ESC 2017: Tobson's thoughts after semi 2

Seven out of ten is not a great result, which ever way you twist and turn. But I insist that the second semi was really tricky to predict and my guess is that it was tight between many songs, fighting it out for the last spots in the final.

So where did I go wrong? I predicted Croatia and Netherlands in the final even though I really don't care for either one of them. I thought Ireland would beat Austria but it ended up the other way around. Then I thought Denmark and Norway would both be out.

I admit that predicting FYR Macedonia was wishful thinking all along. They are probably the reigning champions of ruining their songs on stage. This performance was better than their average but not good enough.

I had a bad feeling about Estonia as we were watching the performance. It felt too cold, too calculated and too disconnected. I still thought the song would be enough and my jaw fell a bit.

Overall the lack of successful staging seems to be a running theme this year. The final will be full of tasteful numbers that are nice but forgettable. Let's hope our eventual winner will be full of personality, colour and movement. That's what I want more of for next year.

Tobson takes a guess: semi 2 in Kyiv

Tuesday's prediction went far better than I would have expected, with the obvious exception of Finland. Instead of a rewarding top ten on Saturday, Norma John found themselves kicked out already before the party had taken off. But nine out of ten makes my prediction pretty good, I suppose.

If the first semi was hard to predict, then semi two is sheer madness. It is full of songs that are fairly similar and fairly equal in strength. Some good songs are taken down by disappointing performances, some mediocre songs are helped by good or at least overwhelming performances. If anyone gets ten countries right in their prediction, I hope they selected their lottery numbers at the same tine.

Again I try to follow the gut feeling and if it is of any use, the following eight will leave us tonight:


SAN MARINO
Goodbye and thank you, Valentina, but you wouldn't believe a song as crammed with key changes as this one could possibly be this static and empty and hopeless.


LITHUANIA
This year's most interesting failure that I in many ways find refreshing. They want so much and are so energetic and in the end of the day it comes to nothing as their chorus couldn't be helped even by a smaller miracle. Intriguing but chanceless.


SWITZERLAND
Personally I am rather fond of this chorus, but the delivery is far too polite and there is too little happening during these three minutes. Unless the juries shower it with love, nobody's going to remember it for long enough to vote for it.


NORWAY
I really warmed to this song myself - especially the quirky verses and the really nifty production details you only notice when listening to it in headphones - but in this tight competition their lack of visual presentation is going to cost them.


SERBIA
Performing first is no problem when you do your thing better than most others - like Sweden did on Tuesday. Serbia's song is nice and impeccably produced but also anonymous and stands out like a penguin surrounded by other penguins.


DENMARK
Will Sweden be the only Nordic country in the final for the second year in a row? Denmark's only hope is that Europe finds the Dutch entry to be too screechy and screamy and self-indulgent. Not impossible - it really is - and find Denmark the better version of the same thing. But I still fear the Danes are losing this battle.


AUSTRIA
Nathan Trent is arguably the most charming performer in this year's contest but the rather disappointing chorus is letting this song down. The question is if any cute staging or glittery moon can compensate for that, especially being sandwiched between two similar entries right at the beginning. I'm afraid not.


MALTA
I have warmed also to this, the most old-fashioned of old-fashioned ESC ballads. Maybe jury and televoters alike will be triggered by a wave of nostalgia and reward this one, but I wouldn't hold my breath for that to happen.


This mean that my ten qualifiers would be - in order of appearance - FYR Macedonia, Romania, Netherlands, Hungary, Ireland, Croatia, Belarus, Bulgaria, Estonia and Israel. This is my mind speaking, not my heart.

I think Croatia is a horrific pile of nonsense but it will stand out. Netherlands is three minutes of dull and soulless harmonising with no melody. Estonia could feel too cold and calculated, FYR Macedonia is only in because Europe managed to recognise Belgium had a great somg despite a shaky performance, Ireland is there because... well. He has a nice balloon.

The performance I am really looking forward to tonight is the happy Belarusians dancing on their boat as well as the terrific Kristian from Bulgaria. I think you will love them both.

ESC 2017: Tobson's thoughts after semi 1

Finland, Finland, Finland. This wasn't supposed to happen. Finland was supposed to fly like a blackbird through to the final and get us a first top ten placing since Lordi. Instead the adventure ended already on Tuesday night. Harsh.

Reliable sources have it Norma John didn't quite shine on Monday night's jury final, and with a song like that I guess most chances are gone unless you have the jurors on your side.

I see only one silver lining here: had Finland had a top placing in the final, the people in charge would have concluded the national final is working well. It doesn't. Someone would need to take a long hard think about how to do things next year.

Apart from the Finnish flop, I got nine songs out of ten right. If you read carefully, you see that I half expected Poland to happen. However, I thought Greece or Australia would be ejected if so.

I stand by that. Australia really didn't shine this time and Greece felt like a real budget charter disco song. Neither one particularly deserved their success. However, I was so pleased for poor Blanche to make it through. She must have been under so much pressure and finally delivered. 

Another one who delivered tonight was Hovig who actually managed to fill his song with quite a lot of energy and attitude. Much better than I expected.

One thing that became painfully clear tonight is that the greatest threat against Italy's victory is Francesco Gabbani himself. On his one-minute-clip tonight he came across as frantic, almost manic. Far removed from the cool and controlled cat he was in Sanremo. He can't afford being this over the top. Someone needs to talk him down, pronto.

Oddly enough, the other big favourite suffers a bit from the same thing but off stage. Salvador Sobral doesn't find Eurovision success hugely important - I don't think that is required - but I think the people who voted for him tonight would have wanted to see some genuine happiness or at least something else than an ironic face. 

But there are still many days left until the final. There is time for many things to happen. But for Norma John the adventure is already over.

Tobson takes a guess: semi 1 in Kyiv

Time again for the hardest, yet one of the most enjoyable, things about Eurovision week. Yes, my children, it is prediction time. And to make things even worse, we have two semi finals that feel remarkably even. The result tonight could look like it had been drawn out of a hat.

Also we have no idea what factors will play a role. I would like to think that what happens tonight is that the ten songs people like the most proceed to the final but other things could matter too. Like diaspora votes. Were the Poles in exiles exceptionally happy last year or are they a new tower of power in the televote? And how much will traditionally good starting positions influence viewers and jurors, if at all?

I'm taking a deep breath and decide not to overthink but to predict with my gut feeling as major guidline. If that is anything to go by, these are the eight countries that will leave us tonight:


MONTENEGRO
Slavko is making a brave effort, representing a not particularly LGBTQ-friendly country with this compilation of various items from gay history. He would deserve a medal but the song does not deliver and will fall through.


ALBANIA
It almost turned into a national trait that Albania enters a big voice in a slightly chaotic soundscape and here they go again. Not really bad but far too pompous. This concept usually doesn't work and it won't work tonight either.


CZECH REPUBLIC
Like a really classy, late 70's or early 80's album track by some really warm and likeable female star with a real sense of music. I like it very much but very much doubt it will stand a chance. Unless the juries have gone bananas over it.


GEORGIA
Another big voice with a decent but slightly boring song that gets overly shouty in the end. Could have been a contender for 9th place tonight with a more favourable starting position, but people are not likely to remember it as a favourite at the end of the presentation.


SLOVENIA
Suddenly a very old-fashioned ballad enters the stage and the audience is left to wonder if it possibly just came in through the wrong door and never was supposed to be there in the first place. People have mentioned late starting position and nice staging but nah - too little, too late to impress.


LATVIA
People who look too deep into their statistics say Latvia must go through because they sing last. Just because it is unusal doesn't mean it can't happen. And after rather a large dose of moody electropop in this semi, I doubt Triana Park are about to impress anyone easily.


ICELAND
I have no idea how it all went so wrong. Iceland was supposed to be a contender and Svala is a fantastic performer, but I fear this is just too cold and distanced to break through to people. Another one that could possibly be rescued by the juries but it doesn't look promising.


POLAND
The trickiest one. Polish diaspora were on fire with their phones last year. Will they be again? And will the juries counterbalance that and keep this song down on purpose? Very much against the spirit of the contest, if so. If Poland gets through, then Greece and Australia can start biting their nails.


This prediction means my ten qualifiers are (in order of appearance): Sweden, Australia, Belgium, Finland, Azerbaijan, Portugal, Greece, Moldova, Cyprus and Armenia. I largely stand by that, but only five of my qualifiers feel absolutely sure: if Portugal, Azerbaijan, Finland, Sweden or Armenia lose out, the universe is broken.

Tobson's Big ESC 2017 Review, part 10

In less than a week from now, the first semi will be happening before our very eyes and it is time for me to wrap up this review of all entries taking part in Kyiv (plus Russia - you find my view on their non-participating entry in part 5).

Despite looking bleak at one point, this year's lineup has proven to be quite a good one and if the juries and the televoters do what they should in the semis we could look forward to a very strong final.

SPAIN
Manel Navarro / Do It For Your Lover

Manel is a charming young lad from Catalonia, armed with a very simple and rather effective song that oozes of carefree days in the sun. The kind of song most people should be able to like at least a bit, I reckon. That means he could collect quite a decent amount of points from the juries, but that is not going to be enough. I wouldn't be surprised if this is the song with the lowest score in the televote this year - it's a song most people can like a bit but at the same time it is nobody's favourite. Who will reach for the phone and actually vote for this?

A potential winner?
No way. Spain - another of those countries with the potential to make it into the top five every year if they only could make a tiny effort - runs a serious risk of ending in the very last place. When will they snap out of it and start sending in entries that could actually score instead? It has been 22 years since Spain last had a top five finish. Wouldn't it be about time to get back there soon?

My grade: 2/5



Manel Navarro / Do It For Your Lover (Spain 2017 preview)

UNITED KINGDOM
Lucie Jones / Never Give Up On You

The UK decided - for reasons best known to themselves - to put their trust into ESC winner Emmelie de Forest and her songwriting skills. After some major nip and tuck and a successful revamp it seems people are getting their hopes up for an unusually high UK placing. In fact, they are getting their hopes up far too much. This is a nice little ballad and Lucie sure can sing, but it wouldn't be fair to place too high expectations on this entry. It's a nice little ballad but not anything more than that.

A potential winner?
No. On a good day and with a fantastic performance, Lucie could possibly make it into the lower regions of the top ten. Which - admittedly - would be a fantastic result for the UK these days.

My grade: 2/5



Lucie Jones / Never Give Up On You (United Kingdom 2017 preview)

22. UKRAINE
O.Torvald / Time

Ukraine entered the ESC like a hurricane in 2003 and very soon they made themselves a place in my heart as one of my favourite countries in the contest. They usually have so much humour as well as really interesting songs and performers. But things tend to go out of hand every time they host the whole thing. They go all political and lose all of the things that usually make them stand out and this little rocker is far below their regular output. It wants to be a big and noisy headbanger but it nothing more than a soft kitten trying to look like a lethal tiger.

A potential winner?
Nowhere near that. Maybe we didn't really want Ukraine to win again under the current circumstances but something stronger than this would have been nice. There will be a certain amount of polite points and that will be it. 20th place?

My grade: 1/5



O.Torvald / Time (Ukraine 2017 preview)

Tobson's Big ESC 2017 Review, part 9

In the first eight parts of this series, I made my inventory of the songs that will have to appeal to juries and viewers alike in order to qualify for the big final. Now let's focus the attention on the songs who already got their ticket for the big thing. The Big Five as well as the host country are already granted a place in the final, so the crucial question changes. "Qualifier" turns into "Potential winner" instead. And not that many of them are, in all fairness, but do keep reading...

FRANCE
Alma / Requiem

What joy and what relief it is to see France actually giving a toss about the ESC again. Almost like in the good old days when France was a constant in the top five every year. They sure have the potential to get constant top placings also now, given their most impressive music industry. Surprisingly, however, is that France seems to have done pretty much the same thing as last year: select a really terrific song and have it performed by someone who isn't really good enough to do it justice. Amir was definitely the weak point in last year's package and early live performances suggest Alma isn't quite Maria Callas reborn. The big question here is what the French delegation will manage to build up for us on stage and whether it is impressive enough to overcome any fausses notes.

Potential winner:
In case Italy for some reason would crash and burn - then why not? This is a truly engaging little song with a strong hook and its very own atmosphere. I keep thinking it will end in fourth place but with a bit of luck it could do even better.

My grade: 4/5



Alma / Requiem (France 2017 preview)

GERMANY
Levina / Perfect Life

Germany really got their act together and not only won with Lena but also presented us with some fantastic and pretty edgy pop in this old contest. Then they completely lost their grip in the most spectacular fashion and ended last in the final in the two last contests. If poor Levina would end in last place, that would set a new ESC record. That is hardly what she deserves: she has a bubbly personality and good voice. She even has an OK song. Another one of those songs that will work perfectly on the radio. But this is the ESC and you have three minutes to impress an audience and convince them that you are the best and that they should vote for you. Levina does not have an easy job come May 13th.

Potential winner:
No. For the fourth year running, the German entry is not designed to break through to people on one listening and there is a huge risk that Levina will end in that dreaded last place. If not, she will at least most likely stay in the bottom five. This should be a wake up call for German television, but if they didn't get the message after 2015 or 2016 - what are the odds they will now?

My grade: 2/5



Levina / Perfect Life (Germany 2017 preview)

ITALY
Francesco Gabbani / Occidentali's karma

Here goes. Brace yourselves. Ever since this song won Sanremo and Francesco agreed to be the Italian representative, I have been dead sure that this is our winner. Unlike most national finals, Sanremo focuses on artistry, singing and a pretty old-fashioned approach to showbiz which - I must admit - felt like relief. No added background vocals to cover up for lacking singing skills, demanding compositions instead of complicated dance routines, camera contact instead of special effects. Remove the gorilla and the tiny dancing sequence and "Occidentali's karma" would still be the best entry by a mile this year. And once the formality of winning is out of the way, we will never have to hear the clumsy ESC edit again either.

Potential winner:
Yes! Yes, yes, yes. This must be the one. If there is any justice in the world, the clever and gifted songwriting should battle down all resistance and storm to victory with an Alexander Rybak kind of margin. I sit back and wait for it to happen. Alé!

My grade: 5/5



Francesco Gabbani / Occidentali's karma (Italy 2017 preview)

Tobson's Big ESC 2017 Review, part 8

The word I used more than any other - I suppose, I didn't actually count back - is "borderline". Semi two has some obvious qualifiers as well as a couple of equally obvious non-qualifiers. But then? This year's trend is radio-friendly pop songs that are nice - and in most cases good - but not extraordinarily personable. It will be really hard to tell who will qualify or not until you've seen them perform. Whoever manages to inject some originality in their song will make it through.

14. BELARUS
NAVIBAND / Historyja majho zyccia

For the first time ever, Belarus decided to rely on their own language. Of course I am positive about a such a decision but what moves me even more is that for the first time in many year, the Belarusian entry seems to be coming from a really genuine place. It is happy, it is cheerful and it feels real. It also feels a bit repetitive before three minutes have passed but perhaps that's a minor detail in the great sum of things.

Qualifier:
In order not to exhaust the word borderline, I am going to say yes. This sounds very different from anything else and the viewers are going to recognise that. If the band manages to maintain the energy of their clip and put that into motion on stage, this could go pretty far.

My grade: 3/5



NAVIBAND / Historyja majho zyccia (Belarus 2017 preview)

15. BULGARIA
Kristian Kostov / Beautiful Mess

Last year's successful comeback seems to have triggered something in Bulgaria and for the second year running they enter a real contender. This time in the shape of teenage heart-throb Kristian, who is the first ever ESC entrant born after the millennium bug. The Moscow-based singer has a strange and almost hypnotic presence, an excellent voice and a beautifully written song. Maybe the verses are stronger than the chorus, but this is a package designed to impress. It is also the third song in this semi co-written by Joacim Persson.

Qualifier:
Yes. And if Italy for some reason would not win, this is one of the possible shock winner candidates. Possibly also the start of an international career for Kristian Kostov.

My grade: 4/5



Kristian Kostov / Beautiful Mess (Bulgaria 2017 preview)

16. LITHUANIA
Fusedmarc / Rain of Revolution

Whatever you'd like to say about Lithuania, nobody can deny that they are fully doing their own thing in this contest. During their never-ending national final the viewers finally grew tired of the obvious favourite and opted for this little piece instead. There are actually many bits and pieces I like here: the energy of the verses, the groove of the backing singers that remained in plain sight at least in the NF, and the crazy presence of the lead singer. This is the most stylish and interesting failure of the year. The musical equivalent of two trains crashing into each other, rolling off a cliff, falling onto a nuclear plant.

Qualifier:
No. Most definitely not. As soon as the singer starts screaming "Yeah-Yeah!" for the umpti-eleventh time all hope is gone. But I totally prefer this to many more polished and less interesting entires.

My grade: 2/5



Fusedmarc / Rain of Revolution (Lithuania 2017 preview)

17. ESTONIA
Koit Toome & Laura / Verona

Estonia delivers yet another polished and engaging pop pastry and one has to wonder how they really do it. How can such a small country be so consistent and send in so many really good songs? This one has an unusual structure, which could be a bit of a gamble. Koit and Laura are delivering well but would need some more passion and chemistry compared to the national final. The song has also been released in several different versions already, which makes me think this team are maybe not as confident as they would have every reason to be.

Qualifier:
Yes, unless the Estonians have thought out some over-complicated stage stunt to drag the attention away from the actual song. Remember last year's card trick? If Belgium runs the risk of being the shock non-qualifier in the first semi, Estonia could be running the same risk here.

My grade: 4/5



Koit Toome & Laura / Verona (Estonia 2017 preview)

18. ISRAEL
IMRI / I Feel Alive

The second semi ends pretty much like the first semi began. Israel seems to have found its way back to a concept that works at Eurovision. Had this been the 1980's, a group of happy backing vocalists would have filled the stage and danced an energetic dance before this song was over. IMRI is a beautiful young man who - very much like Robin Bengtsson - would have deserved something more interesting to perform. The etno touch that comes in by the end is nice and adds a certain flavour but it is nowhere near enough to make this a favourite.

Qualifier:
Yes. Just like Belgium last year, being last in the semi will mean all the difference. This one will easily dance its way into the final and could end up in a much higher position than it deserves in the end. Just like Sweden this year.

My grade: 2/5



IMRI / I Feel Alive (Israel 2017 preview)