Sweden 2012: Tobson predicts

Melodifestivalen - for many the highlight of the entire national finals season - will come to a close tonight as eleven international juries together with the Swedish televoters will determine who will fly the Swedish flag in Baku.

The final line-up is quite a smörgåsbord with a little bit to satisfy most people and rather a good variation of styles and ideas.

What might be lacking to make the perfect party is a little bit of drama. But maybe we will have that before the night is over. These are the songs and these are my grades.

1. DAVID LINDGREN - Shout it out
This is a good opening number that will set the tone for the evening, as this was the year when the modern, dancefloor-friendly songs came in and took over. A reasonably strong track, albeit slightly too repetitive, that clashes with the performer's polite appearance. Feels more like "Grandma's guide to club music" rather than a contender, but if you want a dance song with no sharp edges - this is the one.
Grade: 2/5

2. THORSTEN FLINCK & REVOLUTIONSORKESTERN - Jag reser mig igen
The big problem with sending something like this to Eurovision is that more than half of the attraction lies in the fact that the audience knows the performer, not to mention all the expectation and prejudice pinned onto him, while in Europe nobody will know who Thorsten Flinck is. What is left is a decent song and a strained performance, but the chances of victory for this one should be close to zero.
Grade: 1/5

3. DEAD BY APRIL - Mystery
Monster growling meets boyband chorus in a surprisingly unpolished package (for being Melodifestivalen, at least). The band delivers the song with zeal and attack, the lead singer is excellent, but maybe the clash of styles becames a tiny bit too heavy to handle. After the raw growl, the catchy chorus just feels a bit meek. That was probably not their intention.
Grade: 2/5

4. LISA MISKOVSKY - Why Start A Fire
The big surprise for me is that this soft and delicate piece of pop art à la Kate Bush made it through directly to the final on a first listening. Lisa Miskovsky has some sort of raw quality and likeability that cracks the screen and touches the audience at home. It will be most interesting to see how far these qualities will take her now that the song had more time to impose itself and grow. A possible surprise in the making, I'd say.
Grade: 4/5

5. TOP CATS - Baby Doll
I'm usually not a great fan of rockabilly in Melodifestivalen - I think it is an archaism that takes up space that could be better used by something more in rhyme with its time. Having said that, I must admit to being quite charmed by the Top Cats themselves. The song isn't much to write home about, but the boys deliver it in a most infectuous way and I find myself happily humming along. Still not a contender, but a very enjoyable break.
Grade: 2/5

6. LOREEN - Euphoria
After the rockabilly break, Loreen sounds like the future delivered in a three minute version. Even without the rockabilly, Loreen stands out like state of the art. Tasteful and controlled, progressive yet familiar, modern without pushing anyone away. The winner.
Grade: 5/5

7. ULRIK MUNTHER - Soldiers
Ulrik Munther isn't just a sharp little songwriter and performer, he is also gifted when it comes to publicity and has managed to appear almost everywhere in connection to melodifestivalen, seemingly without exhausting the audience. Well done, using the contest to impose himself further as a talent to be taken seriously for years to come. Surely not a winner tonight - the song isn't really strong enough for that - but very much a winner in the long run.
Grade: 3/5

8. BJÖRN RANELID & SARA LI - Mirakel
Take one of Sweden's most highly profiled authors and poets with a row of awards to his name, place him in the middle of a trashy explosion of 90's eurodisco, add a group of dancing girls and an almost surreal lyric about women being the stronger sex and love leaning backwards like old handwriting. Very much the same case as song #2 but only so much more entertaining, with a sense of madness that would possibly hit home also on an international scale. Not a great song, but an extraordinary package.
Grade: 4/5

9. MOLLY SANDÉN - Why Am I Crying
A neat and clean-cut ballad on the subject of heartbreak and a painful break-up, possibly with a pinch of reality sprinkled over the lyrics (as Molly Sandén recently broke up with long-standing boyfriend Eric Saade). Vocally flawless, but I can't shake the feeling that this is nothing but the less exciting follow-up to Sanna Nielsen's "Empty room", and where Sanna delivered real emotion Molly is just singing.
Grade: 3/5

10. DANNY - Amazing
A brave attempt to restore the word "amazing" in the vocabulary of a eurofan - I thought it would be forever destroyed after Maria Menounos' constant overuse of it at the 2006 ESC. Danny delivers a polished floorfiller with a very graspable hook, but where Loreen is keeping her performance clean and simple Danny bombards us with special effects and a confusing breakdown that blocks the view a bit. I think the song is strong enough in itself and would benefit from less hocus pocus.
Grade: 3/5

So, what to expect? Anything but a crushing victory for Loreen would come as a great surprise, but you can never be too sure. I remember 2005, where the big favourites Nanne and Shirely ended second and fourth with outsider Martin Stenmarck winning the whole thing.

I don't want anyone else than Loreen to win, but I would hope for a tighter race than expected. For the sake of entertainment.

The big question is really who the runner-up will be. Will Danny live up to the pressure this time or will there be a surprise? What about David Lindgren? What about Lisa Miskovsky? What about Björn Ranelid?

It could turn out to be a very entertaining evening, but Loreen must win.