A Swede who lives in Finland and who is lost in Euroland - the wonderful world of Eurovision
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Saturday, March 12, 2011

Melodifestivalen - Tobson predicts

After ten years on the road, it seems a certain fatigue has installed itself within the Melodifestivalen team. Not only has there been more than a fair share of hiccups during the tour, but the songs selected don't really measure up either.

The final line-up contains quite a lot of candy for the domestic audience, but not all that money songs suitable if a victory in Düsseldorf is what SVT wants.

There is hope, though. Eleven international juries (in France, Greece, Ireland, Croatia, Malta, Norway, Russia, San Marino, Germany, United Kingdom and Ukraine) will judge the songs, in order to give the televoters a hint of what Europe what enjoy.

And with the new rules - if the juries have one runaway favourite, the outcome of the televote will have very little, if any, impact on the results.

Which also makes this final very hard to predict. But here goes.

1. DANNY - In The Club
One of the red hot favourites to win, pop star Danny puts on a very slick show in the first song of the evening. Many people see a potential winner in this one and maybe they are all right and I am wrong. I just find the chorus too square and repetitive, and I'm not wild about the eternal flirting with the camera. Possibly an OK choice, but not the one I would select.

2. SARA VARGA - Spring för livet
A sweet little bossanova in Swedish that will stay in the domestic charts for a long time to come, touching a string with all the people who loved Lisa Ekdahl's debut back in 1994. Pleasant, but wasted on a european audience.

3. THE MONIKER - Oh My God
Happy. Bouncy. Psychedelic. Like Beatles on a trip back in 1967 or so. Very divisive - some people love it, some people hate it. If Sweden (and the juries) find themselves in a funny mood, this could be a surprise winner, but I still think that is highly unlikely.

4. BROLLE - 7 Days And 7 Nights
No. No. No. Brolle can be as popular as he wants to be, this would be a disastrous choice. Oldfashioned and relies far too much on Brolle's own charm. This is where the juries should step in and put the foot down.

5. LINDA BENGTZING - É det fel på mig
Energetic and easily recognisable. For the domestic audience, that is. I can not understand how so many songs lacking in international potential managed to find their way into the final. And Linda, who can't keep her act together in a Swedish semi, would fall apart under the pressure in Düsseldorf.

6. NICKE BORG - Leaving Home
How about a rock ballad? Well, why not? I was just surprised that this singer, coming out of a rather hard and edgy band, came up with such a gentle little song with no sharp edges at all. Pleasant, but not a contender for the top points tonight.

7. SWINGFLY - Me And My Drum
Finally a song I could support all the way - Sweden has never sounded anything like this in the ESC. My only objection is that the record sounds so much better than the live version with its many voice effects, but maybe that could be mended in time for Germany?

8. SANNA NIELSEN - I'm In Love
Sanna is my outsider for tonight. She would definitely deserve better songs this one, but boy - can she sell what little she's got. She has that certain something that could make any song work. If the juries and televoters would like something safe and old-fashioned, this is the one.

9. THE PLAYTONES - The King
Like Brolle, but worse. Rockabilly and a Baseballs-ripoff wrapped into one. If this is the King, I shout: Republic now!

10. ERIC SAADE - Popular
This one will be popular indeed, the question is how popular. For the second year running, young Saade is better than his song, but this time around he is more convincing and has a determination you seldom see among Swedish singers.

So what do I think?

On a good day, three modern songs will fight it out and the victory will go to Eric Saade, Swingfly or Danny (mentioned in the order I prefer them).

On a slightly less good day, these three will divide the points between them and see themselves beaten by a bright and shiny Sanna Nielsen gathering enough points from everywhere to win through.

On a very bad day, one of the six other candidates win and then Sweden will struggle in the semi again.

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