ESC 2023, semi 1: Tobson takes a guess

It never gets easier, does it? You'd think that watching five-hundred years of Eurovision would at some point turn prediction into a piece of cake but that's where you are wrong. You can never fully know how the winds will blow at that final, crucial moment when everything is decided.

This year, there are also two major factors there to make prediction even harder (even though nobody needed it to be harder than it already was).

First thing: the juries are gone and will not be back until the final. Tonight the viewers are completely in charge of who gets the ticket for the final or not. It is easy to think that would favour simple songs with instant appeal but in recent years, the viewers often gravitated towards more demanding entries - far more so than the juries.

Second thing: it is always harder to predict a semi final with fewer songs.

Every year there is always one or two songs that turns out to have placed a lot better than anyone expected - maybe 12th in the semi instead of second last. When you only have fifteen entries, that unexpected support could suddenly mean a tenth place and a spot in the final. Tiny marginal coincidences could decide more than a few finalists tonight.

Tonight there is also a third thing, really. This is a very strong semi final and more than ten songs would deserve to qualify. It's unfortunate we will lose something good tonight and instead get a few fillers on Thursday.

So, who will it be? I am totally convinced that NORWAY, PORTUGAL, SWEDEN and FINLAND are in. ISRAEL is more of a show than a good song but will surely make the cut too. Then we head into question mark territory.

AZERBAIJAN has a breezy, Beatles-esque feel to it but remains the country's weakest effort to date. IRELAND suddenly has fans but the song must be too formulaic and tired in the end. SWITZERLAND is weak but has a polished performance and a good vocalist. I would leave all three out but am no longer as sure as I was.

The NETHERLANDS has a great song but dubious vocals, if they get it wrong tonight they're out. CZECHIA sounds great in studio but could turn into just another entry if they have bad luck. MOLDOVA is very much doing their own thing, I think they are in but the whole thing gets a bit repetitive before it is over.

CROATIA is the mad one, the one you'd think a viewing audience would swallow whole. But is it too messy? And will lovers of the weird find themselves rooting for Finland in the end?

Then it is my darlings MALTA, SERBIA and LATVIA. I want them all in the final but can see them all fail. Latvia is an excellent but demanding piece of music but I fear they will be the best song left in the semi (again). I thought Serbia were safe but it seems to pass over a lot of heads I thought would love it. But I can't be the only one hooked on Malta's sunny and playful saxophone beat?

Given all these circumstances, the ten finalists will be: Norway, Malta, Portugal, Croatia, Israel, Moldova, Sweden, Czechia, Netherlands and Finland.

Out: Serbia, Latvia, Ireland, Switzerland, Azerbaijan.

This is all impossible anyway, isn't it? I wish you could all see my face melt tonight when Ireland is the first qualifier they call out. 

I hope I am wrong about Serbia and Latvia (but not at any cost, mind you). I will tweet my way through the whole thing, so maybe I see you there.

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