A Swede who lives in Finland and who is lost in Euroland - the wonderful world of Eurovision
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Saturday, May 13, 2023

ESC 2023: Tobson takes a final guess


Usually it is so hard to write this final prediction for the final but this year it feels really easy.

You see, I have dual citizenship so I am going to win tonight. Finland vs Sweden. I honestly can't see any other ending to this year than a battle between those two.

In one corner we have Sweden, making a bold move by entering not only a former winner but an ESC monument in the shape of Loreen. An artist who shaped the idea of what an ESC entry could be like for years after her victory.

"Tattoo" is nowhere near as groundbreaking as "Euphoria" was but is still a devastatingly well written pop gem with an excellent hook and a terrific soundscape. Loreen would be a well deserved double winner.

My only problem with Sweden winning is that Melodifestivalen isn't really in brilliant shape at the moment. "Tattoo" was very much alone in the line-up, surrounded by pretty basic songs written by a small pool of people seemingly determined to write many songs instead of shaping a few songs into perfection.

In the other corner, there is Finland. The incredible story of a complete underdog that miraculously found a liberal dose of self-confidence and turned its depressing national final into a bubbly hit factory full of great ideas and new talent.

But can we be so sure it will only be about those two? Isn't there anyone else who could emerge a surprise winner? France could. Italy could. 

If the old world order breaks down, even Spain could possibly win and take revenge for all locally flavoured songs that were ignored through the years. 

But seriously. No. It's Finland or Sweden. Maybe there could be a surprise jury winner - think North Macedonia 2019 - but in the end Finland or Sweden will battle it out.

Who will it be, then? I do think Loreen has the upper hand and is the more likely winner. But I would never forgive myself if Finland won and I hadn't predicted it. So my final bet is Finland.

My attempt att predicting the top 26 looks like this: 01. Finland, 02. Sweden, 03. Italy, 04. France, 05. Belgium, 06. Slovenia, 07. Ukraine, 08. Australia, 09. Lithuania, 10. Spain, 11. Norway, 12. Portugal, 13. Czechia, 14. Austria, 15. Israel, 16. Estonia, 17. Armenia, 18. Moldova, 19. Serbia, 20. United Kingdom, 21. Croatia, 22. Albania, 23. Cyprus, 24. Germany, 25. Switzerland, 26. Poland.

This is such a shot a dark, most of this prediction is happy guessing. Most it apart from the top two. (Note how my prediction would also give Flanders and Slovenia their best results ever.)

Have a fun night and see you on the other side. Or on Twitter, feel free to join the fun also there.

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