ESC 2023, semi 2: Tobson takes a guess

Let's be frank and not beat around the bush: Tuesday's semi was an awful lot stronger than the one we are offered today. Indisputable fact.

Isn't it a shame that the two semi finals turn out so uneven in quality? It really is. 

Is there something that could be done about that? That's a hard no.

The producers already have so much power in sequencing the running order. If they were also to divide the contestants into semi finals - based on such fluid criteria as what is a good song or not - then we would find ourselves on thin ice. Leave at least a few things to chance also in the future.

It's not like you won't be entertained tonight. There will be good songs and stuff to enjoy, but there is no potential Saturday night winner in sight. 

The biggest problem trying to predict these songs are that they are in many cases very similar in quality and therefore interchangeable. What people at home will vote for in the end is anybody's guess. What you are reading right now is my guess and it reads as follows:

I'd say AUSTRIA, AUSTRALIA and SLOVENIA are certain qualifiers. I think I dare count BELGIUM into this group since it is very distinct in regards to both sound and vision. 

Then there are the girls with ballads. LITHUANIA should sail through easily. It is maybe a bit square in its studio recording but lives and breathes on stage. Having a backing group obviously singing live is also an advantage in this year of extensively used pre-recorded backing vocals. ESTONIA should go through on vocal talent and intensity but you can never be totally sure.

ARMENIA and GEORGIA both have a somewhat artsy approach. Quality entries but are they accessible enough on a first listen? ALBANIA is basically Family Feud interpreted through song but will there be too much pathos at once?

DENMARK has a radio friendly song that sounds great in your headphones but will they manage to keep it interesting for three minutes on stage? CYPRUS raises similar questions as he is more interesting than the song he's been set up with. GREECE has a talented teenager whose future should be bright but who was possibly sent into the international limelight a bit too soon. I hope fate is kind to Victor Vernicos tonight.

ICELAND has great energy but unfortunately has a pretty weak composition. So does POLAND but this kind of dumb summer staple has an annoying habit of hitting home sometimes.

SAN MARINO and ROMANIA both give us some sort of rock vibe, but to no avail. Both songs feel unfinished (for want of a better word) and should pass the voters by.

Based on this, my guess is that the following ten songs will qualify tonight: Denmark, Armenia, Estonia, Belgium, Greece, Slovenia, Georgia, Austria, Lithuania and Australia. 

Out: Romania, Cyprus, Iceland, Poland, San Marino and Albania.

On Tuesday, I predicted eight out of ten qualifiers which is in no way extraordinary. I could get even less tonight: suddenly Cyprus hits a nerve (never underestimate eyes as pretty as his), Albania breaks through (never mess with an emotional Albanian family) or Poland finds the right key (unlikely but still) and then I stand there corrected.

As always I will hang out on Twitter, feel free to call me out on my prediction shortcomings over there.

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