Tobson's Big ESC 2019 review, part 6

A few years into the new system of semi finals, the fandom established a number of "truths" - one of these being that there are a number of countries that can't possibly fail in a semi final.

In some cases because they have a large cultural sphere with neighbours voting for them, in some cases because they have a large and active diaspora voting for them, in some cases because they have loads of money and no morals and gladly pay their way into a better result. In some cases, all three of the above combined.

The first major blow to this theory came in 2011 as both Armenia and Turkey bombed in the same semi in Düsseldorf and last year in Lisbon was a major event as three of the "eternal qualifiers" - Azerbaijan, Romania and Russia - all missed the grand final.

The only countries never to have lost out in a semi final are Ukraine (not participating this year) and Australia. Nobody's safe anymore.

This blog post includes the final six semi finalists of 2019. If you want to read about the other songs competing in the 2019 semi finals you will find them here in part one, two, three, four and five.


13 RUSSIA
Sergey Lazarev / Scream

I was both surprised and a bit puzzled when I heard Sergey's comeback entry for the first time. Far from the kitsch fest I had feared and expected, this is a mature if somewhat overly bombastic entry that suits his voice well. Good but in no way a potential winner, not even for Russia. Only now all reports suggests that the big wallet has been hoisted up and that the stage show could be even more over the top than the last time around and suddenly I just feel exhausted and slightly nauseated. All that high-tech hocus pocus wrecks more than it adds and I wonder when people will learn?

Qualifier:
Yes, of course. Russia is back in the game and when they are motivated, nothing can stop them in the semi.

My grade: 3/5


14 ALBANIA
Jonida Maliqi / Ktheju tokës

Writing songs about topical themes is a difficult path to tread. There is always a serious risk that you will end up giving the impression you are trying to profit from the misfortune of others rather than being a voice of empathy and reason. Albania manages this balance act rather brilliantly and by singing about refugees of their own - people who left their country during the Kosovo war - they also manage to make their package inclusive and relevant to everyone.

Qualifier:
Yes, I think and hope so. It has a sound that is different enough to set it apart from other songs in the lineup and Jonida is an excellent performer too.

My grade: 3/5


15 NORWAY
KEiiNO / Spirit In The Sky

This happy trio is blending almost every ingredient in the kitchen into a big bowl and the ESC fans love it. There is a bit of joik and a bit of drumming and a chorus we've heard before somewhere (not sure this is the song Saara Aalto will televote for), all of which delivered with far bigger smiles than the lyrics call for. Right out of Melodifestivalen 2005 or so. Add a performance like the one in the national final which was frankly all over the place and you'll see why I'm having doubts.

Qualifier:
I'm not so sure. I personally like it - at least in its studio version - but is "Vrag naj vzame" meets "Sámiid ædnan" really what will get the masses going? I'm leaning towards a no here.

My grade: 3/5


16 THE NETHERLANDS
Duncan Laurence / Arcade

The Netherlands scored four victories in the first twenty years of the ESC and then their well ran dry. Now the big question is whether this is the time when their fortunes get reversed? It could very well be. Suddenly they find themselves with a shining little pop pearl with a big emotional chorus and a very sensitive and attractive performer. Something that could very well ride high in the charts. The only thing that stops me from thinking this is an outright winner is that it doesn't feel like the sort of song that would win the Eurovision Song Contest. Does it?

Qualifier:
Yes, absolutely. One of perhaps four or five potential winners. Sometimes I'm wrong too.

My grade: 4/5


17 NORTH MACEDONIA
Tamara / Proud

Ten years after the juries let her down in Belgrade, Tamara is back to clear her name. It is not entirely out of the question. Through the years, North Macedonia has emerged as one of the countries - perhaps the country - most likely to ruin their own chance by awful choice regarding styling, outfits, staging and so on. This very stripped-down song doesn't really allow any outrageous behaviour on stage and puts full focus on the singing.

Qualifier:
Borderline. The song is a brave attempt but possibly not interesting enough in its own right. If Tamara sings her heart out while hitting the right notes, it could go all the way but I suspect North Macedonia will be out. For the seventh consecutive year.

My grade: 2/5


18 AZERBAIJAN
Chingiz / Truth

My first reaction to the Azerbaijani entry was that it didn't have a single drop of personality. Nicely produced, well sung, sounded right but totally anonymous. I have warmed to it since, mainly thanks to the enchanting Chingiz who manages to fill it up with presence and, I suppose, sex appeal. He is the asset carrying this entry on his broad shoulders but lately personalities have not done Azerbaijan a lot of good.

Qualifier:
Yes. Last year was a hiccup. Chingiz will sail into the final on charm alone and will end up somewhere around 14th place there.

My grade: 3/5


If you want to agree or disagree with me, please leave a comment or send me a tweet. All the preview clips can be seen here.

Tweet to @TobsonHelsinki

Tobson's Big ESC 2018 review, part 1

We are very, very close to the 2018 Eurovision Song Contest and I for one can't wait to see how Portugal will pull off hosting the ESC after waiting for this opportunity for so long.

Fate has been nice to RTP as it handed them the strongest lineup for many years to work with. Many of these songs are so good, they need no LED screens to make them come alive and shine.

Here are my thoughts on the songs, judging from this years preview clips, which you can see on the official Eurovision YouTube Channel.

01. AZERBAIJAN
Aisel / X My Heart

There are many interesting things going on in the running order this year. Are they clues? Quite certainly Christer Björkman has a finger or two in this pie. Why would he put a song like this first of all in the semi? It is nice and a good opener but lacks any kind of personality or temper or anything to make it stand out in a semi as strong as this. Is this the year when Azerbaijan falls out already in the semi?

Qualifier:
I wouldn't bet my house on it.

My grade: 2/5

02. ICELAND
Ari Ólafsson / Our Choice

Somebody could write a scientific essay on when Iceland lost their mojo in this contest. Was it when Yohanna managed to take something sweet and inoffensive and turn it into a silver medal in Moscow 2009? After last year's attempt at edge, Iceland is back at the sweet and inoffensive. Young Ari is a good singer and an adorable personality but this song is so terribly clichéd and dated that it defies description. And the lyrics is just the final kiss of death.

Qualifier:
No. The most likely contender to end last in the entire semi.

My grade: 1/5

03. ALBANIA
Eugent Bushpepa / Mall

Albania does a whole lot of things right. They stay true to their own selves, they keep sending songs that say something about the local music scene performed by local stars. And yet they have struggled to make an impact lately. This song is less complicated and more accessible than recent efforts and Eugent delivers the goods like he really means whatever he is singing. Had this been drawn into the weaker second semi instead, it could really have stood a chance.

Qualifier:
No. There are too many good songs fighting it out for only ten spots. Rotten luck but that's the rules of the game.

My grade: 2/5

04. BELGIUM
Sennek / A Matter Of Time

After three consecutive killer songs from Wallonia, also Flanders woke up and copied the winning concept of their countrymen: sniff out some fresh talent and give them more or less complete liberty to create a compelling entry. And would you believe it - it works also across the linguistic border. Rather Bond-esque (a bit of a trend this year) and most compelling, performed by an intriguing singer.

Qualifier:
Yes. This must qualify or everyone must resign.

My grade: 5/5

05. CZECH REPUBLIC
Mikolas Josef / Lie To Me

The first time I heard this song I thought it was really super annoying. There is a fine line between being annoying and entertaining, it seems. Dumb but irresistibly catchy, performed by someone who knows exactly what it takes to make a package like this work. My only regret is that the camel is not allowed on stage.

Qualifier:
Yes. You bet. And for the first time, Czech republic could make it into the higher regions of the top ten too.

My grade: 4/5

06. LITHUANIA
Ieva Zasimauskaitė / When We're Old

One thing is certain - you never know in advance what sort of song Lithuania will come up with. This one is the most sincere and tender thing they have entered in a long time, sung in a delicate way by a very likeable singer. The kind of entry that would really deserve to get rewarded big time.

Qualifier:
No. I'm afraid not. Had this one been drawn in the second half, then maybe. Now it will be too intimate too early on in the running order and get forgotten. Unless the juries absolutely adore it and save it.

My grade: 3/5

07. ISRAEL
Netta / Toy

40 years after Izhar Cohen and 20 years after Dana International - wouldn't it be nice if Israel won the contest with something surprising again? Netta is a real personality with a strong and personable voice and the chicken clucking gimmick is sheer brilliance. However, this entry is also sure to be very divisive. How well with it click with a mainstream audience in the end?

Qualifier:
Oh yes. That's hardly a problem. The question is how far this craziness will go in the final.

My grade: 4/5

08. BELARUS
Alekseev / Forever

More than one has described the first semi in Lisbon as a "blood bath". Colourful metaphor and all, but many of the songs lined up would have stood a better chance in the second semi. Like Belarus, whose pop song is quite good - despite the fact that it breaks the rules and should be disqualified - but maybe not good enough to break through. The new edit does it no favours and it had been nice had Alekseev been able to sing it properly live.

Qualifier:
Borderline but my gut feeling tells me this one will be out by quite a slim margin.

My grade: 2/5

09. ESTONIA
Elina Nechayeva / La forza

What a relief when somebody is finally doing proper opera singing at Eurovision. No funny games, no pop verses, no funny hats. Elina is just singing her modern aria beautifully and gracefully. Regardless if she can keep the dress projections from the national final or not, this is an oasis of class and style.

Qualifier:
It does run the risk of being the Blackbird of the year, but I do think Estonia is back in the final with this one.

My grade: 3/5

10. BULGARIA
Equinox / Bones

Bulgaria came back to the ESC transformed into a nation of modern and compelling pop and they stay true to form also this year. Bones is perhaps more complicated and less instant and a more risky choice. Applause for anyone not willing to just play it safe!

Qualifier:
Yes, most certainly. This is maybe not winning material like last year, but getting to the final should be a walk in the park.

My grade: 3/5

Tobson's Big ESC 2017 review, part 2

It feels good to be up and running and finally make my way through the competing songs of the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest. If you missed Part One with the five first entries in the first semi final, you can find it by clicking here.

In this second part we will find something progressive and something classy as well as various kinds of old-fashioned. Which can be a wonderful thing at times but not necessarily a way to make Europe fall at your feet.

06. MONTENEGRO
Slavko Kalezić / Space

At one point during the preselection season it seemed every country in existence opted for big ballads belted out with gusto by female performers in possession of various kinds of vocal capabilities and for a while the entire lineup threatened to turn into a dull and difficult shout-fest and nothing more. When this Montenegrin piece of gay disco landed it was easy to regard this as the entry that would save us all from boredom. Then we got a couple of really decent uptempo numbers and Montenegro ended up a bit in the shade.

Qualifier:

No, most probably not. The greatest weapon in Slavko's arsenal is his gay aesthetics but that is also his biggest problem. He might turn viewers away in some countries while other parts of this continent saw things like these already in the late 1980's and will find them tame and old-school. The song is likeable but hardly strong enough to persuade anyone and the chorus is more repetitive than truly convincing. Not bad but not enough.

My grade: 3/5

Slavko Kalezić / Space (Montenegro 2017 preview)

07. FINLAND

Norma John / Blackbird

Typically enough, Finland enters a haunting ballad in a year when more than a fair share of the participating countries put their faith in ballads. But maybe Finland got it right this time after all. Leena Tirronen is a truly captivating vocalist and the piano break really gives this entry a flavour of its own. Coming after more standard eurovision ballads like Georgia and Albania also gives the audience an idea about this one perhaps being more original than most others. If the live performance is kept understated, clean and elegant like in the national final - please, don't add any dancers or anything! - this one could stand out and at least get heavily voted by the juries.

Qualifier:

Borderline. Finland has the bad habit of easily getting overlooked once it is time to vote, but if quality means anything to anyone anymore this one should be bang in the final.

My grade: 4/5

Norma John / Blackbird (Finland 2017 preview)

08. AZERBAIJAN

Dihaj / Skeletons

In what must surely be a strange coincidence, Azerbaijani entries have done pretty badly at the ESC since the EBU imposed stricter rules with heavy punishment for any country getting caught manipulating the televote anywhere. Maybe they missed being in the upper regions of the scoreboard and if they did, this could well be a return to form as they - for the first time since their 2008 debut - make use of a domestic songwriter. And this songwriter surely did his job right. This is modern, this is suggestive and this is ridiculously catchy. The way Dihaj and her backing singers sing the chorus almost in canon is an old trick but beautifully executed. Articulation leaves a lot to be desired - I had no idea what she was singing until I read the lyrics - but that isn't really a problem when the final product is this solid. Azerbaijan's best entry since 2011.

Qualifier:

Do whales poop in the ocean? Yes, this is a sure qualifier. If Dihaj can deliver the goods convincingly on stage, this one could go very far in the end.

My grade: 4/5

Dihaj / Skeletons (Azerbaijan 2017 preview)

09. PORTUGAL

Salvador Sobral / Amar pelos dois

The first time I heard this song I thought it sounded like a Eurovision winner. If the year had been 1957, that is. Then I listened again and got totally knocked out. This song is timeless rather than old-fashioned, and this soft evergreen easy listening style has huge audiences around the world. Michael Bublé, anyone? Then it doesn't hurt to have a performer like Salvador Sobral either. The boy is so immensely talented, so devoted to his music, so sensitive. Bursting with talent and with a very personable approach to performing. This one is sure to be divisive come Eurovision week but being as original as this one - in a lineup as streamlines as this year's - really should pay off.

Qualifier:

Yes. I want to believe this is not only a qualifier but also has a shot at becoming Portugal's best showing to date.

My grade: 4/5

Salvador Sobral / Amar pelos dois (Portugal 2017 preview)

Semi 1: 14 Azerbaijan / Miracle

As per usual Azerbaijan selected a local talent and then got international songwriters to set the singer in question up with an appealing package. This method used to work so well for Azerbaijan but the last two years left a few question marks.

In 2014, "Start A Fire" turned out to be Azerbaijan's worst showing to date. Last year "Hour of the Wolf" only managed a tenth place in its semi final.

Instead of coming back with a vengeance they offer us a pleasant but in no way unforgettable pop number, reminiscent of many others heard and seen in this contest in recent years.

Most of all it reminds me of Azerbaijan's own "Hold Me", which came together with a stage number to die for. In order to make this work, Samra needs to perform her little heart out in Stockholm.

Qualifier:
Borderline. There are many songs in this same style and this team really have to nail every detail to convince the audience. Could go either way but this is probably in.

My grade: 2/5



Samra / Miracle (Azerbaijan 2016 preview clip)

Semi 2: 11 Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan keep doing what they do best: get foreign talent - songwriters, choreographers, backing vocalists, stylists - to fashion an entry for some local performer to wear on the catwalk that is the eurovision stage.

Despite their disappointing showing in Copenhagen, they seem keen on continuing to get more sophisticated and slightly more demanding songs. Something I must applaud them for doing. Not playing safe is a trait I appreciate.

Just like the 1968 French entry, it seems to draw inspiration from a film by Ingmar Bergman - perhaps not too surprising given that the main songwriters are from Sweden. "The Hour of the Wolf" - Bergman's only real horror movie - tells the story of an artist haunted by nightmares before finally crossing the line and falling into madness.

Both the lyrics and the clip seems to have borrowed tiny elements from the film and I can't decide whether it's clever or pretentious. More clever, I think. I sort of like it.

I sort of like the song too. It's introverted yet acting out at the same time, but in the end I find myself overwhelmed by it. The chorus gets very noisy. Suddenly it just sits down on your lap and shouts into your face. I would have toned it down a notch.

Qualifier:
Yes, unless Elnur goes bananas and wails the song to bits. (A duet between him and Ruth Lorenzo would be real scary.)

My grade: 3/5



Elnur Huseynov - Hour of the Wolf (Azerbaijan 2015)

Semi 1: 08 Azerbaijan

I'll just say it quickly to have it over and done with: I'd be much happier if Azerbaijan at least once would dare rely on their own songwriters instead of buying foreign stuff. Having said that, this is the best song they bought in years.



Dilara Kazimova - Start A Fire (Azerbaijan 2014)

This is an unusual entry, soft and jazzy, soaked in duduk. Could easily have turned into a complete snoozefest in the wrong hands, but Dilara could possibly be one of the most interesting performers Azerbaijan has sent to Eurovision so far.

She keeps it sensual and intimate and appealing for three minutes in this video clip. If she manages the same trick live on stage, she could be the one that collects many of the available ballad points.

Qualifier: Beyond the shadow of a doubt, yes. Unfortunately not only due to musical merit.

My grade: 3/5

ESC 2013: Dirty tricks during the voting?

The news are all over the place. According to Lithuanian online paper 15 min agents have paid people to vote for Azerbaijan in Lithuania as well as a number of other countries in order to improve their Eurovision result.

The proof is hard to verify and some people claim that the shows footage is staged and only made to slander the successful Azeri entries, but this excellent piece by 12points.tv show quite a few disturbing tendencies in the patterns of what countries vote extensively for Azerbaijan. Let's just say it doesn't look good.

There have also been equally unconfirmed rumours about other countries performing the same stunt - Russia has been named - in order to do well in the voting.

I see these allegations and get the same resigned feeling I had back in the years 1994-2002, another period with extensive trading of points - a standard that obviously upset the flow of points and most probably altered the final results considerably.

I remember sitting on the plane back home after the 2002 final in Tallinn, marking on the scoreboard every given point that seemed suspicious. After a while, having realised just how much trading had been going on, I just had to ask myself if there was any point to keep organising a contest as rigged as this one.

When Digame took over the supervision of televotes, things started to look better for several years but now the voting is beginning to leave a bad taste. Again.

I suggest the EBU investigates the situation properly and then sit down to have a hard think how to make the voting credible again. Eurovision - already tainted with rumours and allegations of being political and unfair - can not afford to have a voting that will upset the audiences.

The Eurovision Song Contest is just a light-hearted little game for the whole family. Strictly speaking the outcome is not important to the world as such.

But every light-hearted game - be it Trivial Pursuit, mini golf or Eurovision - has one thing in common. If some of the players start breaking the rules and cheat, then nobody will enjoy the game and nobody will want to play anymore.

Cheating kills the fun. So somebody better do something about this. At once.

ESC 2013: First thoughts after the final

Well, my prediction from earlier today went so-so. I wasn't completely lost in the woods, but just like with Alexander Rybak in 2009 I managed not to predict the obvious winner.

Basically because I really hoped for something else.

Don't get me wrong, I am really happy for the Danes and the Danish song is not a bad one, but I was hoping for a surprise. And something more modern, something more daring. The Danish entry was safe all the way and I somehow don't feel that's the winner we would need at this point.

One positive thing is that Only Teardrops might have a hit potential that runner-up Azerbaijan would have lacked. Another good thing is that a huge record market like Germany recognised the quality in a song like Hungary's. Also more demanding songs like Italy and the Netherlands made top ten.

Maybe next year, the more difficult songs will get to set the tone and we will have a winner more along the lines of that.

SVT made a fantastic job and delivered a glimmering show, at least up until the voting. There were too many small annoying technical mistakes during the voting procedure and how experienced producers could allocate so little time for the points, allowing the show to overrun like that, is a mystery.

Petra Mede, however, sailed like a queen through it all. Beautiful, funny, reliable. This will be a hard show for Denmark to follow.

More thoughts tomorrow after a good night's sleep. What do the rest of you think?

Results:
1) Denmark 281 points, 2) Azerbaijan 234, 3) Ukraine 214, 4) Norway 191, 5) Russia 174, 6) Greece 152, 7) Italy 126, 8) Malta 120, 9) Netherlands 114, 10) Hungary 84, 11) Moldova 71, 12) Belgium 71, 13) Romania 65, 14) Sweden 62, 15) Georgia 50, 16) Belarus 48, 17) Iceland 47, 18) Armenia 41, 19) United Kingdom 23, 20) Estonia 19, 21) Germany 18, 22) Lithuania 17, 23) France 14, 24) Finland 13, 25) Spain 8, 26) Ireland 5.

Semi 2: these are my ten qualifiers

If there was pressure to predict the first semi final then this second one feels like a nightmare for various reasons. Mainly because it all seems very open and I have no idea whether to predict with my heart or with my head.

I feel sure about five of ten qualifiers, perhaps. Then it feels like the placings 6 - 16 or so are one big grand lottery. How will the points spread between the candidates? If they spread enormously you might need less points than ever to make top ten tonight. Then a couple of high points could be enough. Which opens up for basically anyone.

But again - I repeat my old mantra that this is just a game and nothing to be taken too seriously. If I tell myself that a number of times I might believe it in the end.

1. LATVIA Here We Go / PeR
Just like Austria, this is a very good opening number and for a long time I thought this would be the happy pill that would appeal to the audience in the end. But I thought the same about Trackshittaz last year. You've got to learn sometime.
Qualifier: No

2. SAN MARINO Crisalide / Valentina Monetta 
This is where the real prediction nightmare starts. If you are not a eurovision fan and you don't know how much Valentina improved since last year, all you are left with as a ballad that never fully develops and a dated beat from the Siegel factory, which hasn't worked since 1999. This prediction is more based on me wanting to see San Marino on a scoreboard for once. Heart wins over head.
Qualifier: Yes

3. FYR MACEDONIA Pred da se razdeni / Esma & Lozano
I still think this is a dismal song that merely uses Esma as a special effect and nothing more, but you could have way worse special effects than her. And I'd rather have her than many others on offer tonight.
Qualifier: Yes

4. AZERBAIJAN Hold Me / Farid Mammadov
A weak song enhanced by technology, pretty much like last year's Azeri entry. Of course it will work, at least at this point.
Qualifier: Yes

5. FINLAND Marry Me / Krista Siegfrieds
Catchy, instant, over the top, girl on girl kissing, wedding dress. This one will stay in the audience's mind and will sail into the final. Well done, girl.
Qualifier: Yes

6. MALTA Tomorrow / Gianluca
A very charming song with a very charming singer has, reportedly, turned unnecessarily dull and not striking enough on stage. I still want to think that an ukulele and eyes as charming as Gianluca's will be enough, but I'm not sure at all.
Qualifier: Yes

7. BULGARIA Samo shampioni / Elitsa & Stoyan
Despite liking them a lot in Helsinki six years ago, I did not predict them to qualify, neither did I see their top five placing coming in advance. So maybe the trick will work again, despite this song lacking everything that made "Voda" good. But I don't think so.
Qualifier: No

8. ICELAND Ég á líf / Eyþór Ingi Gunnlaugsson
This is a pretty little ballad in many ways. Iceland has a way of squeezing themselves into the final where they ultimately don't do so well. It could work this time around as well, but the battle for ballad points is ferocious and Iceland would need a large portion of luck to make it this time.
Qualifier: No

9. GREECE Alcohol Is Free / Koza Mostra feat Agathonas Iakovidis
This is another truly divisive song that certain people will detest, but temper, attitude, forza and dancing musicians dressed in kilts will win in the end.
Qualifier: Yes

10. ISRAEL Rak bishvilo / Moran Mazor
One week ago I predicted that Iceland would make it and Israel would not. Today I swap them around. I still think the song would need more of a climax - I expect more than it ever delivers every time I hear it - but think Moran's intensity will beat the Icelandic cool in the end. And I doubt there is room for them both in the final.
Qualifier: Yes

11. ARMENIA Lonely Planet / Dorians
I really hate bringing up the subject of diaspora voting, but the Armenian Head of Delegation mentioned it herself in their press conference this week. In my mind, this is the weakest song of the second semi, but will potential friendship points be enough to take it to the final. For the sake of this competition, I hope not.
Qualifier: No

12. HUNGARY Kedvesem / ByeAlex
This is one of my top favourites this year. But I think this introverted but brilliant little gem will be too demanding from a grand audience on a Thursday night and that it could very well mean ByeHungary in the end. I would love to be wrong on this one, but I don't see it happening.
Qualifier: No

13. NORWAY I Feed You My Love / Margaret Berger
After all these question marks it feels wonderful to be this sure again. Norway is a potential winner this year and is a sure qualifier tonight.
Qualifier: Yes

14. ALBANIA Identitet / Bledar Sejko & Adrian Lulgjuraj
I like these rockers, I like their song and I like their sound. But just like in 2011, I think this will be a bit too much for Europe. Unfortunately.
Qualifier: No

15. GEORGIA Waterfall / Nodi & Sophie
Big voices and a big - albeit predictable - ballad. Will work wonders and steal lots and lots of points and ruin the chances for most other ballad entries - how many are there room for besides this one?
Qualifier: Yes

16. SWITZERLAND You And Me / Takasa
Alongside Armenia, my least favourite song in this semi. Three minutes of very little action and very little else. The big question is if people are prepared to vote for a group just because they feature the oldest person ever on a eurovision stage. And again, for the sake of this competiton, I hope the answer is no.
Qualifier: No

17. ROMANIA It's My Life / Cezar
Is this a good song? No, not particularly. Will people laugh at Cezar tonight? Quite a few will, yes. But perhaps the final needs a performance like this. To ensure entertainment value for everyone.
Qualifier: Yes

So these are my ten qualifiers tonight: San Marino, FYR Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Finland, Malta, Greece, Israel, Norway, Georgia and Romania. My heart is bleeding for Hungary, but I really don't dare hope that they will make it.

Am I sure? Not the least. Azerbaijan, Greece, Norway, Georgia and Finland will be in the final. Everything else is up for grabs. If I have more than five right tonight, that will be a victory in itself.

So bring it on, prove me wrong!

Semi 2: 04 Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan seems to have found themselves a formula: get a song that does not stand out too much and a fairly good performer and then you're done.



Farid Mammadov - Hold Me (Azerbaijan 2013)

If that is the formula, then Azeri tv is really staying true to style. Hold Me is a very typical eurovision ballad with no sharp edges or anything disturbing or threatening anywhere in sight. A clever musical arrangement makes it stand out as a little more interesting than it really is, but it still is quite some way from sensational.

The real selling point in this entry is Farid himself. He is a good singer and looks rather pretty and trustworthy. He rather reminds me of a certain Eldar who scored quite heavily the other year in Düsseldorf.

I just hope they don't drown him in special effects of any sort in Malmö. Then my already humble grade will drop further.

Qualifier:
Yes. This will be ballad heaven for a certain section of the audience and eye candy for another. But I'm yawning a bit.

My grade: 2/5

Tobson Ranking: #31 Azerbaijan

It's cold, cold, cold. (It's their words, not mine!)



Sabina Babayeva - When The Music Dies (Azerbaijan 2012)

As every year, no expense was saved in order to make Azerbaijan's entry stand out from the rest. Sabina Babayeva was given a state-of-the-art high-tech dress with an advanced light show on it (as well as an extra dose of collagen in her lips) to enhance her performance.

It does look fantastic (the dress, that is) and adds an extra piece of drama.

The ethnic touch, added by the famous backing singer and some local instruments, failed to gel with the song, however. The whole package came across as a bit too loud for its own good.

And above all - while Sabina hits the notes correctly (despite being a bit shaky in the lower register), she fails to deliver a single trace of emotion throughout her performance. There is no heart in it. It's just... cold.

And I fail to believe that was how a song about heartbreak was supposed to be.

My grade: 2/5

The 2012 review: part nine

Well, this is it. Time to wrap the big review up for this time with a post containing the six songs already qualified for the big final. And it is very pleasant indeed to note that the "big" countries have all taken their positions seriously, making more of an effort than they have in the past.

1. UNITED KINGDOM



Engelbert Humperdinck - Love Will Set You Free

If the BBC aimed at getting extra coverage for bringing on the oldest solo singer ever in Eurovision, they must have been sorely disappointed when the Russian babushki came on and stole their show. But there is far more to this entry than mere gimmicks.

Engelbert Humperdinck is, indeed, a star performer whose experience will come in handy on a big event like this. I surely thought Blue would handle the pressure better last year, this year's entrant will probably fare better. There is also a very well crafted song to be found here, sincerely and gently performed. Unlike most it isn't targeted at the younger viewers but at the older - they watch too, and they vote.

Potential winner:
No. It would be a huge surprise if this song came anywhere close to victory, but it is a very dignified and worthy entry that will recieve extensive airplay all summer at radio stations aimed at a more mature audience.

My grade: 3/5

9. FRANCE



Anggun - Echo (You And I)

France is keeping the high profile they have maintained since sending Sébastien Tellier to Belgrade in 2008 - maybe they are not sending in the easiest or most graspable entries, but they are certainly making an effort to keep this contest interesting. Anggun has been a star in France since 1997, and French television has seen her as a promising ESC entrant for years already.

Her song is a joyful, proud and original little pop pearl - again not taking the easiest path into the hearts of the televoters but providing something a bit more challenging for the listeners to chew on.

Potential winner:
No, unless the French manage to stage a visually supportive show around this entry to make it stand out better for the audience. Definitely a hit single, but possibly too demanding for the average viewer.

My grade: 5/5

10. ITALY



Nina Zilli - L'amore è femmina

Last year, Italy made an effective comeback after a lenghty absence and was rewarded with one of their best placings ever. Given how much Europe had longed for the Italian temper and sense of know-how in the field of pop music, my antennae are beginning to whisk frenetically at this point.

The song Nina intended to sing at first might have been better and the current song might have sounded better in Italian only, but when this bombshell makes her grand entrance, filling her little song up with sex appeal and joie-de-vivre, it could very well be that Europe cannot resist.

Potential winner:
Yes. Europe has always had a fondness for Italian songs and performers, not always shared by the Eurovision juries. With a performer like Nina Zilli, a recognisable sound and a juicy chours like this it could very well spell victory in the end.


My grade: 5/5


13. AZERBAIJAN



Sabina Babayeva - When The Music Dies

The host country sticks to their winning formula and has bough another song by the same Swedish team who wrote Safura's "Drip Drop" as well as last year's winning entry. In this year when a large number of countries have borrowed songwriting talent from elsewhere, who is to blame Azerbaijan for sticking to a winning formula?

Too bad that the formula didn't come up with anything stronger than this, then. The song is rather a tired re-write of things heard before (most notably "Stop" by Sam Browne) and performed by a good but not particularly personable singer.

Potential winner:
No, I would not think so. If it is performed really well with an effective stage show, it could be a contender for a top ten placing, but not much more than that.

My grade: 1/5

19. SPAIN



Pastora Soler - Quédate conmigo

This could very well rate as the most positive surprise of the year. For quite some time now, Spain has sent in real non-contender entries, lacking force in all departments. Either the songs have not been good enough or the performances have not been good enough or both of these in combination.

This year, it all seems to come together when a warm, strong, big voice meets a warm, strong, big ballad that might be a bit old-fashioned but very well crafted and instantly understandable for the bigger part of the audience.

Potential winner:
Yes, I am beginning to think so. Spain will need a bit of luck - a lot depends on who gets drawn right before them in the final - but this could be the song that gets embraced by both televoters and juries alike.

My grade: 4/5

20. GERMANY



Roman Lob - Standing Still

Germany is also sticking to form, going back to the same talent show format that gave them a second victory in the form of Lena two years ago. It seems to have worked again as the winner, adorable starry-eyed pop boy Roman, has hit home with the masses and is currently enjoying solid success in the domestic charts.

I'm happy for him and I am happy for German television, but I have a feeling that the German flag will end up a little bit further down the scoreboard this time. This song is perfect radio pop that you will recognise and appreciate on the airwaves, but that possibly be a bit too streamlined and laidback to stand out in a competition like this.

Potential winner:
No. Worst case scenario is that this will be the song that falls between the seats and ends up close to the bottom. Not because it is bad, but because it will ultimately not be anyone's favourite. The thing that can save it from failure is Roman - if he really delivers on the night, I might be completely wrong here. And I wouldn't mind.

My grade: 3/5

ESC 2012: exit Armenia

Yesterday, Armenian television finally made their minds up and decided not to send any representative to the 2012 Eurovision Song Contest. The reason for this is, of course, the strained relations between them and host country Azerbaijan.

Politics have always been present at Eurovision, but this kind of action has still been rare. In 1979, Turkey made a last-minute decision not to send a song to Jerusalem (some sources claim this was the result of pressure put on Turkey by Arab countries) and in 2009 Georgia ultimately did not participate in Moscow (although they made an attempt of sending an anti-Putin song into competition).

Also, Morocco would have been far less likely to take part in 1980 had Israel participated, just like Lebanon withdrew in 2005 due to not wanting to be in competition with the Jewish state.

I can't blame Armenia for not taking chances, but I can't estimate the effort the EBU and Azeri television made in order to have them in.

However, if Armenia knew already from the beginning that they would not participate, it would have been better to make a dignified exit already before the regular deadline and saved us the last-minute drama.

Now I just hope that Armenian television will still broadcast the ESC from Baku, so the national fans won't miss out, as well as for them to be back with a vengeance in 2013.



Sirusho - Qele Qele (Armenia 2008 preview) 

Tobson Ranking: #9 Azerbaijan

Sweet and sentimental in a tasteful setting but I never in a million years thought this would be the winner in the end.



Ell/Nikki - Running Scared (Azerbaijan 2011)

This is the kind of song that is tailormade for studio production. It contains some parts that are hard to sing but will sound excellent with several takes and quite a bit of overdubbing.

I was doubtful from the beginning how it would sound live, but I must admit that the couple manages to hit the notes far better than expected. Both of them, especially Ell, possess an undeniable charm that works well with the song.

The difficulty affects their vocal delivery anyhow, you can sense a hesitation in their voices and the singing is weaker than in the recorded version.

The stage performance, designed by a Swede, is elegant but also a bit anonymous, where the waterfall of fire leaves a more lasting impression than the singers themselves.

The song, also designed by Swedes, is also elegant but has precious little to do with what goes on in the world of Azeri music.

That is my big problem with this entry - anyone could theoretically hire Madonna to sing for them or have RedOne write their entry.

But when this contest is more about who has the biggest wallet rather than who can write the best song, then there isn't much point to a song contest anymore.

My grade: 3 / 5

The 2011 review: part Four

And to wrap it up, here are the four last entries of the first semi, all viewed with my critical (but reasonable) eye.

16. PORTUGAL



Homens da Luta - Luta é alegria (Portugal 2011)

Of course you can get a bit confused as to what kind of competition this really is. Is this a forum for the eternal eurosongs? Should you send in material with chart potential? You never know these things for sure. But Portugal has been in it long enough to know it is not the place to send bottom-of-the-league sketches that would be rejected by the local village revue.

There is a possibility that every fragment of this entry is sheer brilliance if you are Portuguese, fluent in Portuguese and pretty aware of Portuguese culture and history. I can assure you that the vast majority of viewers and voters will not understand what goes on, and will not be bothered with these people in strange clothes.

In a cat fair, you enter a cat. In a baking competition, you enter a cake. In a song contest, you enter a song. Take notes, Portugal.

Qualifyer:
Nope. Estonian Kreisiraadio showed that humour with no humour will not work at the ESC. Possibly even a nul-pointer in the end.

My grade: 0/5

17. LITHUANIA



Evelina Sašenko - C'est ma vie (Lithuania 2011)

Just like Armenia's Emmy, poor Evelina has been robbed. She has an excellent voice and a good stage-presence, and radiates not only confidence but also intelligence. So whatever made her accept such a bleak, pompous non-entry is beyond me.

Entries like this one were in abundance during the mid-90's and were one of the main reasons why Eurovision started lacking in popularity and ratings. I can't see why Europe would have changed its mind since then. Lithuania could gladly send Evelina again, some other time, but with a decent song. She would deserve that.

Qualifyer:
No. Not even Disney wants ballads like this one anymore.

My grade: 1/5

18. AZERBAIJAN



Ell & Nikki - Running Scared (Azerbaijan 2011)

I do have a few strong words to say about Azerbaijan's policy of buying their way to success (and their way of ignoring their own composers and sounds) but after Portugal and Lithuania I won't argue anymore as this is one of the strongest songs of all 2011.

It is breezy, atmospheric and emotional and while this couple does not strike you as the most obvious love birds ever (so to speak) they come across as very likeable. My only slight reservation is that I want to hear what this sounds like live. This chorus contains some really difficult passages that are very hard to pull off, and worst case scenario is that this lovely chorus turns into the musical equivalent of a horror movie before three minutes are over.

I am keeping my fingers crossed for that not to happen.

Qualifyer:
Yes. If these two hit the notes properly, then they will sail all straight into the final and make a respectable showing there.

My grade: 4/5

19. GREECE



Loucas Yiorkas Feat. Stereo Mike - Watch my dance (Greece 2011)

The Greeks have been dancing around merrily on the Eurovision stage almost every year since 2004, and of course that is bound to wear you out sooner or later. I have wished for a Greek change of direction for a long time already. Which reminds me, you should always be careful what you wish for.

Stereo Mike and his rap paired with Loucas and all his pathos could have been a good idea in theory, but the pieces of this song won't gel and the final result is surprisingly lacking in dynamics and melody. It is not bad as such, but I don't feel anything listening to this song. It starts, it goes on, it ends, it passes me by.

Qualifyer:
No. Greece has been a steady feature in the final every year since the semis were inagurated, but I think they will have a hard time keeping up with their own reputation this time.

My grade: 1/5

Azerbaijan made a new clip

On the official Eurovision YouTube channel, there has now been a new clip presented to accompany this years Azeri entry. I have a tiny suspicion that the local tourist board has had a say in the choice of scenery.



Ell & Nikki - Running Scared (Azerbaijan 2011)

This is still one of my top contenders for victory on May 14th, but I must admit to liking the original clip better. Not only does this one look too much like the old tourism-friendly previews Turkey made in the 80's to suit their pretty contemporary song, but I still have doubts about the chemistry of this couple.

Them acting like lovebirds on a mountain outing falls flat, I don't find them credible for a second. Do they look good? Yes. Do they look in love? Not at all.

I hope they take that in account for the live performance. If they focus more on singing and less on trying to convince Europe they are smitten by each other, then this one could go very far.

Running Scared for Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan has official presented its entry for Düsseldorf and now we have heard all entries but one. As I listen to the Azeri duet I feel plenty of frustration bubbling under the surface, to be perfectly honest.

When Eldar and Nigar were selected, I was wondering how on earth anyone would make these two look credible as a duo. I found Eldar sweet and likeable while I thought Nigar was overenergetic and slightly annoying.

Now, in the new fashion, this is what they look and sound like:



Ell & Nikki - Running Scared (Azerbaijan 2011)

What I find awfully frustrating about this entry is that Azerbaijan, again, clearly is trying to secure success and hopefully victory and in this quest they pay no attention neither to domestic song writers nor local flavours.

They just take their big purse and go out and shop the best song they can find and have someone dress it up to look international.

It's frustrating that they made Ell & Nikki wipe out most of their personalities in order to suit the song the tv company bought for them.

And most frustrating of all: I really, really like it. I think it is a great song that could very well score well in the final.

What can't life ever be just black or white? A little more easy, please?