ESC 2019: Tobson's Final Say

I both love and hate this moment. When the time has come to try and predict who will actually win. Had you asked me in late March, I would have been rock steady in my prediction but since then all songs started living their own lives and now I have no idea.

I sincerely have no idea. Depending on what mood Europe is in, I'd say something around ten different countries could realistically win.

Here are tonight's entries and what I expect from them as the votes start coming in.

01. MALTA Michela / Chameleon
Out of the three songs wishing to be Fuego, Malta is the one that lost most of its momentum after the semis. It will be a great party starter but a slightly awkward performance doesn't do it any favours. Bottom half.
My grade: 2/5

02. ALBANIA Jonida Maliqi / Ktheju tokës
My biggest surprise qualifier from the second semi is a worthy finalist but that's the end of the fun. The slightly stiff live performance and the overly long wait for the pretty chorus will keep this one way down the scoreboard.
My grade: 2/5

03. CZECH REPUBLIC Lake Malawi / Friend Of A Friend
Just like in the first semi final, these happy guys will feel relaxed and upbeat and the audience will love and remember them enough to give them a chance of reaching top ten.
My grade: 4/5

04. GERMANY S!sters / Sister
Among all the potential winners in this lineup it feels good to be able to discard at least somebody. Germany seems all set to conquer their third last place in five contests and any result better than that should be hailed like victory.
My grade: 0/5

05. RUSSIA Sergey Lazarev / Scream
I feared the worst but Russia did the unexpected and delivered a slick and tasteful stage show and Sergey shines like the star he is even if the song is a bit on the weak side. A potential winner but not the most likely of the candidates on offer.
My grade: 3/5

06. DENMARK Leonora / Love Is Forever
Cute and likeable but coming after Russia reduces Denmark than little more than an extra interval act when people top up their drinks and snacks.
My grade: 2/5

07. SAN MARINO Serhat / Say Na Na Na
Sometimes you need more than three minutes to get all you need from the kitchen. Take your time, you won't miss much here. But at least San Marino will go back home with their best ever placing.
My grade: 1/5

08. NORTH MACEDONIA Tamara / Proud
Tamara did what I had stopped hoping for: North Macedonia keeping their performance focused and clean and powerful. A well deserved qualification and - possibly - the chance of grabbing a 10th place or so.
My grade: 3/5

09. SWEDEN John Lundvik / Too Late For Love
A deceptively lean visual appearance in the semi could easily fool you but this is arguably the best pop song in the running with a few really effective hooks. If John and The Mamas have an extra gear to put in now, this could carry all the way to a seventh victory.
My grade: 5/5

10. SLOVENIA Zala & Gašper / Sebi
This could fall either way in the final: either this loveliest of pop whispers is instantly forgotten or stands out like an oasis of calm and taste.
My grade: 4/5

11. CYPRUS Tamta / Replay
Like Malta, Cyprus has gone from hot favourite to something of a microwave dish. A possible radio hit in the making but nowhere near the top ten tonight.
My grade: 3/5

12. THE NETHERLANDS Duncan Laurence / Arcade
Intense and sensitive and clearly a potential winner. That would be awesome but I still wonder if that piano is coming between Duncan and the audience in the end.
My grade: 4/5

13. GREECE Katerine Duska / Better Love
One of my biggest personal favourites is floating around in space slightly below all the expected favourites. Divisive but hopefully a surprise in the making.
My grade: 4/5

14. ISRAEL Kobi Marimi / Home
Another divisive voice and presence but less of an instant hit. Israel should not run the risk of repeating a last place for the host country but we are talking right hand side of the board here.
My grade: 2/5

15. NORWAY Keiino / Spirit In The Sky
This happiest of trios storm in at the right time with their higher tempo. Had their their visual appearance been as colourful as the song in itself they could have been in with a chance.
My grade: 2/5

16. UNITED KINGDOM Michael Rice / Bigger Than Us
The song John Lundvik almost went to Melodifestivalen with. Going for "Too Late For Love" was the best career decision ever. Yet another UK flop coming up.
My grade: 1/5

17. ICELAND Hatari / Hatrið mun sigra
It could be that the EBU executives will not breathe for three minutes at this point in the show. If all favourites divide the big points evenly between them, something way less mainstream could sneak up into first place. There could be a sensation waiting around the corner here.
My grade: 4/5

18. ESTONIA Victor Crone / Storm 
The biggest disappointment on Tuesday was this non-song making the cut, meaning it will take up a space for someone who would have deserved it more.
My grade: 0/5

19. BELARUS Zena / Like It
Safe and harmless teeny pop performed by a really likeable young soloist. Should be a bit too formulaic to grab on to the really high points but still remarkably competent for being Belarus.
My grade: 3/5

20. AZERBAIJAN Chingiz / Truth
You can easily tell Azerbaijan is going for gold for the first time since 2013 and this loaded package could get very close to that first place. The only drawback is that the singer and the presentation are more interesting than the actual song.
My grade: 4/5

21. FRANCE Bilal Hassani / Roi
Mixed emotions à go go in the French entry. Bilal is a lovely little presence and his message is terrific. His stage show has made France shoot up the betting lists but the question remains: can a song as weak and generic as this actually win?
My grade: 1/5

22. ITALY Mahmood / Soldi
This is such a fun contest. First we don't see any Arab guys on the LGBT-spectre and suddenly we get in a row. Mahmood is clearly the better of the two, equipped with a fantastic pop composition with bite and attitude. Should be in the top three.
My grade: 5/5

23. SERBIA Nevena / Krona
By now you are surely out of drinks and snacks again. Run to the kitchen now, Nevena has a strong voice and you will hear her all the way. She is good, the song is fairly standard.
My grade: 1/5

24. SWITZERLAND Luca Hänni / She Got Me
Switzerland has been nowhere near a victory for over twenty-five year. Is it time for thunder to strike? It is not impossible but this could also turn out to be just one pop act too many in this lineup.
My grade: 3/5

25. AUSTRALIA Kate Miller-Heidke / Zero Gravity
I have to admit this is a visually stunning number. Had it been matched by a better song, this could be our winner.
My grade: 1/5

26. SPAIN Miki / La venda
The perfect upbeat ending to the running order with the best Spanish entry in many years. If Miki remembers not to jump up and down so much and focus a bit on his singing, this could even be a contender for the lower regions of the top ten.
My grade: 3/5

So how will this end? I still have no idea and I have grown more and more clueless throughout the week. So what do you do when you have no idea? You go back to the last time you thought you knew anything. This is my guess for how the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest will end.

01. Sweden, 02. The Netherlands, 03. Italy, 04. Switzerland, 05. Russia, 06. France, 07. Azerbaijan, 08. Iceland, 09. Australia, 10. Greece, 11. North Macedonia, 12. Spain, 13. Norway, 14. Cypern, 15. Czech republic, 16. Malta, 17. Slovenia, 18. Denmark, 19. Serbia, 20. Belarus, 21. Israel, 22. Albania, 23. San Marino, 24. United Kingdom, 25. Estonia, 26. Germany.

Bring on the voting and then we'll see how this works out. If you want to talk to me and nurse me through it, feel free to do so on Twitter:

Tweet to @TobsonHelsinki

See you on the other side!