ESC 2014: my ten qualifiers from semi 2

Predicting the first semi final went really well, for better than I anticipated it would. I nailed nine out of ten and even if the tenth one was a song I had deemed chanceless rather than borderline - I really didn't see San Marino coming and honestly speaking, neither did you - I was still happy for that country.

Tonight's semi final seems even harder to predict. There are some definite qualifiers but also loads of borderline entries. And to make it even harder, throughout this week it seems a couple of songs I would have considered safe earlier have slipped into the borderline area too.

Just like on Tuesday I am labelling each song to be either safe, borderline qualifier or out and by the end you find my final pick.

01 MALTA
Firelight / Coming Home
Tonight's opener is a likeable little song that most people will enjoy but reports suggest that it comes across as unspectacular on-screen. The same was said about last year's Maltese entry though, and that worked excellently in the end. Safe.

02 ISRAEL
Mei Finegold / Same Heart
I considered this safe for a long time but now I'm not so sure anymore. It's most divisive, lots of love and lots of hate from the fan community, and it hasn't got an easy spot in the running order. Should make it into the top ten but if there is a shock non-qualifier this year - this is the one. Borderline.

03 NORWAY
Carl Espen / Silent Storm
Quiet and bombastic at the same time, this melancholy man from Norway is sure to collect points aplenty from the jury and will surely enthuse a number of televoters as well. Will have a difficult final fighting for the same points as Azerbaijan but tonight qualification should be peanuts. Safe.

04 GEORGIA
Mariko & The Shin / Three Minutes To Earth
This is just too odd - five different songs crammed into one and generously sprinkled with syncopations and unforeseeable harmonies. Wild and crazy and actually rather refreshing that somebody dares send in anything as different as this. Should be chanceless but Georgia has had a way of qualifying with unusual sounds in the past. Borderline.

05 POLAND
Donatan & Cleo / My Słowianie - We Are Slavic
Watch out for curves as Donatan has abandoned the stage altogether and Cleo is left to hold the fort together with a gang of voluptuous Polish beauties. Bound to upset a viewer or two but this is just fun and tongue-in-cheek, with more than one idea borrowed from the heydays of Army of Lovers. Safe.

06 AUSTRIA
Conchita Wurst / Rise Like A Phoenix
Enter the most controversial performer in years, perhaps since Dana International, and a section of the audience will gasp for breath. They shouldn't, though. This is the best song of the semi and there will be more than enough sensible people out there to recognise this. Safe.

07 LITHUANIA
Vilija Matačiūnaitė / Attention

A weak song is a weak song, at least most of the time. But Vilija has a rare determination, an energetic performance that distracts just about enough from the weak song itself, a great dancing partner and - most importantly - several countries where lots of Lithuanians live voting tonight. Don't count her out just yet. Borderline.

08 FINLAND

Softengine / Something Better

The song alone would be worthy of a spot in the final, but it is always a risky business sending very young and inexperienced performers to a huge event like Eurovision. Lead singer Topi needs to overcome his shyness and look into the cameras or he will remain a stranger for the audience. And nobody votes for a stranger. Borderline.

09 IRELAND

Can-Linn feat Kasey Smith / Heartbeat

Pleasant but unexciting, a piece of radio-friendly pop overloaded with Irish accents. It sounds good on a first listening but will it be anyone's favourite? Borderline.

10 BELARUS

Teo / Cheesecake

Where do I begin? There are so many things that are wrong here and yet somehow the whole thing turns out pretty enjoyable in the end. Teo is an entertainer and the rhythm is engaging and the clumsy lyrics could even make the entry more memorable for some. Borderline.

11 FYR MACEDONIA

Tijana Dapčević / To The Sky

Being one of few true dance tracks in this line-up should work to its favour, but FYR Macedonia has a history of messing up their stage presentations. Tijana's own sister - and backing vocalist tonight - should know as a messy performance made her own 2008 entry narrowly miss the final. Borderline.

12 SWITZERLAND

Sebalter / Hunter of Stars

Perhaps the San Marino of this semi but I doubt it. This song wants too much and goes in too many directions, and so does Mr Performer himself as well. Likely to be overexcited and over-performing tonight and then it becomes obvious what a half-cooked song this really is. Out.

13 GREECE

Freaky Fortune feat Riskykidd / Rise Up

They are young, they are happening, they are cute and they hop on a trampoline. The song is repetitive but very catchy and Greece always makes it to the final. Safe.

14 SLOVENIA

Tinkara Kovac / Round And Round

How I wish it wasn't like this. Tinkara is good and delightful performer and this song is really quite good. It just completely fails to stay in your memory once it is over. I'd love for this to qualify but can't see it happening. (Not that I predicted Maja Keuc either. What do I know?) Out.

15 ROMANIA

Ovi & Paula / Miracle

In my book this is by some margin the weakest entry of the entire semi. Not even a song as much as a collection of special effects and isolated hooks and events. No holograms or round pianos in the world can change that fact. It will work, though. In the semi, at least. Safe.

If there were a lot of borderline entries in the first semi it is nothing compared to this one. Out of fifteen entries I only feel two are really sure non-qualifiers (and one of those I'd love to have in the final but it won't happen). 

The ten songs I predict will make it tonight are: Malta, Israel, Norway, Poland, Austria, Lithuania, Finland, Belarus, Greece and Romania. Finland is wishful thinking. Lithuania is based on friendship votes alone. Belarus is totally interchangeable with FYR Macedonia. But this is my final guess anyway.

The show begins at 21:00 CET and can be watched through the official ESC site as well as through several national broadcasters, for instance Sweden and Finland.

Nobody's favourite but mine, part 4

Are you ready, folks? Here comes a fourth selection of songs I really liked through the years even though I have a nagging feeling I could be the only one. The former three episodes suggest that I am not alone at all, which leads me nicely onto the first song of the bunch.



Patricia Kraus - No estás solo (Spain 1987)

I never understood why anyone wouldn't like this one. It's original, energetic and pretty modern for it's time, and Patricia could be one of the coolest females ever. She is wearing a leather corset and enough rouge to suggest that she fell headlong onto the makeup-table only seconds before she had to enter the stage, still manage to look like that is the most natural thing ever.

It does take forever until she gets to a chorus but that's not the end of the world, is it? Clearly worth more than the ten points it had to content itself with.



Helen & Joseph - L-Imhabba (Malta 1972)

Malta had a tough start in Eurovision - for their first two entries they sang in their native tongue and ended in last place on both occasions. I can sort of see what the juries meant in 1971 but this adorable little gem would have deserved to be showered in points. The line where they sing about freaks, Hell's Angels and hippies is worth a top ten placing alone. Not to mention the more than impressive body language of the conductor during the instrumental break. And extra points for fashion, of course.



Park Café - Monsieur (Luxembourg 1989)

For the last few years that Luxembourg were in the contest they more seldom commissioned potential hit songs from French record labels - or did nobody want to provide them anymore? - and turned to local talent instead, mostly with pretty moderate success. Park Café entered something as unusual as a song inspired by a recent hit movie - "Who Framed Roger Rabbit?" - and provided a far more jazz inspired sound than the audience was used to and the juries remained largely unimpressed.



Telex - Eurovision (Belgium 1980)

Belgium is clearly one of those nutty countries that you just don't know what to expect from. When you least expect it they will do something really crazy and unexpected and most of Europe will sit there with their jaws hanging between their legs, not knowing what hit them.

For some reason, synthesiser pioneers Telex - Belgium's own Kraftwerk but with a sense of humour - decide to throw themselves into competition with a song about the contest in question and a pronounced desire not to be understood and go through the voting without a single point. The stunt failed, the Belgians managed to collect a minor number of points and even avoided the last place, and the trio managed to thoroughly confuse their own fans in the process. What remains is a cute little masterpiece that is sure to make you smile. And when you're done smiling, check out their cover versions of Ça plane pour moi, Twist à Saint-Tropez or Rock Around The Clock. Genius!



Mrs Einstein - Niemand heeft nog tijd (Netherlands 1997)

When Dutch tv selected these feisty females internally they were presented like a group that were sure to rock the boat in a big way in Dublin. They sort of did. Not only were they nicknamed "Old Spice" - which I think was pretty witty - but most people wouldn't believe their ears. A full-tempo rip-off of Paul McCartney's Bond theme Live And Let Die that would leave people out of breath as well as in serious doubt of what the Dutch were thinking.

Only I really, really like it. I think it is fun and energetic and far superior to most entries the Dutch sent in during those eight long years they constantly failed to qualify. Old Spice for the win!

ESC 2014: And the audience went boo

Just like I wrote yesterday, the Russian delegation feared the Copenhagen audience would boo their performance and that is exactly what happened. When the hosts read out Russia as one of ten finalists the audience in the hall gave a very vocal sign of not being pleased.

My personal point of view is unchanged. You do not boo people at Eurovision. It is not civilised behaviour. But I'd like to develop my thoughts a bit further anyway.

One common argument in defence of the Tolmachevy Sisters is that they are very young girls and hardly responsible for anything the Russian leaders would do or not do. A wild guess is they have not harassed many minorities or acted particularly hostile towards any neighbours countries. Why would they deserve this treatment?

Unfortunately you cannot disassociate yourself from the country you represent. If you agree to represent Belarus in a competition, you are also giving your silent approval to the dictator in question. If you sing for Azerbaijan you are signalling that their poor human rights record doesn't really bother you. And these twins have to bear the burden of representing the most controversial country in Europe right now.

Ironically enough, the audience reaction is counter-productive in many ways as it suits the Russian narrative perfectly. The Tolmachevys are clearly selected to represent the pure Russian youth and sound Russian values and when they get booed by the depraved and immoral west it just underlines that the ESC-critical voices were right the whole time.

It is a strange situation that Russia take part in a contest they themselves heavily criticise - calling it a sodomy contest and so on - and then send in innocent young singers to take a beating for the team.

Of course the ESC is open for all active EBU members, but what do you do with a country that seems to participate against their own wishes only to use the contest as a domestic propaganda tool? No doubt that there will be more booing in the final and nobody gains anything from that. The Tomalchevy Sisters least of all.

Semi 1: everybody loves a surprise

Everybody loves a surprise or two at the Eurovision Song Contest and just when we all thought everything was going like on rails, the biggest surprise in years just hit us right over the face as San Marino made it to the final.

That crazy little Valentina Monetta actually managed to make her way into the top ten of this semi and for the first time the tiny tiny state will take a spot in the big Saturday final.

I did tweet during the show that Valentina again proved not to be good enough for Eurovision - not bad but not good enough - and I still stand by that comment. Others, who didn't make the cut tonight - performed better than she did. They sang better and had stronger presence, but "Maybe" is also clearly the best out of the three songs Valentina and Ralph Siegel made together.

I think San Marino will be shark feed on Saturday and one of the strongest candidates for nul points but that matters very little now. You would need a heart of solid rock not to be happy for the Sammarinese delegation finally making it.

The other big surprise for me personally was that I managed to predict nine out of ten qualifiers correctly. Apart from San Marino I nailed them all - I thought about leaving Russia out or putting Belgium in but left it the way it was. Sometimes a bit of gut feeling is all you need.

I'm a bit sorry that Estonia's ambitious performance lost out and I will miss a bit of Latvian quirk in the final, but I'd be a fool not to feel very pleased after this first semi.

The show was nice and the stage looks fantastic, even if the director sometimes can't resist the urge of showing the stage rather than the performances. I'd like to cut the scripts a bit shorter here and there (and preferably leave out some heteronormative jokes about which one of the male hosts the upcoming performer fancies and stuff like that) but on the total it was a very enjoyable show.

If DR keeps it up like this, nobody will remember that 2001 fiasco come Sunday. Well done.

ESC 2014: Boo for Russia?

According to an article in PinkNews the Russian delegation in Copenhagen fears that they will be subject to hostility when they appear in Eurovision this year. There are fears that the audience will boo or otherwise show their discontent with Russia's current politics.

There is the situation in Ukraine as well as recent anti-gay legislation, but there have also been numerous cases of Russian officials slandering the contest, calling it a sodomy contest and other less appealing things.

For me personally, this is a hard nut to crack. At this very moment I am strongly opposed to many things that go on in Russian politics for obvious reasons. I think the Russian delegation is very right to be worried - people are not happy with the situation and are likely to be vocal about it.

But how do you make it clear you are protesting against Russian politics and not against Russia as a nation or against the Russian people?

It is unfair towards the Tomalchevy Sisters who are unlikely to be any driving force behind neither Russian minority treatment nor Russian foreign policies. But a song in a song contest like this doesn't just represent itself but also the country it is connected to.

I'd like to question Russia's foreign songwriters more than the singers: are you comfortable representing Russia under the present circumstances?

But I also insist that songs should be judged on musical merit alone. If a song is good, then it is good. If a performance is brilliant, then it is. At some point you have to disconnect these two things.

And I really hope the Russian entry won't get booed in Copenhagen. For the simple reason that booing is never an OK thing to do. Booing is for fools. If you dislike something or disagree, you can remain silent. Don't clap, don't cheer, don't boo.

Cows go moo. Fools go boo. And that's what I have to say on this matter.

ESC 2014: These are my ten qualifiers from semi 1

Here we go again. Time to put your money where your mouth is. Stuff like that. Out of sixteen hopefuls ten will make Saturday's big final and the other six must return to the hotel room, pack their belongings and go home. You know the drill.

At some point, I thought fewer songs in a semi would make it easier to predict the outcome. Instead there are so many tiny factors at work. One of the weaker entries could pick up consistent small points from most countries and end up making the final cut. This new jury system could tempt a jury or two to keep down one or two favourites at the very bottom of their ranking, which could have a real impact in the end as well.

A couple of songs should feel absolutely safe tonight (unless we have one of those complete surprises that shakes the contest at its very foundation and that I am secretly very fond of), some should be equally sure non-qualifiers and then there is a bunch of borderline entries. Be aware that if the voting is tight, who ends in 9th place or in 11th could be completely arbitrary. But here is my contribution to the guessing game.

01 ARMENIA
Aram Mp3 / Not Alone
The big bookmaker favourite got a totally incomprehensible spot in the running order. It's not a particularly good opening song and would have needed a number of songs before it to showcase how original it is. Could result in a lower score than anticipated tonight but Aram should not be at risk. Safe.

02 LATVIA
Aarzemnieki / Cake To Bake
This could have been the jaunty pause from all the more serious entries - somebody who takes the whole contest with a laugh and sings something happy and unpretentious - but just like Armenia the Latvians will suffer from their starting position. There is no need for a break this early on in the show and the good mood will be forgotten by the time the phone lines open. Borderline.

03 ESTONIA
Tanja / Amazing
Tanja has the benefit of being the first entrant with an instantly recognisable eurosong. She has many things going for her - a spectacular number, good dancing, good vocals - but I am not convinced the song is memorable enough. Estonia had luck on their side last year and made it to 10th place in their semi and will need the same sort of luck this time around. Borderline.

04 SWEDEN
Sanna Nielsen / Undo
An elegant, stylish and polished little ballad that really wouldn't be anything special if it wasn't for the magnificent Sanna Nielsen who could breathe life into any old song, basically. This one could prove to have a surprisingly hard time among all the other ballads in this semi and could score lower than expected. Not that we will know until later in the week. Safe.

05 ICELAND
Pollapönk / No prejudice
Positive, loveable and wacko uptempo from Iceland. Would deserve extra points for message and cheerfulness but the big question is if people will find this adorable or plain silly. Borderline.

06 ALBANIA
Hersi Matmuja / One Night's Anger
Sorry, Albania. I have really tried to get my head around this entry and told myself took focus on all the good elements in it and Hersi's really good voice. But it never comes together, which is a bad thing in a televote. Out.

07 RUSSIA
Tomalchevy Sisters / Shine
Let's call a spade a spade, shall we. This is a pretty weak song performed in a not too convincing way, with special effects to cover up for this fact. Had this song represented Switzerland we wouldn't for a second consider it a potential qualifier. The past has proved that any country can fail in a semi final, Russia will too one day. Perhaps sooner than we think. Borderline.

08 AZERBAIJAN
Dilara Kazimova  / Start A Fire
This isn't the first time that Azerbaijan has bought a lovely tune to send off to Eurovision, but it is not all that often that they find suitable talent to carry the song for them. Dilara has a wonderful voice and really makes this song come alive. Safe.

09 UKRAINE
Maria Yaremchuk / Tick Tock
How to take a weak song and dress it up to kill. Everything looks and sounds perfect here and for three minutes most people will fail to notice how little of a song is really hidden underneath it all. I just ask myself what the Latvian Cake to Bake would have sounded like if the same Swedish production team would have worked on that one instead. Safe.

10 BELGIUM
Axel Hirsoux / Mother
In a final with few ballads and few big voices, this one would be bang in the final. But when you have a large variety to choose from you have the right to be picky. And this bombastic, almost parodic, entry could soon prove too much for the viewers. Poor Axel would have deserved a much better song, something to better showcase his voice, but now he just find himself stuck in that annoyingly high-pitched register most of the time. Borderline.

11 MOLDOVA
Christina Scarlat / Wild Soul
At first sight, there are many things I like here: the voice, the presence, the sound of it all. But before three minutes come to an end I realise this is the most insipid of all songs tonight. Not the worst but the one provoking the least amount of emotion in me. Bad sign. Out.

12 SAN MARINO
Valentina Monetta / Maybe
It doesn't help much that this is the best part of the Siegel/Monetta-trilogy. It sounds like a good album track from the early 80's that will be liked by most but will be nobody's favourite. Goodbye, thank you and please try another songwriter next year. Out.

13 PORTUGAL
Suzy / Quero ser tua
Portugal's comeback could have been more sophisticated than this lambada-flavoured schlager-lite, but after three pompous and very serious entries this could come across as nothing but jaunty and likeable. Likely to get thumbs down from the juries but if the margins are on her side, televoting could take Suzy to the final. Borderline.

14 NETHERLANDS
The Common Linnets / Calm After The Storm
For the second year running, the Dutch send in a low-key quality song that is atypical for eurovision but that could have a very prosperous life after the contest. It just has to work. Safe.

15 MONTENEGRO
Sergej Ćetković / Moj svijet

The only Balkan ballad in the running is well performed and should sail smoothly into the final, especially since the dancer on roller skates - that created a number of question marks after the first rehearsals - seems to have found a good place in the camera work. Safe.

16 HUNGARY

Kállay Saunders / Running

A confident performer with a catchy chorus and a slick stage show performing last after a line-up with a few too many slow songs? Probably no winner come Saturday but could very well be the one with the highest scores tonight. Safe.

What really complicates this prediction are all these borderline entries that all could sneak into top ten but could equally well end up outside. But my ten qualifiers tonight are: Armenia, Estonia, Sweden, Iceland, Russia, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Netherlands, Montenegro, Hungary.

Estonia and Iceland are wishful thinking. As for Russia, I wouldn't mind replacing them with Portugal or Latvia. And then there's Belgium - at the back of my head I think they have a fair chance of qualifying but all the songs on my list would deserve it more. And if the first envelope contains something like San Marino, then anything is possible.

Tonight we will know. The show starts at 21:00 CET and can be seen live here.

A 7th place is no good in Sweden

You didn't really expect Sweden to just sit back and take it easy for a couple of years just because Loreen won two years ago, did you? SVT would love to snatch back the trophy and show who is in charge - and Sanna Nielsen being a big favourite with the OGAE network suits the Swedes perfectly.

After last night's jury final - the important rehearsal that the juries watch before they cast their votes - the Swedish press seems to be truly on the train as well, whispering about a possible victory on Saturday night.

This is where it is getting problematic. If they are wrong and my gut feeling is right, that is. If "Undo" really is a tiny bit too polished and pleasant to grab the really high ballad points and that perhaps a 7th place seems reasonable and most possible.

In many countries a 7th place would be celebrated like a victory. If Portugal or Montenegro or Finland came home with a 7th place there would be huge happy headlines, and the general feeling that somebody added an extra day of Christmas. Not in Sweden, however.

If Sanna ends in 7th place, the Swedish press will call it a miscalculation if they are in a kind mood. Somebody will call it a fiasco. Somebody will surely question if this will have negative consequences on Sanna's career and so on.

This is what being fairly successful does to your expectations. There is definitely nothing wrong with Sweden's ambitions - I applaud them - but when you get used to doing well you expect that every time.

Sanna is surely not the only one with this kind of pressure. I wonder how the UK press would react to a 7th place for Molly - would they cheer for the best result in five years or would they label it a disappointment and ignore her from that point on?

I'm afraid I know what I think.