Semi 1: eight out of ten is not bad

After a stylish first semi final with no visible hiccups (not any I could detect anyway) we stand here with the first ten qualifiers of the year.

Estonia, Denmark, Russia, Ukraine, Netherlands, Lithuania, Belarus, Moldova, Ireland and Belgium.

When I predicted the results earlier today, I got eight right out of ten. That's pretty good. I finally ticked the boxes of Croatia and Serbia, who failed to convince the audience in the end. I don't miss them an awful lot, but I feel sorry for Croatia losing out on four consecutive occasions.

But the two finalists I had not foreseen, then? What can I say? 

I take pride in not having predicted Belarus. Not only do I find the song weak and cheesy, I also thought the performance was strained and forced and anything but charming. Everyone else must have seen something that was invisible to me.

Lithuania has made a nasty habit of failing when I like them and qualifying when I think they deserve to fail. I'm not going to cry "diaspora vote" until I see the complete scores from tonight's voting, but it's surprising that a performance as flat as this one could make the final cut.

On the other hand, I am really happy about Estonia and Belgium making it. They were my personal favourites tonight and I doubted that either one of them would enthuse the masses. Especially Roberto Bellarosa was so touching when he almost tore up his little plastic flag with pure happiness.

I also felt for the Dutch, since they were the last country to be announced. Of course. Had I worked for the EBU, I would have saved them for last as well. They have not been in a final since 2004, and extra tension is good for any old show.

Now it is time to recharge the batteries a bit and think about how to predict the second semi. Not at all sure who I'll settle for there. But I save that problem for later.