I'm going to try to make up for the recent lack of updates here by running a special theme. Ever since the draw was established, people have analysed and over-analysed the importance of these magical numbers and jumped to some rather far-stretching conclusions already.
It is clear to me that the draw is far from unimportant. In order to make you a potential winner, you need to come in at the right spot where people will notice you and where you will stand out in a good light.
It is also clear that some parts of the running order are better than others. If you sing closer to the end, the televoting masses are more likely to remember you than if you sing as number six.
But I don't believe in the importance given to specific numbers. That it would be better to be #17, while #16 would be worse off.
A song performed as #2 on the night never won a final, that is true. There must be some kind of explanation for that. And I suppose the biggest reason is the short attention span of the audience - there is such high focus on the first song and the viewers/voters can't keep that up. That means that the second song needs to be very strong and convincing to stand a chance.
If your pop song gets drawn at #22 after a row of sleep-inducing ballads, that is of course and advantage. But that has more to do with those ballads and less with #22 as such.
You get my point, right? There is no such thing as an impossible starting position, and there are no automatically great positions either.
It should be good to sing first or last - given the extra attention and how that makes you stand out in the presentation - but song #1 has only won three times (and not since 1984), while the last song has won six times (and not since 1989).
So let's not over-analyse this running order. I realise it made it easier for some and harder for some, but what really counts is how people deliver on stage come May. (But it would be a bit of a thrill to see red hot favourite Sweden drawn as #2 in the final - that would add some tension to the mix.)
And then the theme of the day: a number of songs that might (or might not) have lost their battle due to bad luck in the draw.
I think you've hit the nail on the head, the draw is over analysed. It is only useful from a broad perspective, but at that macro-level it is really influential.
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