Tobson's Big ESC 2019 review, part 5

What is the only thing that could be better than a semi final? Two semi finals, of course. The new semi proved a success in many ways but it soon became crowded and making your way through to the final became almost impossible.

The 2007 semi final in Helsinki stands out as a real televisual nightmare, a show that never ends and when it finally does it is with a result unlikely to make anyone happy. Meanwhile ten countries were pre-qualified with no sort of quality control what-so-ever. Had the two semi finals system been introduced already in 2007, the EBU would have saved themselves a fair share of viewer outrage and Andorra would have made it to the final.

Apart from Andorra's injustice, it seems the semi final system finally landed with the viewers once the semi was split in two. Suddenly the viewers started engaging with the new formula and the semi final results  seem to have become less arbitrary since 2008.

If you want more of my reviews you will find them in part one, two, three and four.


07 DENMARK
Leonora / Love Is Forever

Songwriter Lise Cabble represented Denmark three times before. Not only has she got a victory under her belt, she never placed lower than 5th. This time she has brought along Anna Rossinelli's formerly unknown Danish cousin, a former figure skater, equipped with a pleasant and happy little ditty. In our troubled times, few lines will sit worse than "Don't get too political" but possibly Europe will be in a good enough mood to overlook that.

Qualifier:
You never know for sure, but Denmark is good at charming its way into the final. My bet is that the trick will work again but you can not be too sure. Anyway Lise Cabble is most probably set for landing outside the top five for the first time.

My grade: 3/5


08 SWEDEN
John Lundvik / Too Late For Love

Once Melodifestivalen was over, I was ready to bet everything I own that Sweden would win in Tel Aviv, secure a seventh win and bumble their way onto the top of the winner table alongside Ireland. Maybe I am not as sure anymore but this is a compelling piece of gospel flavoured pop - a better performed version of Austria 2018 if you so wish - with a chorus you can easily hold on to on a first listening. This is the song most people can like at least a bit and that can carry very far, not least with the jurors.

Qualifier:
Yes, beyond the shadow of a doubt. Perhaps not as obvious a winner as I thought at first but clearly one of perhaps four really strong contenders for victory.

My grade: 5/5


09 AUSTRIA
Paenda / Limits

In general, Austria have done most things right ever since selecting Conchita - what's an embarrassing nul pointer on home ground between friends? - and has provided an interesting range of entries lately. Last year they won the jury voting in the grand final. I wish I could say that success will stay with the Austrians as I really like Paenda and her low-intense presence and personable sound. Unfortunately her entry takes forever to develop into anything and when it finally does it is most probably too little and too late for most.

Qualifier:
No. It would be a big surprise (positive, but still) if Austria would hop out of an envelope this time around.

My grade: 2/5


10 CROATIA
Roko / The Dream

Jacques Houdek is back in town after his low-key, toned-down and quietly tasteful entry of 2017 where he sang a duet with *checks notes* himself. As you do. Now he is the songwriter as well as the artistic coach for young Roko. The boy can certainly sing but is he too polite and unremarkable to fill this bombastic belter with the drama needed?

Qualifier:
Borderline. I doubt this Jacques Houdek tribute act will stand out enough to make a mark, unless the same rainbows and unicorns used in Kyiv are unleashed again.

My grade: 1/5


11 MALTA
Michela / Chameleon

Another one of those nifty and updated pop songs that clearly picked up a thing or two from Eleni Foureira last year. After Cyprus and Switzerland, Malta remains a bit of a question mark. This clearly is a good number - catchy and personable and not too obvious. But will it gel with young Michela? Will they be able to pull this off on stage? And the more I hear it, the more I realise that this is a pile of bits and pieces that don't really fall into any sort of coherent song in the end.

Qualifier:
Yes, I think it is. Hardly a contender for a top ten placing, but Malta will be happy just to qualify. It's been too long.

My grade: 3/5


12 LITHUANIA
Jurijus / Run With The Lions

Lithuania is always a tricky one to predict. My rule of thumb has often been that if I like their entry, they will fail. And when it is dull or bad, it will qualify with ease. That should be very good news to Jurijus, who was one of the kissing backing singers in Vienna 2015, who isn't really doing anything wrong. Unfortunately the song he's been set up with is a really lean effort, another of these songs that could be washed ashore at almost any national final after being rejected elsewhere. Pleasant for as long as it goes on, then instantly forgotten.

Qualifier:
No. How snoozy can you get before Europe votes you out? Jurijus is about to find out.

My grade: 1/5


If you want to agree or disagree with me, please leave a comment or send me a tweet. All the preview clips can be seen here.

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Tobson's Big ESC 2018 review, part 3

Portugal has shown a great deal of bravery in their choices as host nation for the 2018 Eurovision Song Contest. Mainly they have gone for a more organic and less technological approach in the stage design, leaving out the almost compulsory LED screens that have been popular but not always used in the best possible way.

These decisions go very well with the Portuguese winner of last year and it seems that very entry has inspired quite a few of this year's entries. There are much more songs with some sort of message or conviction and fewer of the professional but generic songs we had a few too many of lately. Hopefully the songs and the stage will come together beautifully come May.

Semi 2 is admittedly weaker but also harder to predict. Which is fun in a way. On to the first nine songs in the lineup:

01. NORWAY
Alexander Rybak / That's How You Write A Song

You can say a lot of things about Alexander Rybak but he sure is no coward. No former winner has taken part in the international final since Dana International failed to progress from the semi final in 2011 and even before that it was hard times for former champions. Alexander also has the guts to enter a song that large portions of the ESC fandom absolutely abhor. Many people would like to see him fail, that is the worst kept secret of the year.

Qualifier:
But of course. Yes. This will be bang in the final and get a very good position there as well. What are people thinking? Rybak has many fans and this is also a fun and playful song. A potential winner, even.

My grade: 4/5

02. ROMANIA
The Humans / Goodbye

Romania has never failed to reach the final. This running order suggests there will be a first time for everything. This is a pretty solid soft rock effort - Heart meets a young Bonnie Tyler - with a neat chorus and a bit of a too long build-up for its own good. The sequenced running order is supposed to put every competing song in the best possible light and position but it feels more like the producer decided to throw Romania under the bus here.

Qualifier:
Borderline. Romania qualified with weaker songs than this in the past.

My grade: 2/5

03. SERBIA
Sanja Ilić & Balkanika / Nova deca

Serbia is trying to turn back the clock to a time where the Balkan countries happily mixed folk music with more contemporary pop rhythms to great effect. It's nice to meet up with this genre again but it is a shame the actual song is not stronger than this. The performance is unfocused and confusing and the song never takes off properly.

Qualifier:

No, unless they manage to reinvent themselves properly and better the performance a great deal. And then the song is still pretty weak.

My grade: 2/5

04. SAN MARINO

Jessika feat Jenifer Brening / Who We Are

San Marino seemed to possibly be on some sort of right way with their messy national final until the whole process turned out to be about who could put in more money than the others. Music had very little to do with anything in the end, which the entry itself demonstrates in a very efficient way. It stays bland until the moment Jenifer brings her messy rap into the picture and makes the whole package implode.

Qualifier:

No. Not in a reasonable world anyway. But this is a semi where almost any song could emerge as a surprise qualifier.

My grade: 1/5

05. DENMARK

Rasmussen / Higher Ground

Ten years ago Latvia somehow managed to make it into the final with a group of people ridiculously dresses up as pirates. Perhaps as a tribute to the Pirates of the Sea, Denmark selected another piece of masquerade attributes and sent in a troupe of various vikings in desperate need of credibility as well as hair conditioner. There's a decent little chorus in here somewhere but not enough to find mercy in my book.

Qualifier:

Borderline. People often tend to like Danish entries even when I find them lacklustre, so I wouldn't be surprised if it is a yes for this one.

My grade: 1/5

06. RUSSIA

Julia Samoylova / I Won't Break

Same suspense scenario as with Romania: would it actually be possible for Russia not to qualify? What we have is a decent but not spectacular entry with a good hook but a singer that seems to be totally incapable of delivering any of the singing required. This will be three very interesting minutes come Lisbon.

Qualifier:

Borderline. Strong support from a number of friendly countries but most other countries would have been discounted at once with an entry like this.

My grade: 1/5

07. MOLDOVA

DoReDos / My Lucky Day

After a bunch of slower mid tempo entries with little sparkle or nerve, Moldova rolls onto the stage like a hysterical avalanche with their bouncy and aggressively positive sunshine of a song. How could you not love this? How could anyone resist? So much kitsch forced into a confined space you expect the whole thing to blow up at some point.

Qualifier:

Yes. People will laugh and love this. But I would never had guessed these lyrics were written by a native English speaker.

My grade: 3/5

08. NETHERLANDS

Waylon / Outlaw in 'em

Just like Alexander Rybak is Eurovision Royalty after his second place as part of The Common Linnets in 2014. It is pretty cool of him to enter something so different from his former entry as well. Possibly he bit off a bit more than he can chew as the song really aspires to have way broader shoulders than Waylon himself can pull off. 

Qualifier:

Yes, most probably. Not sure how well it will fare in the final but at least it will be there.

My grade: 2/5

09. AUSTRALIA

Jessica Mauboy / We Got Love

One of the big reasons for Australia to be present in the contest is supposedly to show the UK how easy it could be to send in really convincing and powerful entries if you just make an effort. That's nice - if a bit patronising - but Australia is not really living up to that if so. Whatever sort of edge I expected them to have is more and more absent for every year. Jessica is a good performer but this pop song is surprisingly unspectacular. Good but tame. If Australia is to stay put I expect quite a lot more from them.

Qualifier:

Yes. Juries love Australia. We noticed that extra clearly last year.

My grade: 3/5

This is the third part of my 2018 review, why not check out part one and part two as well?

Tobson takes a guess: semi 2 in Kyiv

Tuesday's prediction went far better than I would have expected, with the obvious exception of Finland. Instead of a rewarding top ten on Saturday, Norma John found themselves kicked out already before the party had taken off. But nine out of ten makes my prediction pretty good, I suppose.

If the first semi was hard to predict, then semi two is sheer madness. It is full of songs that are fairly similar and fairly equal in strength. Some good songs are taken down by disappointing performances, some mediocre songs are helped by good or at least overwhelming performances. If anyone gets ten countries right in their prediction, I hope they selected their lottery numbers at the same tine.

Again I try to follow the gut feeling and if it is of any use, the following eight will leave us tonight:


SAN MARINO
Goodbye and thank you, Valentina, but you wouldn't believe a song as crammed with key changes as this one could possibly be this static and empty and hopeless.


LITHUANIA
This year's most interesting failure that I in many ways find refreshing. They want so much and are so energetic and in the end of the day it comes to nothing as their chorus couldn't be helped even by a smaller miracle. Intriguing but chanceless.


SWITZERLAND
Personally I am rather fond of this chorus, but the delivery is far too polite and there is too little happening during these three minutes. Unless the juries shower it with love, nobody's going to remember it for long enough to vote for it.


NORWAY
I really warmed to this song myself - especially the quirky verses and the really nifty production details you only notice when listening to it in headphones - but in this tight competition their lack of visual presentation is going to cost them.


SERBIA
Performing first is no problem when you do your thing better than most others - like Sweden did on Tuesday. Serbia's song is nice and impeccably produced but also anonymous and stands out like a penguin surrounded by other penguins.


DENMARK
Will Sweden be the only Nordic country in the final for the second year in a row? Denmark's only hope is that Europe finds the Dutch entry to be too screechy and screamy and self-indulgent. Not impossible - it really is - and find Denmark the better version of the same thing. But I still fear the Danes are losing this battle.


AUSTRIA
Nathan Trent is arguably the most charming performer in this year's contest but the rather disappointing chorus is letting this song down. The question is if any cute staging or glittery moon can compensate for that, especially being sandwiched between two similar entries right at the beginning. I'm afraid not.


MALTA
I have warmed also to this, the most old-fashioned of old-fashioned ESC ballads. Maybe jury and televoters alike will be triggered by a wave of nostalgia and reward this one, but I wouldn't hold my breath for that to happen.


This mean that my ten qualifiers would be - in order of appearance - FYR Macedonia, Romania, Netherlands, Hungary, Ireland, Croatia, Belarus, Bulgaria, Estonia and Israel. This is my mind speaking, not my heart.

I think Croatia is a horrific pile of nonsense but it will stand out. Netherlands is three minutes of dull and soulless harmonising with no melody. Estonia could feel too cold and calculated, FYR Macedonia is only in because Europe managed to recognise Belgium had a great somg despite a shaky performance, Ireland is there because... well. He has a nice balloon.

The performance I am really looking forward to tonight is the happy Belarusians dancing on their boat as well as the terrific Kristian from Bulgaria. I think you will love them both.

Tobson's Big ESC 2017 Review, part 6

The second semi is really too close to call this year and the rehearsals and final live performances will be crucial when it comes to who will qualify or not. I think that's something we say every year, but it is more true than ever now as so many of the songs are really similar in style and even in quality.

Something like six qualifiers feel solid while the final four places would be up for grabs and then the final details will be decisive. Anything that would make anyone stand out will be most important. Even standing out in a bad way could be good.

05. ROMANIA
Ilinca feat Alex Florea / Yodel It!

Talent show yodeller Ilinca teamed up with aspiring rock star Alex in this schlager meets rap meets Heidi on a mountain top meets tons of cheese meets pure madness. It could be Alex is throwing away his chances to ever be perceived as credible again but the gamble could be worth it. This breathtakingly wacky entry is precisely what the ESC needs this year: someone who is distinctive and utterly bonkers at the same time. Nobody will forget Romania this time around, that is more than sure.

Qualifier:
Yes. Not only because Romania is yet to fail in a semi final but also because this manages to be awful and adorable at the same time in a pretty irresistible way.

My grade: 4/5



Ilinca feat Alex Florea / Yodel It! (Romania 2017 preview)

06. NETHERLANDS
OG3ENE / Lights and Shadows

It's not what I would have expected, but maybe the world will wake up one morning to find they miss Wilson Philips so much they need a revival and will celebrate anything that resembles the original group at all. If that happens, these sisters will go far and knock the rest of the competition out. If not, they will struggle. This entry showcases a lot of lovely harmonies but fails big time in the songwriting department. In short, there is no song going on here and that is a problem in a song contest.

Qualifier:
No. Too weak and too meek. And isn't it time for the Dutch to ditch country music and come up with something new?

My grade: 1/5



OG3ENE / Lights and Shadows (Netherlands 2017 preview)

07. HUNGARY
Joci Pápai / Origo

Deep down, this is another one of the many entries this year that is tailor-made to suit the airwaves. It is slick and it is contemporary, but it lacks a bit of build-up and has very little of a climax anywhere. Luckily for Joci, he has his very ethnic sound that sets him apart from the others. He is also the Nano-type of this lineup - someone whose back story helps him to stand out and be remembered - but it is not an easy song to keep interesting for three minutes on a stage.

Qualifier:
Yes. It should be distinctive enough to beat some of the more generic contenders, but how far will it carry in the final?

My grade: 3/5



Joci Pápai / Origo (Hungary 2017 preview)

08. DENMARK
Anja / Where I Am

I wasn't that impressed at first, but Anja is doing a good job vocally and this chorus has been growing. This is easily the best Danish entry for me in many, many years but then again it doesn't mean it lot. Denmark has developed a passion for songs that are easy and polished, void of personality and that leave no trace. We are still moving in this territory and as always I am left wondering if there is any kind of more demanding music being made in Denmark? Some noisy rock? Experimental hardcore trance? Punk? And could we please have a bit of it at the ESC?

Qualifier:
Borderline. Another one of those that are totally impossible to call before you know how all countries perform on stage. This could as easily land in 7th place as in 13th.

My grade: 3/5



Anja / Where I Am (Denmark 2017 preview)

Semi 2: 13 Denmark / Soldiers of Love

It's no secret. For years I thought the Danish entries were lacking most things I demand of my ESC entries. They had no scent, no stains, no passion, no emotion. Like kitchen utensils made of plastic, they were practical but not exciting. Last year in Vienna Europe finally agreed with me and Denmark was rejected in the semi.

Very much like the Irish, it seems Denmark has been largely unable to pin down the very reason their song flopped and instead decided to send in something fairly similar to see if it would possibly work this time.

The result is an almost shockingly anonymous song that manages to go on for three minutes without a single interesting thing happening in it. The guys performing it look so excited and one wonders why. Maybe they've never been to Stockholm before.

Qualifier:
No. The Danes have had a strange ability to qualify with their non-songs in the past but I hope the spell was broken once and for all last year. And give us something with a bit of passion, please.

My grade: 1/5



Lighthouse X / Soliders of Love (Denmark 2016 preview clip)

December 15: Vivian & Gry

You could say an awful lot about Denmark in the Eurovision Song Contest but I think we could safely state that being particularly progressive never were their thing.

The average Danish entry is easily accessible, understandable and familiar. Only on very few occasions did they offer us the unexpected or surprising and not always with the best outcome.

In 1985, the regional juries thought it best to repeat the winning formula from the year before and sent Hot Eyes across the water to Gothenburg with another pleasant and safe song. I always liked that one and won't bash it.

But the obvious one for me in the 1985 Danish final is this smashing mother-daughter act. Gry was a well-established star and had already represented Denmark two years earlier, while mother Vivian had tried to win national heats since before Gry was born.

Surprisingly edgy to come out of a mid-1980's Danish final, complete with a pretty avantgarde dance routine. I would give anything to know what the international juries would have made of this one.



Vivian & Gry / Vi ska leve (Denmark NF 1985)

Denmark and the bad surprise

When I wrote my preview review I was pretty convinced Denmark would dance into the final with ease, just thanks to being catchy, happy and easily accessible. By now I start to realise I'm pretty alone in assuming that.

Not that I don't really care what others predict - I prefer clinging to my own conclusions - but let's just say I'm amused that everybody suddenly grew tired of this ever-smiling Danish style of Eurosong. Why now?

I thought the style was tiresome already back in "Twist of Love" was a typical song written only for Eurovision and with no chance of a life outside the contest. "All Night Long" was even more tedious but made it to the final anyway. This year, for me, at least felt a little bit more real and enjoyable.

It does seem to follow the Danish pattern, though. Find a formula, stick to it for years, and when it seems to be working its best then suddenly the whole thing collapses. Denmark did the same after their last victory - two years later their package didn't work and flunked mercilessly in 2002.

Just like "Haba Haba" in 2011, this song feels like it is too long. By the end it just keeps going and going, and maybe Denmark is in for a bad surprise. It's been a long time since they last failed in a semi final.

I still think the risk is even greater for another country that grew used to doing well. Unless Greece can work up a close to life-threatening amount of radiation, their ballad should be in real danger of elimination. Maybe both Greece and Denmark will have a sweaty night before the tenth envelope has been opened in the first semi.



Malene - Tell Me Who You Are (Denmark 2002)

Semi 1: 13 Denmark

Sometimes when a song gets selected for the ESC you start liking it more than you did when it was just a potential entry in a national final. This is probably because you get the song singled out and you suddenly pay more attention to it than you did at first.

Denmark's entry did the complete opposite in my ears. At first I thought it was OK, but then I found it a most disappointing winner. Square, unimaginative, typically happy-but-pointless like so many other Danish entries have been lately.

Then we had all the songs for Vienna presented in the right order and suddenly something happened. Something clicked between me and Danmark and suddenly I find myself humming along happily, without getting annoyed.

This lineup really needed something along the lines of what the Danes had to offer this time around. I have to just accept the sad fact that my own favourite at Dansk Melodi Grand Prix - the sublime Hotel A - probably would have sunk without a trace among the other mid tempo efforts while these lads with a slightly unhealthy Beatles complex manage to stand out.

Qualifier:
Yes, for sure. Easy, uncomplicated and a relief since it doesn't try to be clever or impress you or demand anything complicated from you. Just sit back and relax and let the Danish mood flow all over you.

Grade: 3/5



Anti Social Media - The Way You Are (Denmark 2015)

Denmark takes a pick for Vienna

I've been busy writing stories about the runners-up through Eurovision history and am yet, I think, to write a single word about the 2015 edition. Time to kick start things, good people out there. This Saturday, Denmark will select their song for Vienna and I decided to have a listen to the songs they have to choose from.

In all fairness, the Danish final and I have had a somewhat strained relationship lately. I often found the songs too formulaic, too tailor-made for competition with no decent chance of a life outside the bubble. Disappointing for a country with as lively a music scene as Denmark.

So - what do I find this year? Pretty good songs, I must say. And a wider variety than in recent years. This is my verdict based on the studio versions found on the official Grand Prix page.

01. Sara Sukurani / Love Me, Love Me
A pleasant opener with a touch of Bollywood and a whiff of the style that above all Greece mastered to perfection at the ESC in the past. Lacks a bit of the intensity it would have needed to stay in the viewers' minds and stand out as a real contender - slightly too tame for its own good - but not bad.
Grade: 2/5

02. Tina & René / Mi amore
Gosh, have we heard this one before? Five years ago it represented Denmark in Oslo, twelve years ago it would have been a Friends album track, twenty-five years ago it would have been recorded by any slightly modern-sounding Swedish dance band. It is still good, it is still efficient, but isn't the audience out there ever going to grow tired of this style? If not, a potential winner.
Grade: 3/5

03. Marcel & Soulman Group - Når vejer krydses
An attempt to bring a funky feel into the competition and normally I would applaud that ambition. Unfortunately this is more than anything else a genre that was annoyingly popular in Melodifestivalen some ten years ago: an exercise in style that is competent but nothing more than that. Soul without soul. Rapidly forgotten.
Grade: 1/5

04. Cecilie Alexandra - Hotel A
A breath of fresh air in this quirky and perky little pop song that echoes "Joe le taxi" as well as "Somebody That I Used To Know". My personal favourite in its studio version but I fear it could be a bit too feather-weight to break through to the audience listening for the first time. Will need a very strong and driven performance to work on a live stage - can this young singer deliver?
Grade: 4/5

05. Andy Roda - Love Is Love
Like so often when people attempt to make dance songs in the ESC, this one starts out as an elegant and interesting verse that builds into a pretty disappointing lack of chorus. Had it been the other way around - an anonymous verse builds up to a firework of a chorus - this could have been a contender. If Andy Roda is as charming live as he seems in the video presentation he could possibly make it work. I just wish he had more to work with.
Grade: 2/5

06. Julie Bjerre - Tæt på mine drømme
I must admit it right up: as I'm no big fan of neither "New Tomorrow" nor "Only Teardrops" it makes me happy to hear Lise Cabble come up with something that sounds more interesting in my old ears. Catchy and easily retainable - and it would be nice to hear some Danish on the ESC stage again - but perhaps not dynamic enough to stand out in the crowd.
Grade: 3/5

07. Anti Social Media - The Way You Are
Another exercise in style: this time a pseudo-Beatles feel that again leads up to a disappointingly square and flat chorus. The boys are good, however, and just as I'm about to give up on the song it starts growing on me and morphing into something more infectious and attractive. That last minute could possibly be enough to catapult it into quite a high ranking in the end.
Grade: 3/5

08. Anne Gadegaard - Suitcase
Pretty similar to song 04 in style - laid back and relaxed girly pop that is light but at the same time has a certain bite and substance. Possibly encumbered by the fact it is up against the slightly similar (and arguably stronger) "Hotel A" and the question mark that is whether it's possible to make this sound as appealing live as in its studio version.
Grade: 3/5

09. Babou - Manjana
This is a genre the Danes never grow tired of: the pretty generic song dressed up to look and sound slightly exotic. Catchy with a happy party vibe to it but at the same time oh, so trivial. That means nothing as an even more trivial ditty won the Danish final last year. A potential winner with slim chances of heavy rotation in my headphones.
Grade: 2/5

10. World of Girls - Summer Without You
If these girls are meant to be the Danish Spice Girls - why do they remind me more of Suntribe (Estonia 2005)? The song is good but ordinary and sounds more like an album track or possibly the third or fourth single more than the big hit it would want to be. Not bad but hardly instant enough.
Grade: 2/5

My prediction, then? My prediction is that Denmark will stick to their tradition of ignoring the songs I like and fall head over heels in love with something I don't think much of. That would be good news for Babou who could start packing his bags at once.

But I'm staying positive. My hope is that Cecilie Alexandra will unleash her inner stage beast, eat that camera like it was breakfast cereal and deliver her excellent little song with all the cool and confidence it takes to convince juries and tv-viewers all over the country.

Tobson predicts:
1. Cecilie Alexandra, 2. Babou, 3. Anti Social Media

Runner-up: Denmark 2001

Ecstatic after bagging their first victory in 37 years, Danish television derailed ever so slightly and lost a bit of focus while preparing for the 2001 Copenhagen final.

Never mind if things were good as long as they were big. The biggest arena ever with a huge audience and a huge stage unfortunately resulted in a show that often looked like it was shot in a flight hangar where a large restless crowd kept walking about rather than focusing on the competing entries.

The only song to benefit from this setting was the home entry, a pleasant if not violently outstanding tune with a typically wide Danish smile and a singalong chorus that was easy to retain. Catchy and happy. Inoffensive.

Under normal cirucumstances, the Danes could have had a nice fifth place with this song. Now, being performed last on the night in front of an audience that suddenly goes from barely awake to screaming enthusiastically, it came across very well on-screen. Surely that must have affected the voting masses at home.

A deserved 2nd place?
Hardly. I am not saying the Estonian victory was fully deserved either, but both these entries came across well and scored accordingly, while better songs looked less attractive and failed to impress. I just wish songs would matter more in a song contest, that's all.



Rollo & King - Never Ever Let You Go (Denmark 2001)

Borrow like the Danes do

Many people seem to think Tanja from Estonia may have borrowed just a tiny bit too much from Loreen's 2012 Eurovision entry. First of all, I don't think these two songs are too similar. Germany's entry from last year was a much more obvious copy of Loreen if so.

You can also borrow quite a lot from other songs without anyone of importance reacting too strongly. There have been some rather spectacular occasions where people have borrowed famous fragments or complete melody lines without any kind of action taken against them.

Or how about this one? When the ESC was held in Gothenburg in 1985, the home entry went down well both with the audience and the juries and ended in 3rd place. No wonder since it sounded and looked professional, with a catchy hook and a good dance routine.



Kikki Danielsson - Bra vibrationer (Sweden 1985)

A Danish team got really inspired and decided to borrow a couple of elements for their own entry for the 1986 national final. The melody line was a bit similar, so they borrowed some or the arrangement. Or most of it, actually.

And as for the performance, wouldn't it be nice to have a male and a female dancer, just like the Swedes? Or why not the same dancers? If they are good once, they must be good twice. And that the female lead decided to choose a pink outfit similar to Kikki's? Pure coincidence, surely.



Lise Haavik - Du er fuld af løgn

Finalist: Denmark

The time has come - at the very end of this presentation of songs - to make myself impossible in this year's home country. Sorry to say it, but however I twist and turn this one it doesn't look good from any angle.



Basim - Cliché Love Song (Denmark 2014)

In a year full of ballads and midtempo anything as happy and clappy as this is likely to get a whole bunch of points in the end but this is really no dream winner in my book. Let me try and explain why.

Being silly is not a problem, I'm never averse to silly songs, but this cheerfulness feels fake and plastic. Basim isn't much of a singer and even less of a dancer and the whole thing is as a groovy as an old Soviet cement mixer.

Also, the stereotype lyrics really get to me. This pretty average guy sees the most beautiful girl in the world and decides he will have her, assuming she is just up for grabs, that she'll just be happy for the attention. And he only wants her for her great looks, this isn't an ode to her personality or intelligence or anything. Haven't we heard that enough times already? Really?

I just wonder what happened to Denmark? They used to be the kings of quirk at Eurovision, and this song desperately wants to be quirky, but it is just square, flat and stupidly heteronormative.

And catchy, I'll give it that.

Potential winner: On a really bad day, yes. It will perform as number 23 in a field of 26 songs and will have massive home support. I also have a sneaky feeling DR could put ballads around it in order to make it stand out more. But for now I will pretend like this isn't going to happen.

My grade: 2/5

Be brave, Danes!

Dear Denmark,

you are just about to select your entry for this year's Eurovision Song Contest. I must say you have done really well for the last few years, being last year's winner and this year's host country and all, so you hardly need any advice from anyone like me.

But still, I'd like to share some thoughts with you before your final starts. You see, you have meant so much for me through the years. Already as a very young fan, I singled out Denmark as one of the countries I liked almost without exception.

This was in the happy 80's where - admittedly - there was a distinct taste of plastic to most of your entries, but in the 80's we loved plastic. I loved you for it. I still do.

Lately, however. Last ten years or so. I don't know how to put this in a kind way, but as I consider us very close friends it is my duty to say it anyway, so here goes. Lately, your songs haven't meant a lot to me. They are nice and polished. Often catchy. Often pretty inoffensive too.

I wouldn't mind seeing a bit more of an edge, Denmark. Some real emotion. I'd like to see you go out on stage, pull a face, do something unexpected and run the risk of not being liked. I know you'd like to, I know you have it in you.

I know you have it in you, because many songs in your national finals through the years tell me that you do. Here are two examples - from the extravagantly fabulous Sanne Gottlieb - to inspire you, to convince you it can be done and show you that I am truly a friend and nothing else.

A friend who takes the liberty of expecting a little bit more from you.



Sanne Gottlieb - Uden dig (Denmark NF 2000)



Sanne Gottlieb - Tog jeg fejl? (Denmark NF 2001)

Finland: anybody watching?

This weekend, Sweden's national final started its long run while Finland's selection ended in the big UMK final. Yle pulled out all of their know-how and some of the best tricks in their magic box and presented a really nice show.

Finnish television doesn't do a lot of entertainment and out of everything on offer, the UMK final is state of the art. It looks good and ambitious and contains some really nice interval acts and pre-filmed material. A very nice package. And yet almost nobody is watching.

While Melodifestivalen managed to score an impressive 3 364 000 viewers with a good but not outstanding first semi, only 452 000 tuned in to see Softengine win in Finland.

Copyright: Yle, photo by Tomi Mikola

UMK is a high profile project for Yle. Eurovision is much loved since forever among the Finnish audiences. 452 000 viewers is a disastrous outcome. Disastrous. How do you explain something like this?

For some reason, Yle insists on showing UMK on their second channel. Recent figures show that TV2 is a channel in free fall with generally very poor ratings. The Eurovision selection should be taken onto the first channel at once.

The current format of UMK is not attractive for the viewers. For three weeks, singers and songs are shown without any action taking place what-so-ever. Then there are a further three weeks of heats and semis where very few songs are voted off and where the same songs keep playing and playing without any major drama or excitement.

A selection process needs excitement and all these warm-up shows seem to turn the audience away instead of enthusing them. Yle needs to rethink.

Either you can do what Estonia does. Strip away everything that is surplus. Put the songs in the centre of attention and have two straight-forward semis where the number of songs is efficiently reduced in time for the final.

Or you do what Denmark did. When the semi finals are not good or interesting enough - you scrap them. Denmark went back to a one-night extravaganza and used up their entire budget on making one sensational show for the audience to love.

Given the state of things in Finland, I would suggest the latter. Get 12 songs - try to get a star or two to enter as well - and show them in a sassy, sexy, magnificent live show broadcast on TV1. The UMK final shows it can be done, so do it now.

Correction: The figure I had seen was incorrect - the real rating is 423 000 viewers.

2013 prediction: How wrong was I?

Yesterday I had a stab at predicting the outcome of the Eurovision final in Malmö and looking back on it now, I realise I wasn't completely wrong.

Out of 26 countries, 14 placed according to my prediction. Another five found themselves only one placing away from what I predicted. I can live with that. Then there were some spectacular miscalculations, of course.

FRANCE - I liked Amandine's raw and tempestuous performance, but this kind of song is hard to sell to a mainstream audience. I appreciate when people try to break out of the most common formats, but maybe there are limits as to how far you can go without putting people off.

FINLAND - Despite all the publicity and a very energetic appearance, Finland only scored a mere 13 points. None of which from its neighbour countries. Keeping the masses entertained does not automatically mean they will reward you with points.

GERMANY - I felt like I ruined the party for everyone yesterday not thinking Cascada had a chance of surpassing fourth place. In retrospect, my prediction was almost hysterically over-optimistic. Probably the miscalculation of the year.

GEORGIA - The G:son-penned love ballad failed to set the scoreboard on fire this time. While thinking the song and performance deserved more, I'm relieved the cheap trick didn't work out.

MALTA - I didn't think Gianluca would hit home the way he did but I was happy to be wrong. For a while, when he was not too far behind the top scorers, I secretly hoped for Malta to be the unexpected twist that would suddenly collect a bunch of twelvepointers and sail to victory.

IRELAND - I did get a bad feeling during Ryan's performance and thought to myself that this could be the one generic modern pop song too many for the audience, but I never in a million years thought this one would be left in last place. Completely undeserved.

DENMARK - Of course I saw the Danish song as a potential winner, but this is the second year that the biggest favourite wins by quite a comfortable margin. Also, the winner is a very typical safe old-school eurosong, and I would have hoped for the contest to have moved on a bit from that. It would have been so nice with a daring and more original winner. Like Netherlands, like Norway.

But all in all a great show with great songs and some really fine performances. Just possibly maybe I like the songs better than the final result, but you can't have it all, can you?

ESC 2013: First thoughts after the final

Well, my prediction from earlier today went so-so. I wasn't completely lost in the woods, but just like with Alexander Rybak in 2009 I managed not to predict the obvious winner.

Basically because I really hoped for something else.

Don't get me wrong, I am really happy for the Danes and the Danish song is not a bad one, but I was hoping for a surprise. And something more modern, something more daring. The Danish entry was safe all the way and I somehow don't feel that's the winner we would need at this point.

One positive thing is that Only Teardrops might have a hit potential that runner-up Azerbaijan would have lacked. Another good thing is that a huge record market like Germany recognised the quality in a song like Hungary's. Also more demanding songs like Italy and the Netherlands made top ten.

Maybe next year, the more difficult songs will get to set the tone and we will have a winner more along the lines of that.

SVT made a fantastic job and delivered a glimmering show, at least up until the voting. There were too many small annoying technical mistakes during the voting procedure and how experienced producers could allocate so little time for the points, allowing the show to overrun like that, is a mystery.

Petra Mede, however, sailed like a queen through it all. Beautiful, funny, reliable. This will be a hard show for Denmark to follow.

More thoughts tomorrow after a good night's sleep. What do the rest of you think?

Results:
1) Denmark 281 points, 2) Azerbaijan 234, 3) Ukraine 214, 4) Norway 191, 5) Russia 174, 6) Greece 152, 7) Italy 126, 8) Malta 120, 9) Netherlands 114, 10) Hungary 84, 11) Moldova 71, 12) Belgium 71, 13) Romania 65, 14) Sweden 62, 15) Georgia 50, 16) Belarus 48, 17) Iceland 47, 18) Armenia 41, 19) United Kingdom 23, 20) Estonia 19, 21) Germany 18, 22) Lithuania 17, 23) France 14, 24) Finland 13, 25) Spain 8, 26) Ireland 5.

Semi 1: eight out of ten is not bad

After a stylish first semi final with no visible hiccups (not any I could detect anyway) we stand here with the first ten qualifiers of the year.

Estonia, Denmark, Russia, Ukraine, Netherlands, Lithuania, Belarus, Moldova, Ireland and Belgium.

When I predicted the results earlier today, I got eight right out of ten. That's pretty good. I finally ticked the boxes of Croatia and Serbia, who failed to convince the audience in the end. I don't miss them an awful lot, but I feel sorry for Croatia losing out on four consecutive occasions.

But the two finalists I had not foreseen, then? What can I say? 

I take pride in not having predicted Belarus. Not only do I find the song weak and cheesy, I also thought the performance was strained and forced and anything but charming. Everyone else must have seen something that was invisible to me.

Lithuania has made a nasty habit of failing when I like them and qualifying when I think they deserve to fail. I'm not going to cry "diaspora vote" until I see the complete scores from tonight's voting, but it's surprising that a performance as flat as this one could make the final cut.

On the other hand, I am really happy about Estonia and Belgium making it. They were my personal favourites tonight and I doubted that either one of them would enthuse the masses. Especially Roberto Bellarosa was so touching when he almost tore up his little plastic flag with pure happiness.

I also felt for the Dutch, since they were the last country to be announced. Of course. Had I worked for the EBU, I would have saved them for last as well. They have not been in a final since 2004, and extra tension is good for any old show.

Now it is time to recharge the batteries a bit and think about how to predict the second semi. Not at all sure who I'll settle for there. But I save that problem for later.

Semi 1: these are my ten qualifiers

I don't really know why this is, but every year when you are supposed to predict the results you get hit by a surreal feeling of seriousness. But its just a game, isn't it? My guess is as good as yours, et cetera?

Well, there is still some sort of pressure. I wouldn't want to stand there with only four correct countries in the end when everyone else predicted everything right.

So here are tonight's contenders and my final prediction as to who will make it and who won't.

1. AUSTRIA Shine / Natália Kelly
I always thought this would be a very good opening number for the semi final. Perhaps it still is, but it comes at the cost of being eclipsed by everything that comes after it. The song is pleasant and Natália does nothing wrong, but the audience is highly unlikely of remembering this particularly well when the phone lines open.
Qualifier: No.

2. ESTONIA Et uus saaks alguse / Birgit Õigemeel
If this ballad and the Cypriot ballad could swap places in the running order, there would be no doubt in my mind that Birgit and Estonia would make it. This is elegant, sober and very well performed. Not to mention my favourite ballad in this semi. I want to believe in this.
Qualifier: Yes

3. SLOVENIA Straight Into Love / Hannah
Modern, slick and club friendly - but for some reason these qualities seem to matter very little when people cast their votes. Even if Hannah hits all the notes correctly, this is not the kind of song that usually breaks through and a qualification would be a great surprise.
Qualifier: No

4. CROATIA Mižerija / Klapa s mora
Many will find this dull and old-fashioned but a large section of the audience will also hear competent singing and a competent melody line. I'm pretty convinced that quite a few jury members will belong to that latter category.
Qualifier: Yes

5. DENMARK Only Teardrops / Emmelie de Forest
Will the biggest pre-contest make it through the semi? Of course it will. Denmark missing out at this early stage would be more drama than anyone could handle on a Tuesday night.
Qualifier: Yes

6. RUSSIA What If / Dina Garipova
A clean and plesant melody line, a good vocalist and tons of cheese in the lyrical department. Quite far from being one of my personal favourites, qualification is still pretty inevitable.
Qualifier: Yes

7. UKRAINE Gravity / Zlata Ognevich
All this talk of Zlata being carried by a giant and possibly overacting her performance in rehearsals made me worry a bit at first, but there is enough of brilliance and elegance in this song to make it sail safely into the final either way.
Qualifier: Yes

8. NETHERLANDS Birds / Anouk
Suddenly people started having doubts, thinking that the Dutch curse will continue and that Anouk will fail. That is not going to happen. This is the first really good and credible Dutch entry for more than ten years, it will get rewarded for that.
Qualifier: Yes

9. MONTENEGRO Igranka / Who See feat Nina Žižić
One week ago I predicted these party bunnies in the final but I think I changed my mind again. This is a big hit in several ex-yugoslav countries, but even if they shower them in points it won't be enough unless everyone else also fall for this. I would not mind if they did, but I don't see it happening.
Qualifier: No

10. LITHUANIA Something / Andrius Pojavis
I thought I would like this more when I just heard it and didn't have to see the confusing preview presentation. It didn't help, it just showed me how underproduced it is. How little bite or attitude there is. Lithuania surprised me by qualifying in 2011 and 2012. I don't think they will surprise me this time.
Qualifier: No

11. BELARUS Solayoh / Alyona Lanskaya
The more I hear this one, the more I think it sounds like a jingle from an ice cream commercial more than a pop hit. And I can't shake the feeling that it even leaves poor Alyona cold. I still can't see who would vote for this, especially not if they happen to sit in a jury room.
Qualifier: No

12. MOLDOVA O mie / Aliona Moon
I wasn't too sure about this ballad at first, but it kept growing and growing. Just like Aliona's dress is going to tonight. A good performance that also stays in the visual memory is never a bad idea in this contest, a trick that Moldova has mastered well in recent years.
Qualifier: Yes

13. IRELAND Only Love Survives / Ryan Dolan
The first uptempo song that is modern, dance-friendly as well as user-friendly and easily accessible, performed by a fresh and likeable young man accompanied by a healthy amount of drumming and dance beats. The Irish should have nothing to worry about.
Qualifier: Yes

14. CYPRUS An me thimase / Despina Olympiou
Elegance, temper and talent can take a weak song quite a long way. The televoting masses have short memory and in an unfair world Cyprus could win precious ballad votes and take Estonia's place in the final. If so, I promise to be happy for Despina, but her song doesn't quite deserve it.
Qualifier: No

15. BELGIUM Love Kills / Roberto Bellarosa
This is one of my biggest favourites in this semi final but it seems my sentiments are not mirrored by the people predicting the outcome in Malmö. I don't care - I think this chorus and Roberto's nervous intensity will break through to enough people.
Qualifier: Yes

16. SERBIA Ljubav je svuda / Moje 3
The Serbian trio rip and tear their little song to bits and the little hooks and ideas scattered around the chorus get a bit lost in this shoutfest. And yet I think this will make the final cut by looking and sounding familiar enough in combination with being the last country in the presentation. I would prefer Montenegro or Slovenia in the final, but I don't think I will have my way.
Qualifier: Yes

So these are my ten qualifiers tonight: Estonia, Croatia, Denmark, Russia, Ukraine, Netherlands, Moldova, Ireland, Belgium, Serbia.

If I get eight songs right, I will be content. Nine and I will be happy - unless the one I'm wrong about is Anouk. Ten right and I will celebrate until the second semi.

What do you think, folks?

ESC 2013: who is our winner, then?

Two weeks before the big eurovision final and right before the rehearsals start, I managed to finish my big review of the entries in their preview versions.

At some point somebody asked me in a comment who would get my full five-pointer out of these entries and the answer is that nobody got a rating of five.

No less than thirteen countries (one third of the line-up) got four points out of five possible, and for me that describes this year perfectly. It is a good year with many strong contenders but it lacks those complete standout, runaway victory-type of entries.

Which is arguably a good thing. With a bit of luck we could get a tight, nerve-wracking, intense voting sequence that will keep us in suspense up until the very last country has cast its votes. It has been ten years since we had a voting like that. It would be about time.

What about my thirteen four-pointers then? Well, they can be divided into a number of sub-categories:

Personal favourites

I don't really believe that Estonia, Greece, Hungary or Malta will have any real chance of winning the big final, they just happen to ignite something in me. Nobody would be happier than me if I was wrong but I don't think I am.

The potential surprises

I was there to see Marie N win the 2002 final. I remember the sound of everyone's jaws dropping as Riva won for Yugoslavia in 1989. Sometimes the unlikely will happen and then Finland, Belgium, Ireland or France could break through to the audience in an unexpected way and start collecting points aplenty.

The gourmet entries
Italy's song is perhaps too slow, Norway is too modern and has too sharp edges and the Netherlands sounds more like a classy film soundtrack than a eurovision winner. Don't forget that sometimes quality stands out and wins through despite not being tailor-made for this contest. Think Molitva. Think Yohanna.

The crowd-pleasers

Denmark is the biggest favourite to win and has a most easily accessible formula with its singalong chorus and tin whistle. Ukraine has a very engaging performer and always knows how to tweak the last little drop of entertainment out of their songs.

Conclusion?

Do I have to say something clever to sum this up now? Before any rehearsals have started or anything like that, I will just state that my dream winner - the one I think could be the best choice for the future of the contest - would be Norway, Netherlands or Italy. Sharp edges and hit potential for the win.

Ask me again in a week and I might have changed my mind completely. Bring on the rehearsals.

Semi 1: 05 Denmark

If bookmakers and eurovision fans were always right, we could save ourselves some time, money and effort by cancelling this year's final and just deem Denmark the winner already now. But they're not always right, are they?



Emmelie de Forrest - Only Teardrops (Denmark 2013)

Ever since her 1995 classic "Fra Mols til Skagen", I have been a  big fan of Lise Cabble and her songwriting. She provided plenty of quirky and jaunty pop numbers for the Danish finals through the years and I admit to being a bit disappointed when she finally won again in 2011. A Friend In London were fine but not my cup of tea. And Lise Cabble had surely written better songs than that.

This year's entry is stronger, a lot stronger. Emmelie is a good performer with a personable voice and the stage element with the tin whistle stays in your mind.

Yet, I can't shake the feeling that this is a typical fan favourite song that flirts with the good old days of Eurovision. It is good, but it is the song that will crush all competition and get a runaway victory like Rybak or Loreen?

It doesn't feel like a winner, somehow. Maybe it will come Saturday night, but at this stage I don't think this is the one.Especially I don't think this eurosong-by-the-numbers would have a successful life outside the ESC, which I think a perfect winner should.

Qualifier:
Yes, without the shadow of a doubt.

My grade: 4/5