiles than the lyrics call for. Right out of Melodifestivalen 2005 or so. Add a performance like the one in the national final which was frankly all over the place and you'll see why I'm having doubts.

Qualifier:
I'm not so sure. I personally like it - at least in its studio version - but is "Vrag naj vzame" meets "Sámiid ædnan" really what will get the masses going? I'm leaning towards a no here.

My grade: 3/5


16 THE NETHERLANDS
Duncan Laurence / Arcade

The Netherlands scored four victories in the first twenty years of the ESC and then their well ran dry. Now the big question is whether this is the time when their fortunes get reversed? It could very well be. Suddenly they find themselves with a shining little pop pearl with a big emotional chorus and a very sensitive and attractive performer. Something that could very well ride high in the charts. The only thing that stops me from thinking this is an outright winner is that it doesn't feel like the sort of song that would win the Eurovision Song Contest. Does it?

Qualifier:
Yes, absolutely. One of perhaps four or five potential winners. Sometimes I'm wrong too.

My grade: 4/5


17 NORTH MACEDONIA
Tamara / Proud

Ten years after the juries let her down in Belgrade, Tamara is back to clear her name. It is not entirely out of the question. Through the years, North Macedonia has emerged as one of the countries - perhaps the country - most likely to ruin their own chance by awful choice regarding styling, outfits, staging and so on. This very stripped-down song doesn't really allow any outrageous behaviour on stage and puts full focus on the singing.

Qualifier:
Borderline. The song is a brave attempt but possibly not interesting enough in its own right. If Tamara sings her heart out while hitting the right notes, it could go all the way but I suspect North Macedonia will be out. For the seventh consecutive year.

My grade: 2/5


18 AZERBAIJAN
Chingiz / Truth

My first reaction to the Azerbaijani entry was that it didn't have a single drop of personality. Nicely produced, well sung, sounded right but totally anonymous. I have warmed to it since, mainly thanks to the enchanting Chingiz who manages to fill it up with presence and, I suppose, sex appeal. He is the asset carrying this entry on his broad shoulders but lately personalities have not done Azerbaijan a lot of good.

Qualifier:
Yes. Last year was a hiccup. Chingiz will sail into the final on charm alone and will end up somewhere around 14th place there.

My grade: 3/5


If you want to agree or disagree with me, please leave a comment or send me a tweet. All the preview clips can be seen here.

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Tobson's Big ESC 2018 review, part 3

Portugal has shown a great deal of bravery in their choices as host nation for the 2018 Eurovision Song Contest. Mainly they have gone for a more organic and less technological approach in the stage design, leaving out the almost compulsory LED screens that have been popular but not always used in the best possible way.

These decisions go very well with the Portuguese winner of last year and it seems that very entry has inspired quite a few of this year's entries. There are much more songs with some sort of message or conviction and fewer of the professional but generic songs we had a few too many of lately. Hopefully the songs and the stage will come together beautifully come May.

Semi 2 is admittedly weaker but also harder to predict. Which is fun in a way. On to the first nine songs in the lineup:

01. NORWAY
Alexander Rybak / That's How You Write A Song

You can say a lot of things about Alexander Rybak but he sure is no coward. No former winner has taken part in the international final since Dana International failed to progress from the semi final in 2011 and even before that it was hard times for former champions. Alexander also has the guts to enter a song that large portions of the ESC fandom absolutely abhor. Many people would like to see him fail, that is the worst kept secret of the year.

Qualifier:
But of course. Yes. This will be bang in the final and get a very good position there as well. What are people thinking? Rybak has many fans and this is also a fun and playful song. A potential winner, even.

My grade: 4/5

02. ROMANIA
The Humans / Goodbye

Romania has never failed to reach the final. This running order suggests there will be a first time for everything. This is a pretty solid soft rock effort - Heart meets a young Bonnie Tyler - with a neat chorus and a bit of a too long build-up for its own good. The sequenced running order is supposed to put every competing song in the best possible light and position but it feels more like the producer decided to throw Romania under the bus here.

Qualifier:
Borderline. Romania qualified with weaker songs than this in the past.

My grade: 2/5

03. SERBIA
Sanja Ilić & Balkanika / Nova deca

Serbia is trying to turn back the clock to a time where the Balkan countries happily mixed folk music with more contemporary pop rhythms to great effect. It's nice to meet up with this genre again but it is a shame the actual song is not stronger than this. The performance is unfocused and confusing and the song never takes off properly.

Qualifier:

No, unless they manage to reinvent themselves properly and better the performance a great deal. And then the song is still pretty weak.

My grade: 2/5

04. SAN MARINO

Jessika feat Jenifer Brening / Who We Are

San Marino seemed to possibly be on some sort of right way with their messy national final until the whole process turned out to be about who could put in more money than the others. Music had very little to do with anything in the end, which the entry itself demonstrates in a very efficient way. It stays bland until the moment Jenifer brings her messy rap into the picture and makes the whole package implode.

Qualifier:

No. Not in a reasonable world anyway. But this is a semi where almost any song could emerge as a surprise qualifier.

My grade: 1/5

05. DENMARK

Rasmussen / Higher Ground

Ten years ago Latvia somehow managed to make it into the final with a group of people ridiculously dresses up as pirates. Perhaps as a tribute to the Pirates of the Sea, Denmark selected another piece of masquerade attributes and sent in a troupe of various vikings in desperate need of credibility as well as hair conditioner. There's a decent little chorus in here somewhere but not enough to find mercy in my book.

Qualifier:

Borderline. People often tend to like Danish entries even when I find them lacklustre, so I wouldn't be surprised if it is a yes for this one.

My grade: 1/5

06. RUSSIA

Julia Samoylova / I Won't Break

Same suspense scenario as with Romania: would it actually be possible for Russia not to qualify? What we have is a decent but not spectacular entry with a good hook but a singer that seems to be totally incapable of delivering any of the singing required. This will be three very interesting minutes come Lisbon.

Qualifier:

Borderline. Strong support from a number of friendly countries but most other countries would have been discounted at once with an entry like this.

My grade: 1/5

07. MOLDOVA

DoReDos / My Lucky Day

After a bunch of slower mid tempo entries with little sparkle or nerve, Moldova rolls onto the stage like a hysterical avalanche with their bouncy and aggressively positive sunshine of a song. How could you not love this? How could anyone resist? So much kitsch forced into a confined space you expect the whole thing to blow up at some point.

Qualifier:

Yes. People will laugh and love this. But I would never had guessed these lyrics were written by a native English speaker.

My grade: 3/5

08. NETHERLANDS

Waylon / Outlaw in 'em

Just like Alexander Rybak is Eurovision Royalty after his second place as part of The Common Linnets in 2014. It is pretty cool of him to enter something so different from his former entry as well. Possibly he bit off a bit more than he can chew as the song really aspires to have way broader shoulders than Waylon himself can pull off. 

Qualifier:

Yes, most probably. Not sure how well it will fare in the final but at least it will be there.

My grade: 2/5

09. AUSTRALIA

Jessica Mauboy / We Got Love

One of the big reasons for Australia to be present in the contest is supposedly to show the UK how easy it could be to send in really convincing and powerful entries if you just make an effort. That's nice - if a bit patronising - but Australia is not really living up to that if so. Whatever sort of edge I expected them to have is more and more absent for every year. Jessica is a good performer but this pop song is surprisingly unspectacular. Good but tame. If Australia is to stay put I expect quite a lot more from them.

Qualifier:

Yes. Juries love Australia. We noticed that extra clearly last year.

My grade: 3/5

This is the third part of my 2018 review, why not check out part one and part two as well?

Tobson's Big ESC 2017 Review, part 6

The second semi is really too close to call this year and the rehearsals and final live performances will be crucial when it comes to who will qualify or not. I think that's something we say every year, but it is more true than ever now as so many of the songs are really similar in style and even in quality.

Something like six qualifiers feel solid while the final four places would be up for grabs and then the final details will be decisive. Anything that would make anyone stand out will be most important. Even standing out in a bad way could be good.

05. ROMANIA
Ilinca feat Alex Florea / Yodel It!

Talent show yodeller Ilinca teamed up with aspiring rock star Alex in this schlager meets rap meets Heidi on a mountain top meets tons of cheese meets pure madness. It could be Alex is throwing away his chances to ever be perceived as credible again but the gamble could be worth it. This breathtakingly wacky entry is precisely what the ESC needs this year: someone who is distinctive and utterly bonkers at the same time. Nobody will forget Romania this time around, that is more than sure.

Qualifier:
Yes. Not only because Romania is yet to fail in a semi final but also because this manages to be awful and adorable at the same time in a pretty irresistible way.

My grade: 4/5



Ilinca feat Alex Florea / Yodel It! (Romania 2017 preview)

06. NETHERLANDS
OG3ENE / Lights and Shadows

It's not what I would have expected, but maybe the world will wake up one morning to find they miss Wilson Philips so much they need a revival and will celebrate anything that resembles the original group at all. If that happens, these sisters will go far and knock the rest of the competition out. If not, they will struggle. This entry showcases a lot of lovely harmonies but fails big time in the songwriting department. In short, there is no song going on here and that is a problem in a song contest.

Qualifier:
No. Too weak and too meek. And isn't it time for the Dutch to ditch country music and come up with something new?

My grade: 1/5



OG3ENE / Lights and Shadows (Netherlands 2017 preview)

07. HUNGARY
Joci Pápai / Origo

Deep down, this is another one of the many entries this year that is tailor-made to suit the airwaves. It is slick and it is contemporary, but it lacks a bit of build-up and has very little of a climax anywhere. Luckily for Joci, he has his very ethnic sound that sets him apart from the others. He is also the Nano-type of this lineup - someone whose back story helps him to stand out and be remembered - but it is not an easy song to keep interesting for three minutes on a stage.

Qualifier:
Yes. It should be distinctive enough to beat some of the more generic contenders, but how far will it carry in the final?

My grade: 3/5



Joci Pápai / Origo (Hungary 2017 preview)

08. DENMARK
Anja / Where I Am

I wasn't that impressed at first, but Anja is doing a good job vocally and this chorus has been growing. This is easily the best Danish entry for me in many, many years but then again it doesn't mean it lot. Denmark has developed a passion for songs that are easy and polished, void of personality and that leave no trace. We are still moving in this territory and as always I am left wondering if there is any kind of more demanding music being made in Denmark? Some noisy rock? Experimental hardcore trance? Punk? And could we please have a bit of it at the ESC?

Qualifier:
Borderline. Another one of those that are totally impossible to call before you know how all countries perform on stage. This could as easily land in 7th place as in 13th.

My grade: 3/5



Anja / Where I Am (Denmark 2017 preview)

Semi 1: 06 Netherlands / Slow Down

The Dutch really do love a bit of country-flavoured pop, don't they? There has been so much slide guitar pouring out of that place lately you'd start wondering if Nashville is really located somewhere close to Hilversum.

Douwe Bob has the advantage of standing out sound-wise in this semi. Just like Finland, completely different production values have coloured this recording and it feels refreshing among all the wannabe radio hits.

The lad is likeable and the song has a vibe of its own, but the whole thing would have benefited from some sort of development. As it is, it just goes on and on without much of a climax anywhere.

Qualifier:
Yes. Borderline, but yes. I think this is original enough to get noticed by quite a few viewers and jurors alike.

My grade: 3/5



Douwe Bob / Slow Down (Netherlands 2016 preview clip)

December 23: Nurlaila

What is the worst kind of bad luck you can have at your national final? Is it perhaps the musical ketchup effect? First comes nothing, then nothing, then nothing and then all at once. And then the bottle is empty.

The Netherlands had had some problems finding really solid entries after their 1993 smash "Vrede" but put great effort into their 1998 final and found themselves with not just one but two fantastic entries.

I think they made the right choice, sending Edsilia off to Birmingham with the remarkable "Hemel en aarde" which secured the best Dutch showing since 1975. But Nurlaila would have been an equally strong choice.

Sounding like a Broadway musical showstopper, "Alsof je bij me bent" was written by John Ewbank who had previously taken part himself in the 1990 Dutch final as part of Shift.

Only a few years later, the Dutch would lose their grip on Eurovision totally and fail to reach the finals on eight consecutive occasions. Too bad they couldn't save Nurlaila for later and bring her out instead of that seemingly endless string of weak entries. That would have been something.



Nurlaila / Alsof je bij me bent (Netherlands NF 1998)

December 9: Shift

Being bonkers is an underrated quality at the ESC. That breathtaking mix of being bouncy and upbeat and cheerful and very much in the face of audiences.

This little gem from the 1990 Dutch final ticks every single one of these boxes and a few more. Not only does it come in a tempestuous orchestral arrangement - it also has the widest smiles you ever saw and some of the most ridiculous dancing ever known to mankind.

Most adults wouldn't dance like that in public unless they were dangerously intoxicated but I wish more people would. And I wish Shift would have made it to Zagreb instead of Maywood's nice but not too exciting ballad.



Shift / Helemaal (Netherlands NF 1990)

Semi 1: 04 Netherlands

It seems to me that many people are very keen to like the Dutch entries after they finally became successful again after many years of consecutive semi final failures. I'm the same, I've been listening with very forgiving ears, really wanting to like this one.

I do like this one. It's a breezy and pleasant little song, well sung and with an easily retainable hook.

But I can't shake the feeling that the Dutch really expected us to like whatever they served us this time around, making it rather easy for themselves. The song is good but never lives up to its full potential. Under-produced and under-developed.

A snappier arrangement could have made a big difference, now it feels like it isn't progressing much or building up to anything special. The chorus is good but very repetitive and leaves poor Trijntje with pretty little to work with.

In a parallel universe - like on the radio - this isn't a problem at all. Instead it makes a song easy to fit into a playlist, you can fade up or fade out at any point and it will suit most kinds of programming. At Eurovision you have exactly three minutes to impress people and that would be easier with a more outstanding song.

Qualifier:
Borderline. I would want to see it in the final, but it could easily end up in 12th place with some medium points from here and there, without being anyone's favourite.

Grade: 3/5



Trijntje Oosterhuis - Walk Along (Netherlands 2015)

Nobody's favourite but mine, part 4

Are you ready, folks? Here comes a fourth selection of songs I really liked through the years even though I have a nagging feeling I could be the only one. The former three episodes suggest that I am not alone at all, which leads me nicely onto the first song of the bunch.



Patricia Kraus - No estás solo (Spain 1987)

I never understood why anyone wouldn't like this one. It's original, energetic and pretty modern for it's time, and Patricia could be one of the coolest females ever. She is wearing a leather corset and enough rouge to suggest that she fell headlong onto the makeup-table only seconds before she had to enter the stage, still manage to look like that is the most natural thing ever.

It does take forever until she gets to a chorus but that's not the end of the world, is it? Clearly worth more than the ten points it had to content itself with.



Helen & Joseph - L-Imhabba (Malta 1972)

Malta had a tough start in Eurovision - for their first two entries they sang in their native tongue and ended in last place on both occasions. I can sort of see what the juries meant in 1971 but this adorable little gem would have deserved to be showered in points. The line where they sing about freaks, Hell's Angels and hippies is worth a top ten placing alone. Not to mention the more than impressive body language of the conductor during the instrumental break. And extra points for fashion, of course.



Park Café - Monsieur (Luxembourg 1989)

For the last few years that Luxembourg were in the contest they more seldom commissioned potential hit songs from French record labels - or did nobody want to provide them anymore? - and turned to local talent instead, mostly with pretty moderate success. Park Café entered something as unusual as a song inspired by a recent hit movie - "Who Framed Roger Rabbit?" - and provided a far more jazz inspired sound than the audience was used to and the juries remained largely unimpressed.



Telex - Eurovision (Belgium 1980)

Belgium is clearly one of those nutty countries that you just don't know what to expect from. When you least expect it they will do something really crazy and unexpected and most of Europe will sit there with their jaws hanging between their legs, not knowing what hit them.

For some reason, synthesiser pioneers Telex - Belgium's own Kraftwerk but with a sense of humour - decide to throw themselves into competition with a song about the contest in question and a pronounced desire not to be understood and go through the voting without a single point. The stunt failed, the Belgians managed to collect a minor number of points and even avoided the last place, and the trio managed to thoroughly confuse their own fans in the process. What remains is a cute little masterpiece that is sure to make you smile. And when you're done smiling, check out their cover versions of Ça plane pour moi, Twist à Saint-Tropez or Rock Around The Clock. Genius!



Mrs Einstein - Niemand heeft nog tijd (Netherlands 1997)

When Dutch tv selected these feisty females internally they were presented like a group that were sure to rock the boat in a big way in Dublin. They sort of did. Not only were they nicknamed "Old Spice" - which I think was pretty witty - but most people wouldn't believe their ears. A full-tempo rip-off of Paul McCartney's Bond theme Live And Let Die that would leave people out of breath as well as in serious doubt of what the Dutch were thinking.

Only I really, really like it. I think it is fun and energetic and far superior to most entries the Dutch sent in during those eight long years they constantly failed to qualify. Old Spice for the win!

Well, isn't that a lovely outfit?

Ever since I was a very young Tobson, I've been totally fascinated by this Eurovision Song Contest in so many different ways. It seems I'm never running out of new angles that make me love this show even more.

I like it for the uniting factor - one of few things that brings all of Europe together for a mutual activity. I like it for the music, obviously. Few things cheer me up like a good eurovision entry. And I love it for the positive political dimension, how it brings people closer and showcases new ideas and thoughts even to corners of the world where the governments would prefer as little enlightenment as possible.

But I also love the show elements, of course. And I'm never averse to a great outfit. So here - for your entertainment as you wait for this year's extravaganza to take off - I collected a non-exhaustive list of favourite outfits through the years.



Anne Karine Strøm - Mata Hari (Norway 1976)

What could be better than a little bit of gold? The correct answer must be: a whole lot of gold, preferably from head to toe. If you can match it with the biggest sunglasses you could possibly wear before your neck goes snap, then it's all for the better. Wonderful Anne Karine entered eurovision history as the only solo performer to end in last place twice - a complete disgrace.



Linda - No goodbyes (Netherlands 2000)

Must be so awkward when you check your calendar and realised you double booked and have to perform at Eurovision that very day you promised to go camping with your dancers? Linda went for a creative solution and decided to hit two birds with one stone and do both things at the same time. The best "look-what-I-hid-under-my-dress"-effect ever.



Youddiph - Vechni strannik (Russia 1994)

I love this creative red dress that allows the singer to change her appearance completely several times throughout her performance only by making some simple, tasteful movements. Understated, elegant and sophisticated.



Rita - Shara barechovot (Israel 1990)

I must admit to being a lover of colour and I think the smart black dress is just about the most boring option anyone could come up with on a eurovision stage. Black is safe and uncreative and I think the large audience watching you deserve more of an effort than that. But then there are the little black numbers you just can't refuse. Rita looks absolutely stunning and captivating. Mind you, she could probably wrap a towel or an old circus tent around her and still look stunning, but she really works this one to perfection. 18th place? Well done, juries.



Salomé - Vivo cantando (Spain 1969)

I never had the chance to ask her in person, but I am assuming that Salomé shares my point of view that  a stage outfit is something you design and craft specifically, not something you go out and buy in a shop. I'd like to see the shop selling this particular piece. Full of tassels and tiny stones - to weigh the tassels down and give them a life of their own - it weighs five kilos and would probably not qualify as a comfortable garment on any occasion. And that sort of makes it perfect for the stage.

Semi 1: 14 Netherlands

After many years of mainly rather indifferent entries, how likely is it that thunder will strike two years in a row and the Dutch entry will feel like a contender? I have no idea how likely it really is, all I know is that it happened.



The Common Linnets - Calm After The Storm (Netherlands 2014)

Last year - when Anouk ended the seemingly eternal walk through the desert the Dutch had endured in this contest - it felt like Birds wasn't just a great song. It felt like it was an important song that managed to incorporate a style and a delicacy that has been rare at Eurovision, proving it could live and thrive there.

The Dutch stay on that very track also this year with a song that could seem like it was almost designed to crash and burn: slow and thoughtful in a competition where glitter and grand gestures usually work better. No song with a country-western-flavour ever did well before.

But Ilse and Waylon are not just anybody. They deliver, full of restrained intensity, letting their song unfold into a beautiful little flower. Showing - again - that there is room for any kind of music at the ESC as long as it is done in style.

Qualifier: Yes. It must. Or I lose faith in the european audience forever.

My grade: 4/5

Eurovision and Wikipedia

Last night I heard the news that the first ever participant to grace a Eurovision stage - Jetty Paerl of the Netherlands - had passed away at the respectable age of 92. I decided to check her up on Wikipedia - as I knew little about her other achievements - and stumbled across another one of these strangely inaccurate "facts" that often surround the Eurovision Song Contest.

Wikipedia screen capture

You can see for yourselves, it bluntly states that this first Eurovision was only broadcast on radio and not on television. A small thing in this large universe, perhaps, but I still believe encyclopedias should be correct. Otherwise I could just as well write my own.

There seems to be a fraction of the eurovision fanbase so desperate to participate and contribute that they don't mind inventing things or, perhaps, just jump to conclusions and never take a second to doubt (or verify) what they came up with.

Even more strange is the fact that the inaccuracies often remain without being corrected or removed. I think if somebody wrote on Wikipedia that the moon is made of cheese or that Ireland is mainly inhabited by elves, it would be corrected rather soon.

The real problem is that the longer an inaccuracy is left to linger, the more people will believe it. Finally it will become a "truth". Like Liechtenstein 1969, for instance.

In 1969, French record label released an EP including the song "Un beau matin", a parody of the typical eurosongs of its time, and the cover stated the song to be the entry of Liechtenstein for the 1969 Eurovision Song Contest. Just as a joke. To make sure nobody took it seriously.



Vetty - Un beau matin

Still today, disturbingly often, you see serious texts claim that Liechtenstein really intended to take part in Madrid but for unknown reasons never appeared.

This is just one of the many stories that seem impossible to get rid of. Like dandelions they keep popping up everywhere, reappearing shortly after you think you extinguished them.

Life would be so much easier if people checked their sources and tried to verify their facts a little bit better. Until then, we all have to keep our heads calm and not believe everything we read.

Not even on Wikipedia.

2013 prediction: How wrong was I?

Yesterday I had a stab at predicting the outcome of the Eurovision final in Malmö and looking back on it now, I realise I wasn't completely wrong.

Out of 26 countries, 14 placed according to my prediction. Another five found themselves only one placing away from what I predicted. I can live with that. Then there were some spectacular miscalculations, of course.

FRANCE - I liked Amandine's raw and tempestuous performance, but this kind of song is hard to sell to a mainstream audience. I appreciate when people try to break out of the most common formats, but maybe there are limits as to how far you can go without putting people off.

FINLAND - Despite all the publicity and a very energetic appearance, Finland only scored a mere 13 points. None of which from its neighbour countries. Keeping the masses entertained does not automatically mean they will reward you with points.

GERMANY - I felt like I ruined the party for everyone yesterday not thinking Cascada had a chance of surpassing fourth place. In retrospect, my prediction was almost hysterically over-optimistic. Probably the miscalculation of the year.

GEORGIA - The G:son-penned love ballad failed to set the scoreboard on fire this time. While thinking the song and performance deserved more, I'm relieved the cheap trick didn't work out.

MALTA - I didn't think Gianluca would hit home the way he did but I was happy to be wrong. For a while, when he was not too far behind the top scorers, I secretly hoped for Malta to be the unexpected twist that would suddenly collect a bunch of twelvepointers and sail to victory.

IRELAND - I did get a bad feeling during Ryan's performance and thought to myself that this could be the one generic modern pop song too many for the audience, but I never in a million years thought this one would be left in last place. Completely undeserved.

DENMARK - Of course I saw the Danish song as a potential winner, but this is the second year that the biggest favourite wins by quite a comfortable margin. Also, the winner is a very typical safe old-school eurosong, and I would have hoped for the contest to have moved on a bit from that. It would have been so nice with a daring and more original winner. Like Netherlands, like Norway.

But all in all a great show with great songs and some really fine performances. Just possibly maybe I like the songs better than the final result, but you can't have it all, can you?

No polite points for the host

Back in the day, there was this idea that the host country automatically recieved a bucket full of complimentary points regardless of what their entry sounded like. Politeness points.

I'm not so sure about that, honestly. Wouldn't the host countries win a whole lot more often, then? In the 57 contests to date, only six occasions saw the host entry win.

In some years, the home ground entries have not exactly been drowned in points. Like in Bergen in 1986, where Norway didn't really make a splash.



Ketil Stokkan - Romeo (Norway 1986) - 12th place of 20

When Ireland first organised Eurovision back in 1971 - and went colour just for the occasion - the panel of expert jurors showed no excessive politeness anyway.



Angela Farrell - One Day Love (Ireland 1971) - 11th place of 18

Latvia had a very promising start at Eurovision and hosted the 2003 ESC in Riga, where their own act were red hot favourites to secure them a second consecutive victory. Those predictions proved a bit on the positive side and in the end, the Latvians only recieved a modest five points, all awarded by neighbour Estonia.



F.L.Y - Hello From Mars (Latvia 2003) - 24th place of 26

Swedish eurovision general was - as you all know - a contestant at the 1992 ESC in Malmö and was the opposite of a hit with the juries. Maybe he sees this year's event - hosted in his city of defeat - as a revenge for the second last place he got back then? Hopefully the 2013 Swedish entrant Robin Stjernberg will have more understanding from Europe this time around.



Christer Björkman - Imorgon är en annan dag (Sweden 1992) - 22nd place of 23

At least he should avoid the fate of the 1958 Dutch entry - the only time in history that the host country ended in the very last place.



Corry Brokken - Heel de wereld (Netherlands 1958) - Equal 9th place of 10

Semi 1: eight out of ten is not bad

After a stylish first semi final with no visible hiccups (not any I could detect anyway) we stand here with the first ten qualifiers of the year.

Estonia, Denmark, Russia, Ukraine, Netherlands, Lithuania, Belarus, Moldova, Ireland and Belgium.

When I predicted the results earlier today, I got eight right out of ten. That's pretty good. I finally ticked the boxes of Croatia and Serbia, who failed to convince the audience in the end. I don't miss them an awful lot, but I feel sorry for Croatia losing out on four consecutive occasions.

But the two finalists I had not foreseen, then? What can I say? 

I take pride in not having predicted Belarus. Not only do I find the song weak and cheesy, I also thought the performance was strained and forced and anything but charming. Everyone else must have seen something that was invisible to me.

Lithuania has made a nasty habit of failing when I like them and qualifying when I think they deserve to fail. I'm not going to cry "diaspora vote" until I see the complete scores from tonight's voting, but it's surprising that a performance as flat as this one could make the final cut.

On the other hand, I am really happy about Estonia and Belgium making it. They were my personal favourites tonight and I doubted that either one of them would enthuse the masses. Especially Roberto Bellarosa was so touching when he almost tore up his little plastic flag with pure happiness.

I also felt for the Dutch, since they were the last country to be announced. Of course. Had I worked for the EBU, I would have saved them for last as well. They have not been in a final since 2004, and extra tension is good for any old show.

Now it is time to recharge the batteries a bit and think about how to predict the second semi. Not at all sure who I'll settle for there. But I save that problem for later.

Semi 1: these are my ten qualifiers

I don't really know why this is, but every year when you are supposed to predict the results you get hit by a surreal feeling of seriousness. But its just a game, isn't it? My guess is as good as yours, et cetera?

Well, there is still some sort of pressure. I wouldn't want to stand there with only four correct countries in the end when everyone else predicted everything right.

So here are tonight's contenders and my final prediction as to who will make it and who won't.

1. AUSTRIA Shine / Natália Kelly
I always thought this would be a very good opening number for the semi final. Perhaps it still is, but it comes at the cost of being eclipsed by everything that comes after it. The song is pleasant and Natália does nothing wrong, but the audience is highly unlikely of remembering this particularly well when the phone lines open.
Qualifier: No.

2. ESTONIA Et uus saaks alguse / Birgit Õigemeel
If this ballad and the Cypriot ballad could swap places in the running order, there would be no doubt in my mind that Birgit and Estonia would make it. This is elegant, sober and very well performed. Not to mention my favourite ballad in this semi. I want to believe in this.
Qualifier: Yes

3. SLOVENIA Straight Into Love / Hannah
Modern, slick and club friendly - but for some reason these qualities seem to matter very little when people cast their votes. Even if Hannah hits all the notes correctly, this is not the kind of song that usually breaks through and a qualification would be a great surprise.
Qualifier: No

4. CROATIA Mižerija / Klapa s mora
Many will find this dull and old-fashioned but a large section of the audience will also hear competent singing and a competent melody line. I'm pretty convinced that quite a few jury members will belong to that latter category.
Qualifier: Yes

5. DENMARK Only Teardrops / Emmelie de Forest
Will the biggest pre-contest make it through the semi? Of course it will. Denmark missing out at this early stage would be more drama than anyone could handle on a Tuesday night.
Qualifier: Yes

6. RUSSIA What If / Dina Garipova
A clean and plesant melody line, a good vocalist and tons of cheese in the lyrical department. Quite far from being one of my personal favourites, qualification is still pretty inevitable.
Qualifier: Yes

7. UKRAINE Gravity / Zlata Ognevich
All this talk of Zlata being carried by a giant and possibly overacting her performance in rehearsals made me worry a bit at first, but there is enough of brilliance and elegance in this song to make it sail safely into the final either way.
Qualifier: Yes

8. NETHERLANDS Birds / Anouk
Suddenly people started having doubts, thinking that the Dutch curse will continue and that Anouk will fail. That is not going to happen. This is the first really good and credible Dutch entry for more than ten years, it will get rewarded for that.
Qualifier: Yes

9. MONTENEGRO Igranka / Who See feat Nina Žižić
One week ago I predicted these party bunnies in the final but I think I changed my mind again. This is a big hit in several ex-yugoslav countries, but even if they shower them in points it won't be enough unless everyone else also fall for this. I would not mind if they did, but I don't see it happening.
Qualifier: No

10. LITHUANIA Something / Andrius Pojavis
I thought I would like this more when I just heard it and didn't have to see the confusing preview presentation. It didn't help, it just showed me how underproduced it is. How little bite or attitude there is. Lithuania surprised me by qualifying in 2011 and 2012. I don't think they will surprise me this time.
Qualifier: No

11. BELARUS Solayoh / Alyona Lanskaya
The more I hear this one, the more I think it sounds like a jingle from an ice cream commercial more than a pop hit. And I can't shake the feeling that it even leaves poor Alyona cold. I still can't see who would vote for this, especially not if they happen to sit in a jury room.
Qualifier: No

12. MOLDOVA O mie / Aliona Moon
I wasn't too sure about this ballad at first, but it kept growing and growing. Just like Aliona's dress is going to tonight. A good performance that also stays in the visual memory is never a bad idea in this contest, a trick that Moldova has mastered well in recent years.
Qualifier: Yes

13. IRELAND Only Love Survives / Ryan Dolan
The first uptempo song that is modern, dance-friendly as well as user-friendly and easily accessible, performed by a fresh and likeable young man accompanied by a healthy amount of drumming and dance beats. The Irish should have nothing to worry about.
Qualifier: Yes

14. CYPRUS An me thimase / Despina Olympiou
Elegance, temper and talent can take a weak song quite a long way. The televoting masses have short memory and in an unfair world Cyprus could win precious ballad votes and take Estonia's place in the final. If so, I promise to be happy for Despina, but her song doesn't quite deserve it.
Qualifier: No

15. BELGIUM Love Kills / Roberto Bellarosa
This is one of my biggest favourites in this semi final but it seems my sentiments are not mirrored by the people predicting the outcome in Malmö. I don't care - I think this chorus and Roberto's nervous intensity will break through to enough people.
Qualifier: Yes

16. SERBIA Ljubav je svuda / Moje 3
The Serbian trio rip and tear their little song to bits and the little hooks and ideas scattered around the chorus get a bit lost in this shoutfest. And yet I think this will make the final cut by looking and sounding familiar enough in combination with being the last country in the presentation. I would prefer Montenegro or Slovenia in the final, but I don't think I will have my way.
Qualifier: Yes

So these are my ten qualifiers tonight: Estonia, Croatia, Denmark, Russia, Ukraine, Netherlands, Moldova, Ireland, Belgium, Serbia.

If I get eight songs right, I will be content. Nine and I will be happy - unless the one I'm wrong about is Anouk. Ten right and I will celebrate until the second semi.

What do you think, folks?

ESC 2013: who is our winner, then?

Two weeks before the big eurovision final and right before the rehearsals start, I managed to finish my big review of the entries in their preview versions.

At some point somebody asked me in a comment who would get my full five-pointer out of these entries and the answer is that nobody got a rating of five.

No less than thirteen countries (one third of the line-up) got four points out of five possible, and for me that describes this year perfectly. It is a good year with many strong contenders but it lacks those complete standout, runaway victory-type of entries.

Which is arguably a good thing. With a bit of luck we could get a tight, nerve-wracking, intense voting sequence that will keep us in suspense up until the very last country has cast its votes. It has been ten years since we had a voting like that. It would be about time.

What about my thirteen four-pointers then? Well, they can be divided into a number of sub-categories:

Personal favourites

I don't really believe that Estonia, Greece, Hungary or Malta will have any real chance of winning the big final, they just happen to ignite something in me. Nobody would be happier than me if I was wrong but I don't think I am.

The potential surprises

I was there to see Marie N win the 2002 final. I remember the sound of everyone's jaws dropping as Riva won for Yugoslavia in 1989. Sometimes the unlikely will happen and then Finland, Belgium, Ireland or France could break through to the audience in an unexpected way and start collecting points aplenty.

The gourmet entries
Italy's song is perhaps too slow, Norway is too modern and has too sharp edges and the Netherlands sounds more like a classy film soundtrack than a eurovision winner. Don't forget that sometimes quality stands out and wins through despite not being tailor-made for this contest. Think Molitva. Think Yohanna.

The crowd-pleasers

Denmark is the biggest favourite to win and has a most easily accessible formula with its singalong chorus and tin whistle. Ukraine has a very engaging performer and always knows how to tweak the last little drop of entertainment out of their songs.

Conclusion?

Do I have to say something clever to sum this up now? Before any rehearsals have started or anything like that, I will just state that my dream winner - the one I think could be the best choice for the future of the contest - would be Norway, Netherlands or Italy. Sharp edges and hit potential for the win.

Ask me again in a week and I might have changed my mind completely. Bring on the rehearsals.

Semi 1: 08 Netherlands

"The Dutch entry is a wonderful little song with great potential to do well in the final." See there, a phrase I have not used for many years. But now the Dutch got their act together.



Anouk - Birds (Netherlands 2013)

Out of the long-time participants of eurovision, the Netherlands has one of the poorest showings since the semi finals were introduced. Only once did they manage to qualify and have not been in a final since 2004.

Not really surprising either as their entries have been far from convincing. They have often been pale, half-hearted, kitschy little songs with far too little heart and what seems like a fear of looking too serious.

What a good thing then that they finally got around to asking Anouk to do the job for them. Not only is she an experienced singer with a timbre of her own, she has also been around long enough to figure out that people who stay true to their own style tend to get rewarded for that.

So out goes the typical eurosongs and in comes an atmospheric number, sounding more like an inspired part of a 60's movie score rather than anything else. Rich, sophisticated and a little bit demanding. Not completely unlike last years Albanian entry.

The only thing that holds my grade down a tiny bit is the hope that this song will develop even a little bit further live. Anouk has said in interviews that she is thinking very much of the visual presentation, what colour this song should be. Sounds very promising to me.

Qualifier:
Yes. Perhaps not everybody's cup of tea but more than enough people will love this to make it sail safely into the final. First Dutch entry doing so in a long, long, long time.

My grade: 4/5

By the way, am I the only one who is reminded of this other Dutch entry - also an ambitious and demanding entry that happened to do quite well in the end?



Saskia & Serge - De tijd (Netherlands 1971)

Tobson's Ranking: #35 Netherlands

The Indians might be coming, but they didn't quite conquer Europe, did they?



Joan Franka - You And Me (Netherlands 2012)

Given that this was the eight consecutive Dutch entry to fail qualification, one should maybe be a bit kind here. And I am. I have twisted and turned this song around and upgraded it from "atrocious" to "acceptable". A big step for an entry like this.

Joan has a certain likeability and the set-up in Baku with her backing band felt really nice.

Just too bad that she lost her nerves and sang quite badly in the live show. She would have needed to sing more than excellently to win people over, as the very ill-advised plumage clearly worked to her disadvantage.

There was a story to the feathers, everyone who heard it would probably find it a bit touching. But the people at home - the televoters, the people with the power - they had no clue what was going on and probably found the whole stunt a bit ridiculous.

My grade: 2/5

Glennis Grace had a hit in her

In 2005, the Netherlands sent in a promising young singer who had won the Dutch Soundmix show already at the age of 16, making an almost perfect impersonation of Whitney Houston.

The Soundmix show - designed for people to sing as similarly as possible to well-known singers - was always a dubious place to look for fresh talent. You never knew who carried the grains of a real artist inside and who was just a gifted copycat.

For a long time, Glennis Grace seemed just like the latter version. She had a good voice, but it seemed impossible for her to get rid of the Whitney connection and when she won the 2005 Dutch national final she already had one flop album behind her.



Glennis Grace - My Impossible Dream (Netherlands 2005)

Glennis was one of several hot fan favourites before the semi-final in Kyiv, but her cliché-ridden ballad - a tired re-write of several Whitney-esque ballads - failed to qualify for the final and it seemed Glennis' career had hit rock bottom and arrived at its end station.

But sometimes a complete meltdown is what your career needs. Glennis was dumped by her label, had a change of management and, perhaps most importantly, had a change of language and started singing in Dutch.

When she participated in the popular tv-show "De beste zangers van Nederland" in 2011, she made a cover of the song "Afscheid" and finally found instant success with the larger audience. Gone was the Whitney-clone and instead there is a real performer with her very own expression and a much wiser use of her really impressive voice.

Now that she has found herself - as well as her audience - maybe Glennis should ponder doing Eurovision again? If she was the one to take the Netherlands back into the final, for the first time since 2004, I am sure the audience would never forget.



Glennis Grace - Afscheid

Song of the Day: Netherlands 1964

I went through my blog statistics and noted that I have faithful readers both here and there.

One of the countries I had not expected to see on top ten when it comes to number of pageviews is Indonesia, but it is wonderful to see that you keep coming back.

I think that deserves some recognition, so my hommage to the readers in Indonesia is this song - the first Eurovision entry ever performed by an Indonesian-born singer.

Anneke Grönloh was (and is) a huge star in the Netherlands and sang a modern pop song one year too early. The juries were not ready and only awarded a grand total of two points for this fantastically catchy little ditty. One year later, France Gall was to go all the way to victory with another really modern entry.

So here's to lovely Anneke, and here's to Indonesia! Tobson bows to you!



Anneke Grönloh - Jij bent mijn leven (Netherlands 1964)

(As most of you are aware, there is no known video copy of Eurovision 1964 in existence. But the studio version is smashing too.)